"Mano a mano" in Washington State

Some information about hand recounts in Washington State for the Governor's race that never seems to end.

Because the Republican majority is 42, if I've understood the regulations correctly, there are basically three options.

1) There is a recount by hand of the entire state, on the basis that the majority is less than 150 votes or 0.25 per cent.

2) The Democrat candidate concedes.

3) The two leading candidates have the option of agreeing a different method (for example selected counties only). If a recount in some counties leads to the result being overturned (i.e. the Democrat candidate takes the lead), then the whole state has to be recounted by hand.

At present the Washington Secretary of State's office (responsible for certifying election returns) believes that a definite result can be announced on December 2.

Another brief aside: Ukraine

I don't have any special knowledge about Ukraine, except to speculate that the cleavage between Yushenko and Yanukovych strongholds looks very much like the Western parts that were once part of Poland are voting for the opposition and the Eastern parts that were under Tsarist rule for longer are more pro-Moscow.

However, from Instapundit I found this link to some election statistics, including turnout changes between the two rounds of voting. This is apparently one of the pieces of evidence supporting claims of ballot-rigging.

The turnout rose sometimes considerably on November 21, in regions where Viktor Yanukovych the pro-Moscow candidate gained massive support. In areas supporting the opposition candidate Viktor Yushenko, turnout practically stayed unchanged from the first round of voting on October 31.

A brief aside: Palestinian Authority elections

The Palestinian Authority election for a new President to replace Yasser Arafat is due to take place on January 9 2005. Marwan Barghouti, described as a leader of the younger Fatah activists has announced his intention to challenge Mahmoud Abbas.

I am unfamiliar with the technical side of these elections so I have been doing some background reading.

For information from official Palestinian sources about the election process follow this link:

Various reports from:
Msnbc, Washington Times, Al Jazeera, and the Jerusalem Post.

For critical views about the likelyhood of elections taking place on schedule and fairly, as well as difficulties registering voters:
Newsday
Little Green Footballs
Global Security
The Australian

It might all be over by Christmas

More on the Washington recount, including what could happen next here.

"...forty two..."

The results are in for the first recount in Washington state. Dino Rossi has seen his lead cut to just 42 votes after King County supplied 593 extra votes to his Democratic opponent.

The Democrats may request a hand count, which would probably take a couple of weeks. Because the result is supposed to be certified by today, this may require lawyers and a lot of money. Over at the Daily KOS, there seems to be something of a consensus that the problem was their candidate, Christine Gregoire.

The changes in the three counties not reporting back by yesterday were:

King: Dem +593, Rep +348, Lib +30
Kitsap: Dem +15, Rep -19, Lib -7
Whitman: Dem -9, Rep -4, Lib -1
Total for the three counties: Democrat gain 599, Republican gain 325, Libertarian gain 22 (Republican majority in the 35 other counties was 316 votes).

Waiting for King

With three counties yet to declare recount totals, Dino Rossi the Republican candidate for Governor in the state of Washington has seen his lead increase from 261 to 316. However King County accounted for over half a million Democrat votes in the first count, so it's too early for the GOP to start celebrating. It would take an abnormally high number of extra votes in King County to be attributed to Christine Gregoire, the Democrat candidate, for the result to be overturned at this stage. Assuming no abnormal behaviour in King County, there should be no more than 700 extra votes allocated. The Democrats would need about 80% of these votes to win. This would be extraordinary: in no other county where more than 20 votes have been added, have the extra votes broken down more than 3 to 1 in either main candidate's favour.

The table below shows the latest available update on the recount.

County	Change from first count
Adams	Dem +12	Rep +27	Lib +2
Asotin	Dem +1	Rep -1	Lib n/c
Benton	Dem +1	Rep +2	Lib -1
Chelan	Dem +3	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Clallam	Dem +1	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Clark	Dem +3	Rep +7	Lib n/c
Columbia	Dem -1	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Cowlitz	Dem -29	Rep -40	Lib n/c
Douglas	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib +1
Ferry	Dem +3	Rep +2	Lib n/c
Franklin	Dem -1	Rep +1	Lib +1
Garfield	Dem +1	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Grant	Dem +26	Rep +44	Lib +1
Grays Harbor	Dem +6	Rep +5	Lib n/c
Island	Dem n/c	Rep +5	Lib n/c
Jefferson	Dem +1	Rep -4	Lib +1
King
Kitsap
Kittitas	Dem +19	Rep +25	Lib +2
Klickitat	Dem n/c	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Lewis	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib n/c
Mason	Dem +1	Rep +2	Lib +1
Okanogan	Dem +1	Rep -1	Lib n/c
Pacific	Dem +1	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Pend Oreille	Dem +6	Rep +2	Lib n/c
Pierce	Dem +242	Rep +261	Lib +11
San Juan	Dem n/c	Rep -1	Lib +1
Skagit	Dem +71	Rep +89	Lib +7
Skamania	Dem n/c	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Snohomish	Dem +131	Rep +130	Lib +10
Spokane	Dem +121	Rep +134	Lib +6
Stevens	Dem n/c	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Thurston	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib n/c
Wahkiakum	Dem n/c	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Walla Walla	Dem +59	Rep +37	Lib +5
Whatcom	Dem +3	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Whitman
Yakima	Dem n/c	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Total	Democrat +690	Republican +745	Libertarian +48

Updates available on this page.

E&OE (2)

Yesterday's posting had a poor piece of layout: about 30 lines of blank text. The problem is now fixed and I now know how to avoid this in future.

Still Sleepless in Seattle...

With just over a quarter of the votes recounted, the Washington State recount for the gubernatorial election is showing the Republican lead as effectively increasing by 29 votes. If the other counties show the same broad levels of discrepencies from the original count but we assume they all go the Democrats' way, we cannot expect the Republican lead to be cut by more than between 150 and 200 votes in the remaining counties. Anything more would involve a major surprise.

With a 261 vote provisional lead to overturn, the intial result looks set to stand. A Republican win would give that Party 29 Governors to the Democrats' 21, a net gain of one for the GOP.

The table below shows the latest available update on the recount.

County	Change from first count
Adams	Dem +12	Rep +27	Lib +2
Asotin
Benton	Dem +1	Rep +2	Lib -1
Chelan	Dem +3	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Clallam	Dem +1	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Clark	Dem +3	Rep +7	Lib n/c
Columbia	Dem -1	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Cowlitz
Douglas	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib +1
Ferry	Dem +3	Rep +2	Lib n/c
Franklin
Garfield	Dem +1	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Grant
Grays Harbour
Island	Dem n/c	Rep +5	Lib n/c
Jefferson	Dem +1	Rep -4	Lib +1
King
Kitsap
Kittitas	Dem +19	Rep +25	Lib +2
Klickitat	Dem n/c	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Lewis	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib n/c
Mason	Dem +1	Rep +2	Lib +1
Okanogan	Dem +1	Rep -1	Lib n/c
Pacific	Dem +1	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Pend Oreille	Dem +6	Rep +2	Lib n/c
Pierce
San Juan	Dem n/c	Rep -1	Lib +1
Skagit
Skamania
Snohomish
Spokane
Stevens	Dem n/c	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Thurston	Dem +2	Rep +4	Lib n/c
Wahkiakum	Dem n/c	Rep +1	Lib n/c
Walla Walla
Whatcom
Whitman
Yakima	Dem n/c	Rep n/c	Lib n/c
Total	Democrat +60	Republican +89	Libertarian +7

[figures calculated by me based on these sources: original score and recount]

Errors and omissions excepted (part 1)

From time to time I take a time-out to check this blog for errors and omissions.

1) I have tidied up the spelling and the odd typographical error.
2) I have corrected a misunderstanding: I was under the impression that in 1916, Woodrow Wilson had failed to win the State of Missouri in his re-election campaign. This would have made him the only Democrat to ever win a presidential election against the Republican Party without holding Missouri.
3) I have deleted one posting (dated July 23 2004) in which I corrected another commentator (wrongly) for their mistake in reporting Missouri.

If any reader spots errors, omissions etc please let me know.

Recount in Washington State

The painful process of recounting over 2.8 million votes for the Governorship of the State of Washington begins.

In Klickitat, the only county to report back so far, Republican Dino Rossi has increased his vote by one, the other two candidates' scores remain unchanged.

The orginal total was:
Dino Rossi (Republican): 1,371,414 (48.8759%)
Christine Gregoire (Democrat): 1,371,153 (48.8666%)
Ruth Bennett (Libertarian): 63,346 (2.2576%)
Total votes: 2,805,913
Republican majority: 261 (0.0093%)

For British readers a 0.0093% majority would be equivalent to a parliamentary majority of about 4 votes.