Due to five hour time difference, I'm not liveblogging the Massachusetts special election count for the next few hours.
So here are some good places for readers who live in more favourable timezones or who are prepared for an all-nighter:
Fivethirtyeight Especially because it has a live Twitter feed.
If you're a sadist and the Democrats are losing, much wailing and gnashing of the teeth here. ;-)
N.B. Expect Nate Silver, who runs 538 to get inside news from the Democratic camp.
Drudge Report is updating the count on its main page. Seems pretty quick.
RealClearPolitics (conservative) looks to have a neat live blog going. If you're a Democrat and want to see GOP fans cry, this could be a good place to start if your woman wins.
There doesn't seem to be an official results page on the Commonwealth of Massachsetts website yet, but I think it will be on this page or linked to it.
Intrade appears to have crashed, leaving people who wished to make last minute bets potentially in the lurch. If it comes back on tonight, check to see if the contract moves below 70% for Scott Brown or above 30% for Martha Coakley. That would suggest that the Democrats might pull off an incredible escape. We'll see.
UPDATE: Barring something very odd, I'm calling this a Republican gain.
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
11/04/2009
Late forecast for US election night (Updated)
UPDATE: NY 23:
Candidate Party Votes (%)
Bill Owens Democrat 47,826 49.1%
Doug Hoffman Conservative 44,349 45.5
Dede Scozzafava Republican 5,294 5.4
67% reporting
As of time of writing (03:54 GMT), the gap has been narrowing. Scozzafava's votes are thought to mostly be absentee ballots which would have been posted before she withdrew.
UPDATE: Local media calling NJ for Republican candidate Christie.
UPDATE: Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate has conceded in Virginia. President Obama is said by the White House Press Office to not be watching returns tonight.
Governor New Jersey: the courts will decide, absentee ballots could give this to Joe Corzine (ex-Goldman Sachs director), returning the Democrat to a second term.
Governor Virginia: one of the states that does not allow a Governor to stand for re-election. Expect Bob McDonnell to win easily for the Republicans, a gain from Democrats.
California 10th congressional district: expect Democrat hold for John Garamendi (currently the Lieutenant Governor of California).
New York 23rd CD: expect CONSERVATIVE PARTY win for Doug Hoffman (the "Republican" candidate quit over the weekend and endorsed the Democrat, justifying charges she was too close to the Dems). However, this is getting so dirty, I don't expect Democrats to play fair here.
Election nerds will be looking at the changes since last year, when Barack Obama won all four constituencies.
2008 results:
NJ: 57%
VA: 53%
CA 10th CD: 65%
NY 23rd CD: 52%
My forecast is a big swing against the Obama landslide, but to be fair, this is not entirely surprising.
For what it's worth, four years ago I covered the same two gubernatorial elections [and here] in New Jersey and Virginia, when both were won by the Democrats, in what I considered to be an impressive result.
What I got wrong in 2005-2006, was the degree to which the Democrats got themselves organised from a grassroots campaign using blogs such as Daily Kos as well as the idiotic consequences of the McCain-Feingold Act (the main loser being Senator John McCain's presidential ambitions).
Conservatives are likely to be reasonably cheered by these results, but the Republican fiasco in New York and the possible theft of two elections by the Democrats (not the first in recent years at state level) suggest that the Republican party machine and its ruling élite are a shambles.
Candidate Party Votes (%)
Bill Owens Democrat 47,826 49.1%
Doug Hoffman Conservative 44,349 45.5
Dede Scozzafava Republican 5,294 5.4
67% reporting
As of time of writing (03:54 GMT), the gap has been narrowing. Scozzafava's votes are thought to mostly be absentee ballots which would have been posted before she withdrew.
UPDATE: Local media calling NJ for Republican candidate Christie.
UPDATE: Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate has conceded in Virginia. President Obama is said by the White House Press Office to not be watching returns tonight.
Governor New Jersey: the courts will decide, absentee ballots could give this to Joe Corzine (ex-Goldman Sachs director), returning the Democrat to a second term.
Governor Virginia: one of the states that does not allow a Governor to stand for re-election. Expect Bob McDonnell to win easily for the Republicans, a gain from Democrats.
California 10th congressional district: expect Democrat hold for John Garamendi (currently the Lieutenant Governor of California).
New York 23rd CD: expect CONSERVATIVE PARTY win for Doug Hoffman (the "Republican" candidate quit over the weekend and endorsed the Democrat, justifying charges she was too close to the Dems). However, this is getting so dirty, I don't expect Democrats to play fair here.
Election nerds will be looking at the changes since last year, when Barack Obama won all four constituencies.
2008 results:
NJ: 57%
VA: 53%
CA 10th CD: 65%
NY 23rd CD: 52%
My forecast is a big swing against the Obama landslide, but to be fair, this is not entirely surprising.
For what it's worth, four years ago I covered the same two gubernatorial elections [and here] in New Jersey and Virginia, when both were won by the Democrats, in what I considered to be an impressive result.
What I got wrong in 2005-2006, was the degree to which the Democrats got themselves organised from a grassroots campaign using blogs such as Daily Kos as well as the idiotic consequences of the McCain-Feingold Act (the main loser being Senator John McCain's presidential ambitions).
Conservatives are likely to be reasonably cheered by these results, but the Republican fiasco in New York and the possible theft of two elections by the Democrats (not the first in recent years at state level) suggest that the Republican party machine and its ruling élite are a shambles.
6/16/2009
"I think hiatus is the word"
If it's good enough for Salam Pax...
I've been too long away from this blog. For reasons that are not really nice (the company I worked for has gone into liquidation) I now have time in the day with a computer that actually works. Hiatus over, at least for now.
I have completed my statistical compilation of the UK's European Parliamentary election data and will be issuing my analysis over coming days.
Clearly a big issue right now is the contested Iranian election result.
For those unfamiliar with Twitter, this is something I predicted recently: the first use of social media to try and overthrow a government. This is something quite different from using social media to run election campaigns, which I think is now the norm.
I've been too long away from this blog. For reasons that are not really nice (the company I worked for has gone into liquidation) I now have time in the day with a computer that actually works. Hiatus over, at least for now.
I have completed my statistical compilation of the UK's European Parliamentary election data and will be issuing my analysis over coming days.
Clearly a big issue right now is the contested Iranian election result.
For those unfamiliar with Twitter, this is something I predicted recently: the first use of social media to try and overthrow a government. This is something quite different from using social media to run election campaigns, which I think is now the norm.
5/11/2007
Sarko
Tonight I'm speaking at the Putney Debates on the recent presidential election in France. Details from the Libertarian Alliance. I hope to post comments over the week end.
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