If the Republicans had a figure with the ability to communicate that Ronald Reagan had, I would suggest that a 1980 catastrophe was awaiting the Democrats in 2012. My gut feeling is that President Obama may decide not to run for a second term. His place in history is assured, he is likely to face an obstructive Congress, like Mikhail Gorbachev, he is likely to be considerably more popular abroad than at home and Pres Obama does not strike me as caring that much about the job. But I stress that this is my gut feeling at the moment, so it has little (more like no) predictive value.
What I was more interested in were the matchups between President Obama and for Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, which show a 51%-42% split, with other figures suggesting that, like Hillary Clinton, Mrs Palin could be better at mobilizing opponents than supporters. This far ahead of November 2012, 42% is not a bad place to be, but the former Alaska Governor will do well to retain her position as a credible candidate after three years without holding any political office.
The more significant figures in my mind were those concerning media and God.
Rupert Murdoch's niche market: 42% of Americans
Page 8 of the survey carries the following question:
Now, thinking one more time about the elections this fall. I am going to read you several types of media that people use to get news and information. For each one, please tell me if yes, you do use this source or no, you do not use this source to get news about the elections this fall. Here is first one…
The results are only surprising for people who refuse to accept the decline of the mainstream media.
Cable TV news channels like CNN, FOX News, or MSNBC or their websites: Yes 81%, No 19%.
National broadcast TV news channels like ABC, NBC, or CBS or their websites: Yes 71%, No 29%
Local TV news or their websites: Yes 73%, No 26%, Don't Know or No Response 1%
Newspapers or newspaper websites: Yes 72%, No 28%
Other websites or blogs: Yes 39%, No 61%
Conversations with friends and family: Yes 79%, No 21%
Radio programming: Yes 58%, No 41%
Political advertisements: Yes 37%, No 62%, Don't Know or No Response 1%
It gets more interesting...
When those people who said cable (more than four out of every five responses) were asked which channel, the breakdown was as follows:
Mainly CNN.........................................................30%
Mainly Fox News.................................................42%
Mainly MSNBC....................................................12%
Other cable news channel/website.........................9%
UNSURE/REFUSED (DNR)................................7%
That means that Democrat-leaning media and Republican-biased are evenly matched at 42% each. And Rupert Murdoch has no competition for the conservative audience. Some niche market you got there!
For those sad people who obsess about the effect of political commentary, the following figures may be distressing. For the rest of us, they put things in some perspective:
John Stewart and Sean Hannity are about as influential as each other: positive influence on political debate 34% vs 35%, negative 22% vs 25%, "never heard of" 34% for both (heheheh!).
Glenn Beck and Bill O'Reilly clearly earn their pay: positive/negative are 38%/32% and 49%/32% with only 12% not knowing who the O'Reilly Factor host is, compared with 23% for Mr Beck.
I'd fire Rachel Maddow and Ed Schultz if I knew who they were: 55% and 70% of respondents haven't a clue who the MSNBC commentators are, 18%/18% or 11%/11% positive/negative ratings would not get me excited to buy an advertising slot.
Keith Olberman seems to be someone the conservatives should be writing in to keep on air: the liberal pundit scores a negative -2 rating and is unknown by 42% of Americans, or it might be worse!
My take on this is that the Fox News operation is effective and its leading commentators do a good job. Only John Stewart of the liberals (and a decent comedian) seems to carry the American left.
More people go to church at least once a week than don't believe in God
On God, I was puzzled by the survey's lack of an option to respond "a mosque" when people were asked, "What is the church you or your family attends most often?" given that "Jewish" and "synagogue" were listed. I assume that the 3% "other" includes the Islamic community. It seems unnecessarily restrictive to have used the term "church" without offering "place of worship," but I don't know the context so I'll leave it at that.
The 20% who said "None" and 5% who did not respond is incredibly low for European eyes.
Looking at the detail is even more astonishing. How often do you attend church/synagogue etc?
More than once a week.........................................16%
Once a week.........................................................39%
Several times a month...........................................14%
Once a month.........................................................6%
Several times a year..............................................14%
Only on holidays....................................................8%
NEVER/DON'T ATTEND....................................3%
UNSURE/REFUSED............................................1%
Those figures are badly presented so let me show you:
| How often attend place of worship | (%) |
| Never, don't attend or unsure/refused to answer | 4% |
| At least once a month | 75% |
| At least once a week | 55% |
| More than once a week | 16% |
It is FOUR TIMES more likely that a person will go to church more than once a week than that they never go, among the 75% of adults who consider themselves as belonging to a religion. I would not be surprised if there are majority-Moslem countries where such devotion would be considered high.
Let me be clear, I don't equate religion with opposing liberalism/social democracy. My point is that this is not a society where one can take European assumptions about religion's part in democratic debate and transport them to the U.S.A. without adjustment.
Should the government take over healthcare is a different issue when "is my money being used to pay for abortions?" is not simply a question of cost. If there is a plurality of private insurers, some can do business by boasting of how many abortions they provide, while others try (if allowed by law) to refuse them. This is not an issue that most people paying for the National Health Service in the U.K, concern themselves about.
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