I'm having hardware/software problems right now, so the posting is erratic at the moment.
Chris Tame, a long-standing comrade has just died. Here's the Technorati buzz. Here's what I wrote, and here's the Independent obituary.
He opposed Libertarians contesting elections, especially in the British context, taking the view that they would waste time on personality clashes, trim their views in the search for votes, and they wouldn't get many anyhow.
3/24/2006
3/22/2006
World round-up
China: Where does the Vatican find them? After the wonderfully named Cardinal Sin of the Philippines, Cardinal Zen has been sent by Pope Benedict XVI to spread the good word in Hong Kong. The Communist régime is not amused. How un-zen!
Democratic Republic of Congo (ex-Zaire): From the BBC:
Egypt: Condoleeza Rice offers support to Egyptian liberals as a signal to President Mubarrak to allow more opposition.
Italy: Drag-queen candidate Vladimir Luxuria blames "homophobia" for lack of support. The fact that the Times reports her as: "Signora Luxuria is standing for the Refounded Communists." So let me see, she's an apologist for the slaughter of over 100 million people, but she thinks she has an image problem?
Kazakhstan: Currently most attention is focussing on outbreak of avian influenza. However this report of skullduggery and opposition agitation are worth keeping an eye on.
Nigeria: Nigerians seem to like term limits. Seems like an improvement on president for life, or "until the junta decides to change."
Philippines: Speaking of Cardinal Sin (see Cardinal Zen above), another throw-back to exciting times, an attempted coup d'état against president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. More in English here and here. State of emergency declared here. More in French here. State of emergency called off.
Democratic Republic of Congo (ex-Zaire): From the BBC:
The date of the Democratic Republic of Congo's first multi-party elections for more than 40 years has been postponed until June - a two-month delay.
President Joseph Kabila still needs to give his approval to the date.
The electoral commission says the first round of voting will be on 18 June and a second round if needed would take place after the end of June.
Egypt: Condoleeza Rice offers support to Egyptian liberals as a signal to President Mubarrak to allow more opposition.
Italy: Drag-queen candidate Vladimir Luxuria blames "homophobia" for lack of support. The fact that the Times reports her as: "Signora Luxuria is standing for the Refounded Communists." So let me see, she's an apologist for the slaughter of over 100 million people, but she thinks she has an image problem?
Kazakhstan: Currently most attention is focussing on outbreak of avian influenza. However this report of skullduggery and opposition agitation are worth keeping an eye on.
Nigeria: Nigerians seem to like term limits. Seems like an improvement on president for life, or "until the junta decides to change."
Philippines: Speaking of Cardinal Sin (see Cardinal Zen above), another throw-back to exciting times, an attempted coup d'état against president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. More in English here and here. State of emergency declared here. More in French here. State of emergency called off.
3/14/2006
Iain Dale
I've added Iain Dale to my sidebar.
I admit that I did so more because of his involvement in one of my favorite London bookshops Politico's, which has gone digital.
I'm less Tory than Guido Fawkes or Iain, so I guess I'll have to start linking to other political sites in the U.K..
I admit that I did so more because of his involvement in one of my favorite London bookshops Politico's, which has gone digital.
I'm less Tory than Guido Fawkes or Iain, so I guess I'll have to start linking to other political sites in the U.K..
My guess right now: fighting the wrong enemy
My guess as to how things will pan out in the U.S. mid-term election this November, has been expressed almost verbatim by John Hinderaker on Power Line.
The main reason I'm not getting excited by opinion polls right now is that they reflect the popularity of George W. Bush. But someone needs to let the Democrats know that he's not their opponent and never will be again. They've lost every election they're going to lose to him. They will never beat him again in an election. I think the expression is "Move On." The war against Bush is over. They're a bit like old British army generals in 1914, who couldn't quite get used to the notion that they were supposed to be fighting Germans this time, not Russians or the French.
But I wouldn't be shocked if the Republicans didn't lose any seats at all. Republican candidates generally outperform polls, for a variety of reasons, and they have one ace in the hole: they get to run against Democrats. I don't detect any great ground swell in the electorate for a return to Democratic rule.
The main reason I'm not getting excited by opinion polls right now is that they reflect the popularity of George W. Bush. But someone needs to let the Democrats know that he's not their opponent and never will be again. They've lost every election they're going to lose to him. They will never beat him again in an election. I think the expression is "Move On." The war against Bush is over. They're a bit like old British army generals in 1914, who couldn't quite get used to the notion that they were supposed to be fighting Germans this time, not Russians or the French.
"Jews made Hamas win!"
Moderation
A political party that breaks away from Likud and promises to pull out of parts of the West Bank is moderate, right?
Well, not straightforwardly. Ehud Olmert, Kadima's acting leader has apprently authorized the expansion of a settlement in the West Bank, is pushing ahead with the "security wall", and has publicly suggested assassinating Ismael Haniya, the new Palestinian premier. If Ariel Sharon wakes up from his coma, I find the notion of the man who drove tanks across Egypt, was involved in the massacre of Palestinians in the Lebanon in 1982, and who's staged visit to the Temple on the Rock in Jerusalem in was the provocation for the second Intifada as a "moderate" as somewhat bizarre.
So if Mr Levi opposes the security barrier, doesn't agree with assassinating the Palestinian prime minister, agrees to the pull out of some settlements, but thinks the Israeli Labour Party are rotten economic managers, so he votes Likud, that makes him an extremist compared with Mr Olmert?
Moonbats
Here's a fine piece of Middle-East analysis: the Jews made Hamas win to force them to either compromise or cause the collapse of the Palestinian Authority when the U.S.A. and the E.U. stopped subsidizing the P.A..
If Hamas really believed this, they'd disband and stop playing the Jewish stooges.
[Hat tip: Al Jazeera-News]
A political party that breaks away from Likud and promises to pull out of parts of the West Bank is moderate, right?
Well, not straightforwardly. Ehud Olmert, Kadima's acting leader has apprently authorized the expansion of a settlement in the West Bank, is pushing ahead with the "security wall", and has publicly suggested assassinating Ismael Haniya, the new Palestinian premier. If Ariel Sharon wakes up from his coma, I find the notion of the man who drove tanks across Egypt, was involved in the massacre of Palestinians in the Lebanon in 1982, and who's staged visit to the Temple on the Rock in Jerusalem in was the provocation for the second Intifada as a "moderate" as somewhat bizarre.
So if Mr Levi opposes the security barrier, doesn't agree with assassinating the Palestinian prime minister, agrees to the pull out of some settlements, but thinks the Israeli Labour Party are rotten economic managers, so he votes Likud, that makes him an extremist compared with Mr Olmert?
Moonbats
Here's a fine piece of Middle-East analysis: the Jews made Hamas win to force them to either compromise or cause the collapse of the Palestinian Authority when the U.S.A. and the E.U. stopped subsidizing the P.A..
If Hamas really believed this, they'd disband and stop playing the Jewish stooges.
[Hat tip: Al Jazeera-News]
3/13/2006
Sinn Fein campaigning with the Rev Dr Ian Paisley?
I can't work out who runs the site below and the permalinks are poor, so I've cut and pasted a day's postings. If the information is true, the EU referendum campaign in Northern Ireland could be very amusing. Basically only the Ulster Unionists and maybe the SDLP would be in favour. All the parties linked to paramilitaries would be against. Any chance the European Commission could come and canvass door-to-door? :-)
One way of bridging the sectarian divide. And some people can't see any good coming of a referendum!
Check out also the reference to "Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast." Were these the people the IRA offered to shoot?
From Wikipedia:
One way of bridging the sectarian divide. And some people can't see any good coming of a referendum!
March 13th, 2006
Sinn Fein offers ‘British spy bug’ for sale (Reuters)
Reuters - The Irish Republican party Sinn Fein has put up for auction on the Internet what it says is a bugging device used by Britain to spy on one of its offices.
Ex-policeman standing for Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein has selected a former police officer to stand in the next Westminster elections, it emerged tonight.
Sinn Fein in Number 10 discussion
The Sinn Fein leadership attends a meeting in Downing Street amid speculation over an imminent IRA statement.
Sinn Fein member out of election
A Sinn Fein member who was in a Belfast bar on the night father-of-two Robert McCartney was murdered will not contest the local government elections, it emerged tonight.
Posted in Fein | No Comments »
March 13th, 2006
Homes of Sinn Fein members attacked - McLaughlin
The home of Gerry Adams and others belonging to Sinn Fein members in west Belfast were targeted in ball bearing attacks, the party claimed today.
Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein is Ireland’s fastest-growing political movement. Irish Republicans work for lasting peace and justice in Ireland with sustainable social and economic development, genuine democracy, participation, equality and justice for all. … Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams MP, Vice President Pat Doherty MP and party supporters accompany Sinn Féin’s …
Sinn Fein expels top member, says he spied
BELFAST, Northern Ireland — Sinn Fein expelled a prominent party member Friday and accused him of spying for Britain, a strange twist in a scandal that wrecked Northern Ireland’s power-sharing administration.
Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast.
Sinn Fein launches referendum campaign
Sinn Fein launches it capaign against the proposed EU constitution and sets out 13 clear resons why it is not in the interests of the people of Ireland
Check out also the reference to "Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast." Were these the people the IRA offered to shoot?
From Wikipedia:
On March 8 the IRA issued an unprecedented statement saying that they had made an offer to McCartney's family to shoot the members involved in the murder. The family made it clear that they wanted the people concerned prosecuted, not physically harmed.
2/28/2006
Polling numbers
George W Bush's approval ratings are analysed here.
For a light-hearted view of U.S. opinion polls outside election time try texasrainmaker.
For a light-hearted view of U.S. opinion polls outside election time try texasrainmaker.
2/26/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 26 February
I've met Pierre Lellouche (who's name ironically translates as "the shifty Peter" or "cross-eyed Pete"!), I reckon he's probably a good candidate. However, I gather the primaries for the Paris mayoral elections are likely to go to Françoise de Panafieu, a good aristocratic name! She's the former mayor of the arrondissement in Paris I lived in during 2001, the XVIIème. It seemed well run. Maybe she's the one to take on Bertrand Delanöe.
Meanwhile, London's Mayor is in Holocaust denial mode: at least he denies that making Nazi jibes to a Jewish reporter is antisemitic. Ken Livingstone got all those votes for being a nice politically correct anti-establishment type. It turns out he has the same political opinions as Colonel Blimp.
The bit of the puppet show where all sides start hitting the election official. I can think of more countries than Haiti where this story deserves to happen.
No mention of Justice Souter's home being targeted by campaigners (the source is the New York Times), but it's an interesting report nonetheless about the backlash across the U.S.A. about "eminent domain" the practice of nationalizing land under the pretext (not always real) of an overriding public interest, such as building a dam, an airport, or a friend's property development.
Uganda's election was predictable. Voting was on tribal lines.
The official line is that "there was no intimidation or cheating, and anyway the opposition are terrorists who deserve it," (or words to that effect). Apart from this. And this. The problem being that I doubt if either side would have been squeaky clean if they had the upper hand. And who can blame them! You lose the election and you're liable to get killed and tens of thousands of your people could be driven out of the country or massacred. Who wouldn't stuff ballot boxes with those stakes? You'd almost have to have a criminal lack of responsibility for your own people to not make sure of victory by all means available.
Officials results here.
I've said it before:
Syria's stooge in the Lebanon accuses French President Jacques Chirac of trying to cause his overthrow [in French]. If they take out contracts on each other, it's a win-win.
I never realised that Chirac had such support in "the Arab street".
Jonathan Singer on MyDD tries to get the point across to his readers that the U.S. Supreme Court is in danger of becoming an entrenched Conservative institution for the next decade or so. He's right to be worried. The ages of the existing Supreme Court justices are such that the next two most likely to retire are both liberals.
As one bitter American conservative told me recently about the U.S. President: "[George W.] Bush may be a shit on spending and welfare reform, but if he puts three conservatives on the Supreme Court, he'll have done alright."
Well what do you know?
Venezuela's Socialist leader, who tried to take power in a coup d'état before winning elections with physical intimidation, wants to abolish term limits. As Hugo Chavez is already rigging votes, he doesn't need to abolish elections.
Meanwhile, London's Mayor is in Holocaust denial mode: at least he denies that making Nazi jibes to a Jewish reporter is antisemitic. Ken Livingstone got all those votes for being a nice politically correct anti-establishment type. It turns out he has the same political opinions as Colonel Blimp.
The bit of the puppet show where all sides start hitting the election official. I can think of more countries than Haiti where this story deserves to happen.
No mention of Justice Souter's home being targeted by campaigners (the source is the New York Times), but it's an interesting report nonetheless about the backlash across the U.S.A. about "eminent domain" the practice of nationalizing land under the pretext (not always real) of an overriding public interest, such as building a dam, an airport, or a friend's property development.
Uganda's election was predictable. Voting was on tribal lines.
The official line is that "there was no intimidation or cheating, and anyway the opposition are terrorists who deserve it," (or words to that effect). Apart from this. And this. The problem being that I doubt if either side would have been squeaky clean if they had the upper hand. And who can blame them! You lose the election and you're liable to get killed and tens of thousands of your people could be driven out of the country or massacred. Who wouldn't stuff ballot boxes with those stakes? You'd almost have to have a criminal lack of responsibility for your own people to not make sure of victory by all means available.
Officials results here.
I've said it before:
Syria's stooge in the Lebanon accuses French President Jacques Chirac of trying to cause his overthrow [in French]. If they take out contracts on each other, it's a win-win.
I never realised that Chirac had such support in "the Arab street".
Jonathan Singer on MyDD tries to get the point across to his readers that the U.S. Supreme Court is in danger of becoming an entrenched Conservative institution for the next decade or so. He's right to be worried. The ages of the existing Supreme Court justices are such that the next two most likely to retire are both liberals.
As one bitter American conservative told me recently about the U.S. President: "[George W.] Bush may be a shit on spending and welfare reform, but if he puts three conservatives on the Supreme Court, he'll have done alright."
Well what do you know?
Venezuela's Socialist leader, who tried to take power in a coup d'état before winning elections with physical intimidation, wants to abolish term limits. As Hugo Chavez is already rigging votes, he doesn't need to abolish elections.
2/25/2006
A little disruption as Election Watch nears 5k hits
Over the week-end, I'm shifting my news feeds from Newsgator to Bloglines. I've found Newsgator to be on the slow side, and I didn't like the way some of its functions worked. Although I don't yet know about Bloglines' special features, it seems to run a lot faster, and anecdotally it seems to update faster too.
Meanwhile, the hit counter tells me that this blog is nearing the 5,000 hits mark (which isn't exactly going to get the Instapundit or Daily Kos quaking in their boots), but hey, I can't do postings during the daytime becuase I'm in an office that has the world's second oldest running Mac (the oldest is upstairs, being used by one of the city boys, I think he gets mine if I get the sack). I also haven't figure how to do subject sections on this blog. Also Brian Micklethwait is plotting to start a podcasting project and he wants me to do the "talking head" stuff on elections.
This weekend, I shall also be looking to improve the blogroll and I am aware that there are typos and broken links.
Finally, Sunday is weekly round-up day.
Update: Just made the 5,000! (23:16)
Meanwhile, the hit counter tells me that this blog is nearing the 5,000 hits mark (which isn't exactly going to get the Instapundit or Daily Kos quaking in their boots), but hey, I can't do postings during the daytime becuase I'm in an office that has the world's second oldest running Mac (the oldest is upstairs, being used by one of the city boys, I think he gets mine if I get the sack). I also haven't figure how to do subject sections on this blog. Also Brian Micklethwait is plotting to start a podcasting project and he wants me to do the "talking head" stuff on elections.
This weekend, I shall also be looking to improve the blogroll and I am aware that there are typos and broken links.
Finally, Sunday is weekly round-up day.
Update: Just made the 5,000! (23:16)
2/23/2006
The candidate couldn't find 50 voters in his own district
Here's an outrageous example of the amateurish U.S. electoral system in action, from the State of Ohio. Don't expect the Bush haters to jump up and down, because this one involves a grotesque performance by a Democrat candidate's campaign. In fairness, I gather this sort of thing happens to Libertarian and Republican candidates too.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
2/19/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 19 February
You want dirty politics? Try Harvard's board elections! These guys could teach the Borgias a thing or two.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
2/15/2006
Right idea!
How often do I agree with a Democrat's strategic thinking? Well, not any more!
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
Where's that tidal wave?
U.S. Democrats are cheering themselves up with scraps of evidence to support the dream of sweeping to victory in the House of Representatives (more than the Senate) in the coming November mid-term elections.
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
2/12/2006
Local taxes and how people vote
This chart shows the breakdown by U.S. state of the local tax burden. Polipundit makes the point that there is a correlation between low taxes and areas where Geroge W. Bush did well in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004.
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Free markets, rule of law
Democracy without free markets is an economic disaster which leads to increasingly populist and secatarian government, with ever more bureaucrats hired to increase the government's "payroll vote", and ever more subsidies to crony businesses and non-productive voters, to boost the "client vote". Before long we have an unreformable mess, where the democratic process is an obstruction to change, instead of a mechanism for preventing the entrenchment of particular interest groups.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
It also means, dare I say it, that most of our foreign-policy activism that is aimed overtly at promoting "democratic" reform is wasted effort, in the absence of a foundation of judicial and economic reform. One need only look at the absurdist "democratic" rise of Hamas to see that democracy can't really function properly in a corrupt legal and economic system.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
U.S. House of Representatives forecast for November 2006
My DD has the usual "we can win everywhere" forecast. One slight problem with these forecasts: they always miss the local races that one's party loses.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Thailand to hold referendum on new constitution
Thailand's prime minister is facing major protests from middle-class opposition that blames him for corruption and opening up Thailand to foreign influences. Reuters has the low-down here.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Democrats forged Wikipedia entries
Guess what didn't make the front page of the Washington Post and the New York Times?
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
Costa Rica, Libertarians' great hope fades
Ask me six years ago where in the world a Libertarian Party had a chance of victory and I would have unhestitatingly answered "Costa Rica". The Movimiento Libertario's leader Otto Guevara, was hitting the front of presidential election polls, coming in first or second. The ML had won a seat in the Costa Rican Senate and was to win six Deputies in the lower chamber.
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Referendum in Tokelau for independence
Three coral atholls in the Pacific Ocean are holding a referendum over whether to regain independence for the first time since 1889.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
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