tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76186602011-11-27T23:31:03.167Z"The drama of an election comes from the combination of a plot where the end is not known: we don't know who will win (in some cases, who has won), whether the result will be accepted by the loser, and how well or badly the defeated will behave."Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.comBlogger2711100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-9212953335859048622010-11-08T13:29:00.003Z2010-11-08T14:11:17.430Z

After reading reports of voter intimidation in Burma (also called the Union of Myanmar), which has been under Socialist military rule since 1962, I thought a round up of how the election is supposed to work would be in order.Wikipedia has a page dedicated to the elections which provides background and a lot of comment about how unfair they are, but no information about the procedures.Here's a

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-28223370489852814382010-11-03T23:41:00.005Z2010-11-03T23:51:39.827Z

...the House of Representatives votes, state by state, for the President. This means that if Great Plains were a state with 1 congressperson (Democrat), that person would presumably back the Democrat. If Metropolis were a state with 31 representatives (16 Republicans and 15 Democrats) then assuming party lines hold, that's one vote for the Republicans.Here's a chart showing how this looked before

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-39557097600086138222010-11-03T18:29:00.004Z2010-11-03T18:37:32.085Z

At the time of writing, CBS News reckons there are 28 Republican Governors, 15 Democrats, 1 Independent and six results to come. However, Brian Dubie the Republican candidate in Vermont, has reportedly conceded, so I make it:Republicans 28Republicans lead in 3 (Connecticut, Maine, Oregon)Democrats 16Democrats lead in 2 (Illinois, Minnesota)Independent 1N.B. Although the five remaining contests

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-2438454509551664852010-10-19T13:28:00.002Z2010-10-19T13:39:54.935Z

RealClearPolitics has a report on polling of people who have already voted in New Mexico, a sort of postal vote exit poll. Current estimate is 60% Republican 36% Democrat. The same sort of polling in the state in 2008, found that although only 10% of voters had cast their ballot early, yet the exit poll disproportionately favoured the eventual winner. RCP speculates that this might be repeated

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-3005658135448140942010-10-18T13:43:00.002Z2010-10-18T14:24:36.649Z

In 2012, the U.S. presidential election will be contested with a new electoral college (538 votes), based on the redistribution of congressional seats (435 of them) according to the 2010 U.S. Census. However, in the event of a tie (269-269) the back-up system for electing the President kicks in.The current House of Representatives at the time of the 2012 election, that's the people who are

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-65477757165374288422010-09-27T22:33:00.007Z2010-09-28T00:05:07.010Z

A POLITICO/George Washington Unversity Battleground opinion poll highlights U.S. President Barack Obama's midterm election problems and offers some insights into just how different the U.S. electorate is to the rest of the Western world. Commentators have latched onto the figure that only 38% would welcome the President's re-election.If the Republicans had a figure with the ability to communicate

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-4322597431630510252010-01-28T14:10:00.002Z2010-01-28T14:13:27.694Z

My Tuesday podcast about Massachusetts and what the social media means for elections, with some thoughts about libertarian parties in the UK and the USA can be found here.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8335477005431233212010-01-26T01:34:00.003Z2010-01-26T02:21:11.530Z

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts has not yet officially declared the results of the January 19th special election for Senator.It turns out the best web campaign won.Here are the results as reported in the Boston Globe, which has a neat map and town-by-town table here.Scott Brown (Republican) 1,168,107 votes (52%)Martha Coakley (Democrat) 1,058,682 votes (48%)Joe Kennedy (Libertarian

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1144269539375647642010-01-26T01:30:00.000Z2010-01-26T02:24:56.678Z

I like comparing election forecasts from politicians, people who are considering voting but don't watch the political programmes on TV, opinion pollsters, market traders and bookies. The people I never ask, except for entertainment are policy analysts, because they seem to be the only people more clueless than politicians at recognising when they're about to take a good kicking in an election.One

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-40062095352691538252010-01-20T02:33:00.001Z2010-01-20T02:35:24.493Z

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-15069226174681882912010-01-20T01:26:00.004Z2010-01-20T02:20:10.587Z

Due to five hour time difference, I'm not liveblogging the Massachusetts special election count for the next few hours.So here are some good places for readers who live in more favourable timezones or who are prepared for an all-nighter:Fivethirtyeight Especially because it has a live Twitter feed.If you're a sadist and the Democrats are losing, much wailing and gnashing of the teeth here. ;-)N.B

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-92226258152822380282010-01-20T00:14:00.003Z2010-01-20T00:39:25.714Z

David Axelrod, the Senior Advisor to US President Barack Obama, and who knows a thing or two about elections, told a gathering of reporters before voting ended in Massachusetts yesterday, that "he thought Brown ran a very good campaign, saying that 'as a practitioner, my hat's off to him'." (AP via Breitbart)Leaving aside the wisdom of making such a statement when your own party's candidate is

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-7218362089238631032010-01-19T13:03:00.005Z2010-01-19T16:27:21.102Z

"I've seen it translate into dollars. I've seen it translate into traffic. I've seen it translate into media news stories," he said. "How that translates into votes, I don't think people have figured that out yet."Justin Hart, director of new media for the Senate campaign of Chuck DeVore (Republican) in California.Over at RealClearPolitics (which doesn't have a share button for its Politics

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-54385864208663265522010-01-18T23:23:00.009Z2010-01-19T01:31:56.324Z

Sometimes, one should back a hunch. Always, one should write it down.A week ago, I took my first look at the election campaigns of the two main party candidates for the Special Election in Massachusetts, USA, to replace the late Senator Edward Kennedy.My first impression, especially given how the Democrats had steamrollered the Republicans at the 2008 presidential and other federal elections that

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-79790550109042948792009-11-20T00:40:00.004Z2009-11-20T01:06:04.719Z

The new office of European President has been filled by a cabal of national politicians with the result that Herman van Rompuy, Belgium's Prime Minister, has been "elected."It's worth noting just how undemocratic this choice is.When Napoleon Bonaparte wanted to declare himself the First Consul of France (and dictator of most of what is now the European Union), he held a plebiscite. If he had lost

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-6469279491931917732009-11-04T12:43:00.004Z2009-11-04T13:56:24.316Z

The gubernatorial elections [here {very good map of New Jersey voting} and here] in the U.S. states of New Jersey and Virginia have produced two gains for the Republican Party from the Democrats, supporting opinion polls that suggested the opposition is able to mobilise a majority of voters on the issues of the economy, excessive public spending and health care reform.One problem for the

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-405519184413126922009-11-04T01:01:00.006Z2009-11-04T03:57:30.137Z

UPDATE: NY 23:Candidate Party Votes (%) Bill Owens Democrat 47,826 49.1% Doug Hoffman Conservative 44,349 45.5 Dede Scozzafava Republican 5,294 5.4 67% reportingAs of time of writing (03:54 GMT), the gap has been narrowing. Scozzafava's votes are thought to mostly be absentee ballots which would have been posted before she withdrew.UPDATE: Local media

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-17229411904639472242009-11-04T00:55:00.002Z2009-11-04T01:01:11.876Z

Scott Rasmussen, one of the more reliable pollsters in the U.S.A., has written a thoughtful round up of the issues surrounding the New York State's 23rd congressional district election, which took place on November 3, and which has not yet been called.He writes:while Republican voters overwhelmingly consider themselves conservative, only 56% of conservative voters consider themselves to be

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-79972019076061432722009-06-18T00:38:00.004Z2009-06-18T01:03:38.493Z

The drama of an election comes from the combination of a plot where the end is not known: we don't know who will win (in some cases, who has won), whether the result will be accepted by the loser, and how well or badly the defeated will behave.But in an election with the D'Hondt method of proportional representation (that rolls of the tongue!), it seems like almost everyone wins something, and

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-46210697330570219342009-06-16T10:46:00.002Z2009-06-16T10:58:21.703Z

If this isn't power, what is?Twitter has re-scheduled a maintenance downtime to about 1.30am local time in Tehran, to allow the protesters to organise and agitate against the recent election result (which "concerns" U.S. President Barack Obama - whatever that means).MG Siegler at TechCrunch has the story:Twitter had been planning to have a 90 minute downtime tonight for maintenance. Given what’s

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-12740644710123494932009-06-16T10:33:00.004Z2009-06-16T10:46:41.945Z

If it's good enough for Salam Pax...I've been too long away from this blog. For reasons that are not really nice (the company I worked for has gone into liquidation) I now have time in the day with a computer that actually works. Hiatus over, at least for now.I have completed my statistical compilation of the UK's European Parliamentary election data and will be issuing my analysis over coming

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8130323919190593322008-09-11T02:31:00.006Z2008-09-11T02:50:43.425Z

Here's what the Democratic Party's website shows on the "Lipstick on a Pig" issue.Now I wonder who they could possibly be trying to portray?What tasteful mock-ups of Barack Obama do you suppose would be considered reasonable?[hat tip Michelle Malkin]

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-26158565055123404312008-09-11T01:27:00.005Z2008-09-11T01:48:56.910Z

If Senator Obama did not intend the insult, why did he repeat it on the Letterman show? Bush Derangement Syndrome has been replaced by Palin Derangement Syndrome. The Democratic Party candidate for the presidency of the U.S.A. has got it bad.His excuse for the now notorious "Lipstick on a Pig" jibe at his vice-presidential opponent Governor Sarah Palin is:"Keep in mind, technically, had I meant

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-45556053105738527422008-09-06T13:26:00.010Z2008-09-06T14:49:51.118Z

I really hope this isn't the reason Senator Barack Obama loses the 2008 U.S. presidential election:If Senator Obama thinks he's going to win the NINE states he claims to have visited that don't exist he might have a problem: overestimating his Electoral College votes. He said he hadn't visited Alaska or Hawaii so he can only have visited 48 real states at the most. That's a minimum overestimate

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-11934453769176478202008-06-01T00:52:00.002Z2008-06-01T01:00:55.118Z

From Breitbart.com: "We will leave here more united than we came," she said.Some audience members heckled her in response. "Lipstick on a pig!" one shouted."We just blew the election!" a woman in the audience shouted. The crowd was divided between cheering Obama supporters and booing Clinton supporters."This isn't unity! Count all the votes!" another audience member yelled.At stake was what the

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-88394527077714311342008-05-13T17:19:00.003Z2008-05-13T17:27:47.884Z

All right, this site doesn't normally do satire. But this is priceless.Hat-tip: Russell Whitaker.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-6784965307267854912008-04-13T13:15:00.003Z2008-04-13T13:49:35.839Z

Fivethirtyeight.com is a project by a Daily Kos contributor I've mentioned previously, here and here and which has some flaws, despite what I reckon are genuine attempts to avoid overstating Democratic party hopes for November.I think it's a very good addition to the debate about what will happen, as opposed to what we might like to happen or wish would happen. As such, I have no hesitation in

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-13621903247271818462008-03-22T10:41:00.002Z2008-03-22T11:30:12.071Z

Daily Kos contributor DHinMI seems almost frantic to persuade Senator Hillary Clinton to stop her campaign, before the Pennsylvania and other primaries that remain.See here, here, and here.For what it's worth, I agree with the analysis and that the only serious chance Mrs Clinton has is to see her rival, Senator Barack Obama, destroyed by a smear or a drip-drip of innuendo, like this.Anyone who

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-13129195862770003342008-03-15T12:33:00.004Z2008-03-15T12:54:57.547Z

From that bastion of the great "right-wing conspiracy," the New York Times, comes this:Delegate Battles Embroil 2 StatesRemember Florida 2000? You ain't seen nothin' yet!There's one lot wants their money back.Reflecting how tense the situation has become, influential fund-raisers for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton have stepped up their behind-the-scenes pressure on national party leaders to

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-73497886914416252692008-03-06T18:04:00.002Z2008-03-06T18:11:24.900Z

Here's my take on the appeal of the current U.S. primaries and caucuses:It’s like a less rational version of The Apprentice, with guns and lawyers. And right now, we don’t know how one of the finalists is going to get picked.I think part of the appeal of elections is that, unlike a TV show, we don’t really know what’s going to happen.I mean, who predicted the California Democratic party primary

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-28565224270878029132008-03-06T00:43:00.002Z2008-03-06T01:05:09.446Z

After the drama of the other day, it all dribbles away for a bit.Saturday 8 March - Arkansas Democratic Special State Convention and Wyoming Democratic County CaucusesTuesday 11 March - Mississippi Democratic PrimarySaturday 15 March - Democrats Abroad Democratic Regional CaucusesThursday 3 April - District of Columbia State Party CommitteeThere is a multitude of smaller events until the next big

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-60619966797143214382008-03-05T22:05:00.004Z2008-03-05T22:11:07.897Z

Glad to be of service.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-12321904455556421502008-03-05T20:31:00.005Z2008-04-13T13:50:21.172Z

I may not have been very brave in my predictions yesterday, but they have been fairly well vindicated. This Super Tuesday to follow the Super Duper Tuesday of February 4 has failed to produce a knock-out blow for the favorite, this time Senator Barack Obama (Illinois). Instead it is Senator Hillary Clinton (New York) who is relatively better off after last night's efforts.Here's how it ended up:1

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-12537188075022113832008-03-05T20:03:00.003Z2008-03-05T20:30:19.203Z

O.K. so I said:On a different note, there is NO WAY Mrs Clinton quits the contest if she narrows the Obama delegate lead, winning three states in the process. A legal argument over who won Texas is as good as a win for these purposes.Put it this way. I don't think I'm more self-delusional about my own importance to the world than Hillary Clinton is, but speaking as an election candidate myself,

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-6058427749996862262008-03-05T01:05:00.019Z2008-03-05T03:08:56.799Z

03:07I'm turning in. At this stage it looks survivable for Clinton, which is therefore a moral victory. A bit like Super Duper Tuesday (a month ago!) was the moment when Obama survived the Clinton juggernaught (which ground to a halt until today). This time it's Obama's relentless thrust that has been blocked. A very good night for John McCain.Latest projection: Texas close, Ohio Clinton, Rhode

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-18366626477870963102008-03-04T19:32:00.003Z2008-03-04T19:59:27.833Z

O.K.Head on the block time. My gut predictions:Texas is a popular vote win for Senator Hillary Clinton (New York) over Senator Barack Obama (Illinois), but the delegate count won't reflect it.Ohio is a Clinton win. But, if it turns out very close, credit should go to the Quinnipiac poll, which is the only one showing Clinton's lead dipping towards the end.Vermont and Rhode Island are

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-15771117547982233852008-03-04T18:50:00.003Z2008-03-04T19:32:49.039Z

So either it was something I said, or Senator Hillary Clinton (New York) is now the left-wing candidate.Joking aside, the only media ferociously battling for Clinton that I'm aware of was Fox News. The only pundits talking her up were Rush Limbaugh and people who loathe the Republican party candidate (Arizona Senator John McCain), such as Darwin-basher Ann Coulter.Hilariously, or should that be

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-69263725421724484862008-03-03T22:00:00.003Z2008-03-03T22:47:46.096Z

Since I now have a crude map template, here's where the action is. This time both parties are having their contests in the same states.Ohio (OH), Rhode Island (RI), Texas (TX) and Vermont (VT).The delegate allocations are different for each party and the same type of election may not even be happening. But I can give the number of Electoral college votes and how significant they were in the last

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-38384123979974451772008-03-03T20:19:00.004Z2008-03-03T22:00:16.064Z

The opinion polls are closing... and I should have put down my misgivings.ZOGBY!In my view, the least reliable opinion pollster is Zogby: let's just say that the next time one of his polls overstates the conservative vote please send me a copy so I can frame it.Guess who predicted, most loudly, that Hillary Clinton had lost New Hampshire? Until the New York Senator came back and won, that is.And

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-48188973764669356632008-03-03T08:42:00.003Z2008-03-03T08:55:34.950Z

A nice offer of a compromise from Florida Governor Charlie Crist: the Republican Governor is offering to allow the state to pay for a re-run of the Democratic presidential primary. How nice!Before opponents of wasting public money jump up (I'm one of them) it's worth pondering any possible ulterior motives."I think it's very important though that those delegates are seated," Gov Crist said.Of

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-34846261139837301382008-03-02T10:10:00.002Z2008-03-02T10:24:12.597Z

You don't have to be a genius to figure out that Senator Hillary Clinton is the candidate Republican strategists would rather face in November. She's the scarecrow candidate, the one person capable of mobilizing 40% of Democrat voters to come out in a blizzard to vote "uncommitted" in a Michigan primary. And that's when the effort is also going in from Daily Kos to get Democrats to go and vote

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-362451071352292072008-03-01T15:06:00.004Z2008-03-02T01:01:57.080Z

Of the 50 U.S. states and Washington D.C., which between them provide the 538 electoral colleges votes for a presidential election, exactly six have been won by the winners of the 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004 elections. It is therefore tempting to argue that the entire 2008 election can be defined by which candidate will win most or all of these states.Intriguingly, all

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-20295263663556400662008-02-29T17:57:00.003Z2008-02-29T18:13:58.203Z

I'm not well, but this brought a chuckle: To: Interested PartiesFrom: The Clinton CampaignDate: Friday, February 29, 2008RE: Obama Must-WinsThe media has anointed Barack Obama the presumptive nominee and he’s playing the part.With an eleven state winning streak coming out of February, Senator Obama is riding a surge of momentum that has enabled him to pour unprecedented resources into Texas, Ohio

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-50690064790324246512008-02-29T16:32:00.002Z2008-02-29T16:57:14.877Z

This is not how to win friends.Of course, if one hired people who knew what they were doing when they decided to allow 11 states to be won by Senator Barack Obama on the trot (which aren't important)...So having lost the votes where there was an election, scraped about half the vote when there wasn't another candidate (in Florida and Michigan), and taken the super-delegates for granted to the

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-36729663571655532492008-02-29T14:49:00.002Z2008-02-29T15:22:58.325Z

I wrote a couple of days ago that an attempt to extrapolate the result of this year's U.S. presidential election "overstates the Democratic position."Here's why.My radar for possible bias comes from the Hillary Clinton versus John McCain match-up.Poblano's list of variables is comprehensive:1. John Kerry vote margin, 2004;2. Fundraising;3. Percentage of Baptists, especially Southern Baptists (

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-18129646423658597442008-02-27T19:48:00.003Z2008-02-29T23:32:43.217Z

A view from the Daily Kos which scrambles the data from 2004, weights it and finds that Hillary could get mashed in November, while Obama becomes the biggest Democrat winner since 1964OK, my first impression is it overstates the Democratic party's position, by perhaps overcompensating some effects (I'll have a closer look before elaborating).But here's the bottom line:Barack Obama: 289 electoral

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-39587483332158228522008-02-25T22:10:00.003Z2008-02-25T22:35:49.182Z

Was it the U.S. Democratic party that complained about President George W. Bush's failure to balance the budget?Perhaps this story from Hillary Clinton's "invoice challenged" campaign says something about character, integrity, financial competence, narcissism, empathy for working people, and public reputation. Or perhaps not.It was just $2,492.63, a pittance, really, alongside million-dollar

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-15318162788696546912008-02-21T21:50:00.006Z2008-02-21T23:25:45.725Z

Momentum is bad enough against you, but when little things go wrong too...1) Hillary Clinton's campaign, because it was based on the assumption that there would not be a serious challenger left after "Super Duper Tuesday" (February 5), did not have a strategy for dealing with what is happening now.In my view this is exactly what strategists are supposed to do anyway. I would personally be ashamed

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-38412694783743306782008-02-21T02:18:00.002Z2008-02-21T02:45:07.257Z

...in Paris, Texas, presumably.The ineptitude of the Clinton campaign reaches the Grauniad, which itself has a less than perfect record at interfering in U.S. elections.I like this extract:Why have the Clintons campaigned so poorly in this election? It may just be that they were out-organised - and the story then is how a solitary junior senator from Illinois managed to put together such an

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-71033280101975010792008-02-18T01:39:00.003Z2008-02-18T01:42:43.294Z

I don't get this. ;-)Thanks Chris Muir.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-68933048175536675272008-02-18T00:57:00.002Z2008-02-18T01:17:22.841Z

I admit it: I like a winner.Here's my favourite bit:this would be the first time in a long time that Clinton and Obama would be together in a place where they'd be competing for applause.As you might have guessed, it wasn't much of a competition. Obama is so vastly superior to Clinton in delivering a speech it's almost unfair. He was greeted with an enthusiastic standing ovation, received

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-46746672501907134052008-02-14T02:07:00.002Z2008-02-14T02:10:55.268Z

OK, so I've been trawling RealClearPolitics. Sue me.Here's Clinton's Chief Strategist explaining the path to power.If I understand it right, Hillary needs to lose more states in order to emulate Walter Mondale(!) or Jimmy Carter(!).As a well written exercise in bullshit, it's hard to beat.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-85880229074448450382008-02-14T00:45:00.003Z2008-02-14T01:45:12.581Z

RealClearPolitics has the graphic.I said some time ago, Senator Obama has the vibe of a winner.In a well executed positional attack, there may come a point where the defender is so constrained in terms of having limited possible moves that every move she makes, weakens her position. It's called Zugzwang and was a particular specialty of Aron Nimzowitch.Here's a classic example from chess: Fritz

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-63738753642217342752008-02-13T00:43:00.000Z2008-02-13T00:45:04.569Z

From ABC News:Asked whether he intends to run for the Senate, [Mike] Huckabee said he would sooner dye his hair green, tattoo himself and go on a "rock tour with Amy Winehouse," reports ABC News' Kevin Chupka.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-572033405203074172008-01-30T02:24:00.000Z2008-01-30T03:01:55.124Z

2:44 GMTA frustrating night due to Florida's unique election style. Incidentally, for the Republicans it's a winner takes all contest but the delegation size was halved because the primary is held earlier than the party's rules allow. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is claiming victory and not claiming victory, and she is but she is not including the delegates from Florida in her camp. Under

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-85340026160418924972008-01-29T00:32:00.000Z2008-01-29T00:59:42.107Z

I only came across this now. Penelope Trunk, who I read mostly for her advice on careers and managing work, has this on Iowa and the new generation of U.S. voters and activists:My brother just started school at the University of Iowa, and this was his first caucus. He describes a room totally crammed full of young people: “It was basically all the students caucusing for Obama and the adults

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-46381280248668709692008-01-28T19:48:00.001Z2008-01-28T19:55:15.666Z

Not a great day for the Clintons, unless you buy the conspiracy theory that Bill doesn't want to be Hillary's First Lady.Among the news of the Kennedys backing Barack Obama, I saw this today from Dick Morris.In 1990, Morris found Bill behind in the polls in a Governorship election:When he learned of his decline in the polls, he immediately blamed me, accusing me of spending too much time with

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-45818888225267609232008-01-27T23:54:00.000Z2008-01-28T01:35:51.144Z

From the New York Times, it may not be over for the Rudolf Giuliani campaign. The former New York Mayor has banked on going for Florida and the 20 or so states that vote on February 5. However, the polls show him in big trouble, having been ahead for months.It seems that:There has also been a flood of early ballots from Republican voters, which has, again, already exceeded the turnout in the

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-14590562054470200052008-01-27T15:36:00.000Z2008-01-27T16:53:23.852Z

...seems to be the latest bizarre message from the Clinton campaign.The Associated Press is not exactly where I normally go looking for dirt on Democrats, but this sums up the situation nicely:Clinton campaign strategists denied any intentional effort to stir the racial debate. But they said they believe the fallout has had the effect of branding Obama as "the black candidate," a tag that could

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-58798866331973821922008-01-27T01:39:00.000Z2008-01-27T02:02:16.474Z

Ron Gunzburger, who runs the very comprehensivePolitics1 blog, says it all on his Facebook profile status:Ron Gunzburgeris thrilled that Obama won a LANDSLIDE victory in South Carolina. Congrats to the SC Dems for soundly rejecting the racially divisive Clinton strategy.Updated about an hour agoI think we can take it as read that we are not looking at a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket for

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-22726720598993173422008-01-22T22:40:00.000Z2008-01-22T23:08:41.954Z

Last weekend's South Carolina primary election for the Republicans did not get any coverage here, for which I apologize. The timing was bad.However, I did wonder if the conservative blogs who seemed to doubt if Fred Thompson was quitting after coming third in what had been described as his "firewall" weren't putting hope before realism.Unlike Ron Paul, who has the record of standing for President

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-6270639545430650062008-01-20T02:06:00.000Z2008-01-20T02:13:37.591Z

I found a county in Nevada that voted Ron Paul ahead of the rest:Nye County Giuliani 33 votes 3%Huckabee 172 votes 14%Hunter 18 votes 1%McCain 134 votes 11%Paul 415 votes 34%Romney 399 33%Thompson 55 4%Total 1,226 100%33 of 33 precincts reportingFigures from Nevada Republican Party.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-77097120178920856902008-01-20T00:47:00.001Z2008-01-20T01:30:50.025Z

This is the result of the primary season for the Ronbots. Their man is holding second position behind Mitt Romney in Nevada.At 00:49 GMT Sunday morning:Mitt Romney 22,629 51%Ron Paul 6,077 14%John McCain 5,641 13%Mike Huckabee 3,607 8%Fred Thompson 3,518 8%Rudy Giuliani 1,907 4%Duncan Hunter 890 2%With 2% of precincts to report, so it's very unlikely to change, except possibly between

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-42248072859312546302008-01-17T02:00:00.000Z2008-01-17T02:05:05.239Z

Ok, so we've had the speech of the campaign from "uncommitted."Here's the quote of the (Republican) campaign:"These primaries are like the Special Olympics: Everybody gets a ribbon!"Jim Treacher. [via Instapundit]

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-29573234702055122962008-01-17T01:51:00.000Z2008-01-17T01:54:40.009Z

Uncommitted wins Michigan.Victory speech here.[Hat tip Instapundit.]

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-54055826732732874562008-01-16T23:52:00.000Z2008-01-17T00:12:58.556Z

In Michigan, a state John Kerry won in 2004 with a 3.42% lead over an unpopular George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton scored 55% in an effectively uncontested election.Now pretend she has a Republican opponent in November.You can see why the Republicans reckon they have a chance against the New York Senator. Let's not forget that she has vastly more resources than all her opponents combined, if we

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-83094915328597911282008-01-16T23:00:00.000Z2008-01-17T00:14:42.582Z

The LA Times has noticed Ron Paul "thumped" Giuliani and Thomson In Michigan. Overall, Representative Ron Paul (Texas) is ahead of both Giuliani and Thompson, both of whom have to do well in at least one of South Carolina, Nevada and Florida. Thanks to the "Ronbots," he has more cash than his closest rivals. As he is putting out an ideological message rather than merely seeking the nomination,

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-40906939324672043012008-01-16T01:33:00.000Z2008-01-16T02:28:29.450Z

I'm not staying up for the Michigan primary results, but you can follow the Republican-leaning viewpoint here and the Democrat-leaning viewpoint here (not sure if there's a specific thread on Daily Kos yet). Wordy but pretty straight reporting later here.Here are my thoughts for what they're worth.1) The Democrats will go and vote Republican to push Mitt Romney for two reasons. They are

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-73137824048808735962008-01-12T17:30:00.001Z2008-01-12T18:09:56.811Z

The man himself sez about Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich's complaint:I find it somewhat amusing that so many people are demanding the taxpayers of New Hampshire indulge their paranoia by paying for a recount. What I'm not seeing, however, is an effort to raise the money to pay for such a recount. It seems that no one wants to put their money where their mouth is. It's much easier to spread

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-14748535335920025962008-01-11T10:29:00.000Z2008-01-11T10:44:42.445Z

I'm the last minute change of speaker for the Putney Debates in London tonight. The title of my talk is ‘Change at the Top: How the US Election Process Works and What are the Opportunities for Ron Paul?’My audience will mostly be British so it's mostly about explaining just how decentralized the U.S. electoral system is. Because anyone turning up is likey to be a Libertarian, I shall be

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-75962858065626973542008-01-09T08:53:00.000Z2008-01-09T09:02:45.986Z

I don't recall opinion polls getting it this wrong since 1987 in the U.K. General Election, although maybe 1992 was also as bad.Unless Barak Obama wins at least 70% of the remaining votes to count, he has come second to Hillary Clinton.The Republican results are nearer the polls.Yet again, Democrats outvoted Republicans in a battleground state. And the Democrat counting was faster for at least

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8859801228601622612008-01-09T00:37:00.000Z2008-01-09T02:57:50.193Z

02:56Spoke too soon: McCain lead down to 6% over Romney, Clinton down to 2% over Obama. Ron Paul 1% behind Giuliani.02:42Turning in.Final count as I write:DemocratsHillary Clinton 49,941 39%Barack Obama 45,850 36%John Edwards 21,299 17%with 48% results in.(Exit polls now project Clinton win by 2%)RepublicansJohn McCain 36,685 37%Mitt Romney 31,085 31%Mike Huckabee 11,506 12%Rudy Giuliani 8,639 9%

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-34555571998392010182008-01-08T23:48:00.000Z2008-01-09T00:04:12.586Z

New Hampshire has a pretty good record as state that votes the same way as the country as whole, despite not being typical from a demographic point of view.In 2004, John Kerry famously claimed that all he had to do was win there to overturn the 2000 defeat of Al Gore. He was wrong of course, because the 200 Census meant Kerry needed 11 extra electoral college votes than Gore needed the previous

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-68966857164157385202008-01-08T22:00:00.000Z2008-01-08T22:20:15.349Z

For non-European readers, the title of this post is a reference to our version of presidential primaries, the Eurovision Song Contest, or the cultural atrocity to end them all.Two little hamlets in New Hampshire, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, have an exemption which allows them to close the polling station as soon after midnight on election day as all the registered electors have been to

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-86428591801987318992008-01-04T23:59:00.000Z2008-01-05T00:40:19.169Z

Last night's Iowa caucus was a triumph for the U.S. Democratic party's organization and a warning for Republicans. As Kos put it, all the Republicans had to do was give out pieces of paper, let people mark it, count them and put the numbers on a website.The Democrats on the other hand, had to hold informal hustings, jostle around a room to form bunches, get counted, argue, haggle and plead the "

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-8725466506341093792008-01-04T02:49:00.001Z2008-01-04T02:51:42.108Z

The news from Iowa is not great for Hillary Clinton, good for Barak Obama, lousy for Mitt Romney, good for Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Ron Paul leading Rudy Guliani, 3 to 1, is curiousity of the night.I'm turning in. Further updates tomorrow.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-54538644107670814612008-01-04T02:14:00.000Z2008-01-04T02:25:29.584Z

Ron Paul 2,425 11%Rudy Giuliani 830 4%after 25% of precincts reporting. Not bad for the Libertarians. Figure from Associated Press via Washington Post.UPDATE:Giuliani comes back, threatens to overtake John McCain. Ouch! However, Mike Huckabee with less than 5% of the spending of Mitt Romney, appears to be making the case against "money buys elections."Iowa Republican Caucuses Results

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-51667643111010627852008-01-04T01:35:00.000Z2008-01-04T02:41:31.128Z

I'm following the early Iowa caucus returns for the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The BBC's first error of the night was to predict that Republican returns would appear an hour before the Democrats.In fact the Dems here got off to a brisk start.The first result gave John Edwards 50% and Obama and Clinton 16.67% each.For the Republicans here. Nothing as I write.Latest figure:Democrats:Senator

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-30067953805837070032007-12-12T20:25:00.000Z2007-12-12T20:30:55.452Z

I've been working at a desk with Blogger-hostile equipment, and I've been concentrating on the day job. Because of spam, I try not to leave my e-mail address lying around on-line. But anyone interested in a business contact should be on Linked In, and anyone wishing to socialise should be on Facebook.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-21027489623694624422007-05-11T12:02:00.000Z2007-05-11T12:06:16.168Z

Tonight I'm speaking at the Putney Debates on the recent presidential election in France. Details from the Libertarian Alliance. I hope to post comments over the week end.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-43334707092678487272007-01-25T16:43:00.000Z2007-01-25T16:57:30.184Z

Last week I hit 10,000 hits on Antoine Clarke's Election Watch.It's a milestone. And I'm happy about it. I once set up a newspaper with a circulation of less than 100, so a trickle of readers does not bother me.I realize that the key to better visibility is more writing, more often. It took from 13 July 2004 to 17 January 2007 to hit the 10k mark (visitor #6,969). We shall see how long it takes

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-36452809970187053642007-01-25T16:20:00.000Z2007-01-25T16:31:11.976Z

From MyD, Matt Stoller writes:Hillary Clinton's strategy is to scoop up money from the elites, keepenough women to hold off from losing badly in Iowa and New Hampshire, and rackup huge margins in the black vote in the later states.This doesn't read like a fan...Hillary Clinton's strategy is to scoop up money from the elites, keep enough women to hold off from losing badly in Iowa and New

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1169042124856427712007-01-17T13:48:00.000Z2007-01-17T13:55:24.866Z

OK. Instapundit or Daily Kos this ain't. But I can remember hoping to reach the 25th issue of my 100 circulation TANSTAAFL Times.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1168697313415105052007-01-13T14:08:00.000Z2007-01-13T18:01:53.963Z

Two U.S. presidential candidates for 2008 have started advertising on blogs.One of them, John Edwards, was the 2004 Democratic Party Vice-Presidential candidate. He is using a video broadcast hosted on YouTube to launch his campaign for his Party's presidential nomination. The other, Mitt Romney, is a medium chance to be the Republican Party's candidate for President. His adverts point blog

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1168201934273970282007-01-07T20:32:00.000Z2007-01-09T13:25:04.116Z

No comment.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1166175948221715782006-12-15T09:25:00.000Z2006-12-21T19:32:45.916Z

...except they're not!The final counts have been made but there are still two loose threads.In the House of Representatives, the 23rd congressional district of Texas has been won by Democrat and former Representative Ciro D. Rodriguez, defeating Congressman Henry Bonilla (Republican) with 54.32% to 45.68% of the vote.This means the House of Representatives final score would be 233 Democrats to

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162982250444397282006-11-08T10:29:00.000Z2006-11-08T10:37:30.460Z

I think most people would agree, but Mark Steyn argues that President Bush blew it in 2001:"11.40pmHow you read this election depends on which way you pick up the book. If you look at it as a conventional sixth year race, the Democrats underperformed, as noted below. If you look at it as a contest between the September 11th party and the September 10th party, the Democrats did distressingly well.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162958564049839862006-11-08T09:55:00.000Z2006-11-08T10:38:16.616Z

With Democrats needing to find three wins from Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Montana and Tennessee it looks like the Republicans have held the Senate, albeit by a thread.The forecasts for the House of Representatives look better for the Democrats but at this time they are just that: forecasts. Good results for them in the gubernatorial elections.No news yet on the the South Dakota abortion

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162955417912862672006-11-08T03:01:00.000Z2006-11-08T03:10:17.913Z

Tradesports is offering trades at effectively 16 to 1 against the Republicans hold in the House of Representatives, but odds on to hold the Senate.To my U.S. readers, it may be illegal for you to use Tradesports. I use it to measure punters' estimates of future events, as they are generally more accurate than the so-called experts.N.B. I have never placed a contract on the site and they haven't

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162950899320731242006-11-08T01:53:00.000Z2006-11-08T01:54:59.320Z

Fox News says Rick Santorum has lost Pennsylvania (no surprise, he was behind all year). However, Menendez holding New Jersey is good for Democrats.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162950662321463852006-11-08T01:42:00.000Z2006-11-08T01:51:02.336Z

...though he may yet contribute to losing the House of Representatives by discouraging some loyal supporters elsewhere. Vote counting in Florida's 16th congressional district is showing a lead for Foley's replacement.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162949557287702882006-11-08T01:20:00.000Z2006-11-08T01:33:14.003Z

Perhaps one of the most significant developments has been the implosion of Virginia Senator George Allen's ambitions to become the next Republican candidate for President.As I write, he may actually have lost his senate seat (where George Bush did "badly" to win by 9% in 2006). Even if Senator Allen is re-elected narrowly, his credibility as a presidential choice is shot to pieces. Double

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162948539784514062006-11-08T01:11:00.000Z2006-11-08T01:15:39.796Z

Either the angry masses come out to "throw out the bums," so Democrat leads are underestimated.Or the silent majority comes out and turns the pollsters into a laughing stock, again.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162946182719292242006-11-08T00:32:00.000Z2006-11-08T00:36:53.603Z

Early report here.No indication of local swing, but I expect that there will be a lot of local variation. I don't expect to read too much if any Republicans or Democrats win by bigger or smaller margins, unless they are 2008 presidential hopefuls (George Allen [Republican] in Virginia for example).

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1162945200835584702006-11-07T23:55:00.000Z2006-11-08T00:22:02.236Z

Tonight I risk my shirt: here's a round up of predictions:Pro-Democrat sitesPolitics1 says Governor: Dems 30, Reps 20; Senate: D 51, R 49; House of Representatives: D 235, R 200.Electoral Vote says: Senate: Dems 51, Reps 49; House: D 239, R 195 and 1 tie.ThinkProgress: uses CNN early poll data to predict exactly six Senate gains and no losses for the Democrats.Chris Bowers at MyDD says: Senate:

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1161206359138657042006-10-18T21:19:00.000Z2006-10-18T21:19:19.506Z

Kos writes about the U.S. Republican get out the vote effort (GOTV), which he says, will actually determine the outcome of the elections in two weeks.The Congressman Foley affair is precisely the sort of scandal that can cause a small number, but spread across all the narrow contests, of Republican voters to just sit at home and not bother to vote. The only chance this had of turning into an

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1157439263245235222006-09-05T06:54:00.000Z2006-09-07T07:29:17.396Z

Kristine Lowe offers a curious tale of 11:30pm press conferences to deflect attention from the opposition.I can honestly say this is a new one to me.The story of a hacker caught interfering in the intranet of the governing party is noteworthy however. This is surely, at face value, a Watergate-style violation.Nice way to kick off Election Watch's coverage of Sweden's election campaign!Updates

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1157201826915564552006-09-02T12:57:00.000Z2006-09-02T12:57:06.916Z

A good idea!Boing Boing: Wikipedia founder calls for political campaign wikis

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1157201716693025722006-09-02T12:55:00.000Z2006-09-02T12:55:16.700Z

I should have covered this earlier:MyDD :: Movement to Render Electoral College Obsolete Gains

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7618660.post-1157199198381427232006-09-02T12:13:00.000Z2006-09-02T12:13:18.386Z

From the The Rothenberg Political Report, comes an assessment of the chances of U.S. Republicans winning some seats while the Democrats make inroads.In summary, although pundits predict that Democrats will win enough seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to take control back for the first time since 1994 (I don't), they fail to take into account any Republican chances of local victories.

Antoine Clarkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11424022415497934416noreply@blogger.com0