Pretty good post on Count Every Vote.
Just to make clear, I don't buy the 2004 "Ohio vote was stolen" line, at least in the sense that I doubt if the Republicans did anything worse than the Democrats did. As for the canard of exit polls: the early returns in 2004 were wrong because they were unrepresentative. Period. Exit polls always will have discrepancies with the counted result because 1) older conservatives generally don't brag about it to pollsters, 2) whoever thinks they're the minority may feel intimidated.
My only quibble with paper voting is the ridiculous "push a pencil through the perforation" system that gave use "hanging chads", "dimple chads" "pregnant chads" and months of wrangling in 2000.
If it's reasonable to expect an illiterate person to sign with an "X", I can't see why putting an "X" in a box won't do on a ballot paper. Many countries put party logos on the ballot paper, which should be enough for someone who can't read.
The only exceptions I can think of are blind people and those who can't hold a pencil. Worst case scenario there is to have proxy voting, but I'm sure there are viable alternatives.
12/05/2005
How to register to vote in Canada
Useful information here on how the Canadian elections authority puts together the final list of electors, and how latecomers should register.
Any lessons for certain parts of the U.S. we choose not to mention?
Any lessons for certain parts of the U.S. we choose not to mention?
What those Canadian MPs really did
For all undecided Canadian voters there's a useful web resource: the "How'd they vote?" site.
It's a pretty easy to use tool for anyone interested in following Canadian parliamentary politics. I'd love to see one for the U.S. Supreme Court!
[Hat-tip M.D. Benoit on her Life's Weirder than Fiction blog.]
It's a pretty easy to use tool for anyone interested in following Canadian parliamentary politics. I'd love to see one for the U.S. Supreme Court!
[Hat-tip M.D. Benoit on her Life's Weirder than Fiction blog.]
Palestinian Authority election: a multiple choice test
The Palestinian Authority election will be a multiple test. First there is the logistical problem of running the election. That could turn out to be the least of President Mahmoud Abbas's problems.
According to Israel National News:
[Hat-tip to discarded lies]
The Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections will no doubt influence the Israeli elections two months later. Widespread support for PFLP candidates will do nothing to create a climate of trust with Israeli voters. This is exactly the sort of banana-skin that Ariel Sharon's new party could do with avoiding.
N.B. The Palestinian Authority's website still doesn't carry any news about the legislative elections (which I find worrying). There is however a communiqué commending Javier Solano's endorsement of:
According to Israel National News:
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a veteran component of the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization), will be running in January’s Palestinian Authority election under the banner, “Destroy the Zionist Enterprise.”
At the head of the PFLP’s list for the PA parliament is Ahmed Sa’adat, the organization’s chairman, who ordered the assassination of Israeli minister Rehavam Ze’evi in October 2003. Another prominent figure on the list is Mohammed Alrimawi, who led the hit men who shot Ze’evi.
Sa’adat and Alrimawi are supposed to be serving time in a Jericho prison for that assassination. The PA agreed to imprison the two men under pressure from the United States and Great Britain.
[Hat-tip to discarded lies]
The Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections will no doubt influence the Israeli elections two months later. Widespread support for PFLP candidates will do nothing to create a climate of trust with Israeli voters. This is exactly the sort of banana-skin that Ariel Sharon's new party could do with avoiding.
N.B. The Palestinian Authority's website still doesn't carry any news about the legislative elections (which I find worrying). There is however a communiqué commending Javier Solano's endorsement of:
the Palestinian people's right to end Israeli military occupation "peacefully".
Sharon's new party has momentum
Interesting analysis of the Israeli election by Emanuele Ottolenghi over at Oxblog.
The signing up by Ariel Sharon of Shimon Peres is a coup, and its timing suggests that a well-focussed campaign strategy is revving up nicely. Kadima has a nicely defined political niche (right of centre between Likud and Labour), the two best known living Israeli politicians, and yet can present itself as a "kick them out!" alternative.
However, the one worry for the new party is the length of time until polling day: March 28 2006. A lot can go wrong between now and then and a new party doesn't have the tribal bedrock vote (yet!) to back the party through thick and thin.
Over to Likud...
The signing up by Ariel Sharon of Shimon Peres is a coup, and its timing suggests that a well-focussed campaign strategy is revving up nicely. Kadima has a nicely defined political niche (right of centre between Likud and Labour), the two best known living Israeli politicians, and yet can present itself as a "kick them out!" alternative.
However, the one worry for the new party is the length of time until polling day: March 28 2006. A lot can go wrong between now and then and a new party doesn't have the tribal bedrock vote (yet!) to back the party through thick and thin.
Over to Likud...
Kazakh Presidential election results show lack of choice
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (O.C.S.E.) has welcomed improvements in the organisation of elections in Kazakhstan, which has resulted in the landslide re-election of President Nursultan Nazarbaev with over 90% of votes cast.
The OCSE press statement goes on to criticise the lack of pluralism in the Central Asian Republic:
The B.B.C. reported the story negatively here.
The results were broadly expected, as illustrated by this poll published on Friday by Intermedia.
The problems of taking the polling and election figures at face value are the usual suspicion of electronic voting systems and the degree to which opinion poll respondents consider themselves free to express dissident views. Whatever reservations one may have on this issue, this was no Ukrainian fraud.
The OCSE press statement goes on to criticise the lack of pluralism in the Central Asian Republic:
OSCE Chairman-in-Office Dimitrij Rupel said the findings pointed to a continued need to open up the political life in Kazakhstan, in order to allow meaningful competition among candidates and political parties.
The Slovenian Foreign Minister, who is hosting the OSCE Ministerial Council in Ljubljana, said that the international observers had also acknowledged positive developments where they occurred.
"Sustained efforts are necessary, however, to bring about a situation where OSCE commitments on democratic elections and accountable governance are truly met" he added.
The B.B.C. reported the story negatively here.
Main opposition candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, who secured just 6.64% of the vote according to official results, alleged there had been "multiple violations".
"We will take all legal measures to protest the official results of the voting and will press for this election to be declared invalid," Mr Tuyakbai said on Monday.
"The authoritarian regime of Nazarbayev is taking a totalitarian turn," he said.
The results were broadly expected, as illustrated by this poll published on Friday by Intermedia.
The problems of taking the polling and election figures at face value are the usual suspicion of electronic voting systems and the degree to which opinion poll respondents consider themselves free to express dissident views. Whatever reservations one may have on this issue, this was no Ukrainian fraud.
12/02/2005
Canadian Election Vote Predictor
Hill and Knowlton have set up an election predictor for the Canadian election on 23 January 2006.
[hat tip markrite]
[hat tip markrite]
12/01/2005
Democrats toying with primary timetable
Democratic party activists are pushing to change the order of the US primaries (the demographics of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary don't represent the party's base).
However, as this posting on MyDD shows, the process is not straightforward. For starters the State of New Hampshire has a law that requires it to hold the first full primary of election year.
For what it's worth, I think the parties should decide the order they want to hold their primaries. But there is a danger that the U.S. Democratic Party is "fighting the last war" - again. Howard Dean's failure in 2004 to compete in either Iowa or New Hampshire killed his chances of winning the Democratic nomination. In event, I can see no basis for the belief that he would have got more votes than Senator John Kerry did. And if anything, a Howard Dean candidacy would have guaranteed that all the Republicans who came out to back President George W. Bush's re-election, were prepared to stand in queues for hours to vote.
However, as this posting on MyDD shows, the process is not straightforward. For starters the State of New Hampshire has a law that requires it to hold the first full primary of election year.
For what it's worth, I think the parties should decide the order they want to hold their primaries. But there is a danger that the U.S. Democratic Party is "fighting the last war" - again. Howard Dean's failure in 2004 to compete in either Iowa or New Hampshire killed his chances of winning the Democratic nomination. In event, I can see no basis for the belief that he would have got more votes than Senator John Kerry did. And if anything, a Howard Dean candidacy would have guaranteed that all the Republicans who came out to back President George W. Bush's re-election, were prepared to stand in queues for hours to vote.
Egyptian elections draw to a messy close
Opposition parties in Egypt are complaining about excessive police intimidation today at polling stations, according to a Reuters report.
Another round of voting is expected next Wednesday (7 December) in those seats where no candidate has secured a majority.
Update: Report of fatal shooting here.
Another round of voting is expected next Wednesday (7 December) in those seats where no candidate has secured a majority.
Update: Report of fatal shooting here.
Canada poll suggests a tight race
(via Instapundit)
Ed Morrisey has analysis of AP-Ipsos poll which he compares to a private Robbins Research poll.
It begins to look like an interesting contest.
Ed Morrisey has analysis of AP-Ipsos poll which he compares to a private Robbins Research poll.
Both parties [Liberal and Conservative] get 31% of the national vote, and NDP picks up 18%. BQ gets 14%, all of it from Quebec.
However, the details have to disturb Liberals who hope to return to power in the next Commons. Their support base in Ontario appears to have seriously eroded. Earlier polls show that the Liberals once enjoyed a double-digit lead in their power base. Now that lead has collapsed into a statistical tie with the Conservatives, 37%-35%. The NDP appears to have taken advantage of Liberal slippage, moving up to 21% support in the province. The Tories now outstrip the Liberals in British Columbia, where the Liberals had made inroads in provincial voting last March; the Tories have a 34%-28% advantage on the West Coast province. Liberals only have an outright plurality in the Maritimes; they lead the Tories 24-7 in Quebec but get trounced by Conservative partner Bloc Quebecois, 58-24, showing that the Liberals can expect to lose seats in the region most touched by Adscam.
It begins to look like an interesting contest.
Chavez wins
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Most of Venezuela's main opposition parties are boycotting legislative elections on Sunday that could allow President Hugo Chavez to consolidate his self-proclaimed socialist revolution.
Read the whole story here.
Round up of Canadian election news
A slip-up by Conservative leader Stephen Harper.
Unforeseen loophole? Heh!
The agonies of democratic choice, by a Canadian blogger.
Finally, Mark Steyn has a competition for election watchers.
Unforeseen loophole? Heh!
But it appears that the major parties (especially the Liberals, who benefit from an abundance of support from corporations and wealthy individual donors Â) stand to gain the most from the unforseen[sic] wrinkle in the elections act.
Andrew Mills, The Toronto Star
The agonies of democratic choice, by a Canadian blogger.
Finally, Mark Steyn has a competition for election watchers.
Canadian election set for January 23
Reported by Fox News:
Tradesports has the Liberals firm favourites, but slipping. At the moment, details of the corruption scandal that has brought down the government are largely unreported in Canada, thanks to a gagging order issued by a judge. With seven weeks for the more lurid details to circulate the blogs and spread by word of mouth, I'd say the Liberals' strategy will backfire.
The election will be held for all 308 seats in the lower House of Commons. The seats in the upper Senate are appointed.
On Monday, the Conservative Party teamed up with the New Democratic and Bloc Quebecois parties to bring down the government, claiming Martin's ruling Liberal Party had lost its moral authority. Recent polls have given the Liberals a slight lead over the Conservatives, with the New Democrats in third place.
The same surveys suggest the Bloc Quebecois would sweep the French-speaking province of Quebec, making a majority government unlikely no matter which party wins the most seats.
Tradesports has the Liberals firm favourites, but slipping. At the moment, details of the corruption scandal that has brought down the government are largely unreported in Canada, thanks to a gagging order issued by a judge. With seven weeks for the more lurid details to circulate the blogs and spread by word of mouth, I'd say the Liberals' strategy will backfire.
11/30/2005
The real chance for Democrats in 2006
The RealClear Politics Blog has the lowdown on the approval ratings of U.S. Governors (SurveyUSA did the polling).
If the figures quoted don't shift much in the next few months, we could be looking at a bloodbath for the Republicans in the gubernatorial elections.
California, New York, Ohio and Texas are the biggest serious opportunities for Democrats. With the highly popular Florida Governor Jeb Bush (Republican) standing down due to term-limit constraints, the Democrats will not get a better chance to sweep the biggest states for years.
All is not gloom for the GOP. Six Democrats due for re-election as Governors next year are currently polling less than 50%. One other (in Iowa) has chosen not to seek re-election. Most are in states that were narrow contests in the 2004 presidential election.
If the figures quoted don't shift much in the next few months, we could be looking at a bloodbath for the Republicans in the gubernatorial elections.
California, New York, Ohio and Texas are the biggest serious opportunities for Democrats. With the highly popular Florida Governor Jeb Bush (Republican) standing down due to term-limit constraints, the Democrats will not get a better chance to sweep the biggest states for years.
All is not gloom for the GOP. Six Democrats due for re-election as Governors next year are currently polling less than 50%. One other (in Iowa) has chosen not to seek re-election. Most are in states that were narrow contests in the 2004 presidential election.
California opportunity for Democrats
Next Tuesday (December 6th) sees the second round of a special election (by-election) in the 48th congressional district of California, following the appointment on June 2nd by President George W. Bush of Christopher Cox to the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board (S.E.C.).
The Republican candidate, John Campbell seems best placed to win, as he scored 45.5% of the first round vote. An American Independent candidate came a distant second with 14.8% and the Democrat Steve Young, managed a pitiful 8.7%. A Libertarian and a Green Party candidate will complete the line-up for the run-off. Unusually for a two-round election, in California the leading candidates of all the parties in the first round go through to the second round, instead of the more commonly used method of taking the top two candidates only.
So far, so good for Republicans. The problem lies in the announcement this week that Republican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham has resigned his seat in Congress following his guilty plea on charges of bribery, tax evasion, mail fraud and wire fraud. He was first elected to Congress in 1990 and was serving his eighth term as a member of the House of Representatives. The Congressional seat in question is the 50th district of California, which covers the County of San Diego.
As these elections returns show from 2004, there is a sizeable Democratic vote in San Diego. If one in five Republican voters stays at home in disgust with "Duke's" ethical performance, the Democrats have a chance of picking up a seat they would otherwise not really compete for. In 2004, the presidential election would tend to have encouraged Republicans to come out and vote, whilst the comparative safety of California as a Democrat stronghold (in presidential elections at least) might have made some of their voters complacent.
Normally, I'd say that a campaign push by the Governor or even the President would be useful. However, apart from helping with fundraisers, neither Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger nor President George W. Bush would necessarily be a positive influence on this election. The recent presidential effort in Virginia for instance did raise a lot of money but failed to change the outcome. In fact, even hosting lavish fundraisers might cause a problem, given the circumstances in which this election has been provoked.
At this time, I still think it would be wildly optimistic for the Democrats to win control of either chamber in Congress. But if they keep holding their Governorships, and pick away at the Republican lead in the House of Representatives, they may hang on until 2008, when the Republicans will be defending large numbers of Senate seats, and they have as yet no clear cut presidential candidate.
[hat tip to The Green Papers]
The Republican candidate, John Campbell seems best placed to win, as he scored 45.5% of the first round vote. An American Independent candidate came a distant second with 14.8% and the Democrat Steve Young, managed a pitiful 8.7%. A Libertarian and a Green Party candidate will complete the line-up for the run-off. Unusually for a two-round election, in California the leading candidates of all the parties in the first round go through to the second round, instead of the more commonly used method of taking the top two candidates only.
So far, so good for Republicans. The problem lies in the announcement this week that Republican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham has resigned his seat in Congress following his guilty plea on charges of bribery, tax evasion, mail fraud and wire fraud. He was first elected to Congress in 1990 and was serving his eighth term as a member of the House of Representatives. The Congressional seat in question is the 50th district of California, which covers the County of San Diego.
As these elections returns show from 2004, there is a sizeable Democratic vote in San Diego. If one in five Republican voters stays at home in disgust with "Duke's" ethical performance, the Democrats have a chance of picking up a seat they would otherwise not really compete for. In 2004, the presidential election would tend to have encouraged Republicans to come out and vote, whilst the comparative safety of California as a Democrat stronghold (in presidential elections at least) might have made some of their voters complacent.
Normally, I'd say that a campaign push by the Governor or even the President would be useful. However, apart from helping with fundraisers, neither Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger nor President George W. Bush would necessarily be a positive influence on this election. The recent presidential effort in Virginia for instance did raise a lot of money but failed to change the outcome. In fact, even hosting lavish fundraisers might cause a problem, given the circumstances in which this election has been provoked.
At this time, I still think it would be wildly optimistic for the Democrats to win control of either chamber in Congress. But if they keep holding their Governorships, and pick away at the Republican lead in the House of Representatives, they may hang on until 2008, when the Republicans will be defending large numbers of Senate seats, and they have as yet no clear cut presidential candidate.
[hat tip to The Green Papers]
11/25/2005
The Guardian says...
2005:Blogged, gets a review in the Guardian's online newspaper edition. Tim Worstall's book reprinted my posting on this site of "Operation Clark County".
It's nice to know that my criticism of a bungled attempt to win the 2004 Presidential election for Democratic Senator John Kerry, does not prejudice Guardian reviewer Jane Perrone.
However, I bet someone at The Grauniad is smiling: 2005:Blogged's index contains a misspelling of my name.
It's nice to know that my criticism of a bungled attempt to win the 2004 Presidential election for Democratic Senator John Kerry, does not prejudice Guardian reviewer Jane Perrone.
However, I bet someone at The Grauniad is smiling: 2005:Blogged's index contains a misspelling of my name.
11/22/2005
Elections around the world in 2006
For democracy nerds everywhere, here's a list of countries where elections are expected to be held at national or State level in 2006. I've included two proposed referenda on the E.U. constitution, although neither are likely at present: the British government has declared the constitution in its present form as not worth putting to the vote and the Czech government won't hold a referendum until everyone else has. There are local elections planned in other countries amnd I'm sure I've missed a few anyway, but then Wikipedia missed out Angola and Israel when I looked.
Angola (possible)
Brazil
Canada
Czech Republic (Referendum EU constitution)
Fiji
Finland
Israel
Italy
Peru
Ukraine (Parliament)
U.K. (Referendum on EU constitution)
U.S.A. (House of Representatives, Senate and gubernatorial elections)
Updates as I get them.
Update
Wikipedia (see above) now shows the Israeli election, but not the Angolan. Also we both missed the Palestinian Authority legislative elections in January 2006.
The fact that the Palestinian Authority's own website doesn't have any details on the election timetable does not help. From the Australian parliament's website comes the following: "President Abbas has announced that it will be held on January 25 2006".
Angola (possible)
Brazil
Canada
Czech Republic (Referendum EU constitution)
Fiji
Finland
Israel
Italy
Peru
Ukraine (Parliament)
U.K. (Referendum on EU constitution)
U.S.A. (House of Representatives, Senate and gubernatorial elections)
Updates as I get them.
Update
Wikipedia (see above) now shows the Israeli election, but not the Angolan. Also we both missed the Palestinian Authority legislative elections in January 2006.
The fact that the Palestinian Authority's own website doesn't have any details on the election timetable does not help. From the Australian parliament's website comes the following: "President Abbas has announced that it will be held on January 25 2006".
11/21/2005
Israeli election date no later than March 28
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has asked President Moshe Katsav to dissolve the Knesset (Israel's unicameral or single-chamber parliament). Mr Sharon has also announced that he is leaving Israel's right-wing Likud party to form a new political movement aimed at the political centre of Israeli politics. Meanwhile, President Katsav has proposed a date of "no later" than March 28 2006 for elections.
The Knesset can vote to set a different date for the election, and my instant gut feeling is that it might not suit either Likud or Labour to go along with a snap election as both parties will have recently changed leaders and both may be wary of giving Mr Sharon the benefit of a short election campaign. (I wouldn't in their shoes, but then I'm not hired by any of the parties to do their campaign strategy, so what do they know!)
The fractious nature of Israel's proportional representation system makes such Mr Sharon's move difficult to predict. Small and often extreme political parties tend to hold disproportionate bargaining power in the formation of a coalition government. Mr Sharon appears to be calculating that he is better off outside Likud and offering to support either of the main two parties (Labour being the left-wing party), in exchange for a moderate position towards the Palestinian Authority.
In America or in the U.K., such a move would be a simple case of political suicide. However, with a proportional representation system, it's in the hands of the party horsetraders... after the next election.
The Knesset can vote to set a different date for the election, and my instant gut feeling is that it might not suit either Likud or Labour to go along with a snap election as both parties will have recently changed leaders and both may be wary of giving Mr Sharon the benefit of a short election campaign. (I wouldn't in their shoes, but then I'm not hired by any of the parties to do their campaign strategy, so what do they know!)
The fractious nature of Israel's proportional representation system makes such Mr Sharon's move difficult to predict. Small and often extreme political parties tend to hold disproportionate bargaining power in the formation of a coalition government. Mr Sharon appears to be calculating that he is better off outside Likud and offering to support either of the main two parties (Labour being the left-wing party), in exchange for a moderate position towards the Palestinian Authority.
In America or in the U.K., such a move would be a simple case of political suicide. However, with a proportional representation system, it's in the hands of the party horsetraders... after the next election.
Angola may hold general election in 2006
The Angolan government has publicly stated in the past 24 hours that it aspires to organising a general election during 2006.
However, the tone of Edeltrudes Costa (the Deputy Minister of Territory Administration) speaking to a press gathering yesterday was more hopeful than confident.
However, the tone of Edeltrudes Costa (the Deputy Minister of Territory Administration) speaking to a press gathering yesterday was more hopeful than confident.
Finland's presidential election January 2006
The first round of voting for the presidential election in Finland is scheduled for 15 January 2006. The date is chosen as being the third Sunday in January.
The system is identical to that used in France and the State of Louisiana in the U.S.A. - if a candidate fails to win a majority of the votes cast, there is a run-off between the top two candidates. The run-off - if required - will take place on 29 January 2006.
The system is identical to that used in France and the State of Louisiana in the U.S.A. - if a candidate fails to win a majority of the votes cast, there is a run-off between the top two candidates. The run-off - if required - will take place on 29 January 2006.
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