Welcome to Antoine Clarke's Election Watch

I've been gathering information and analysis for the November 2004 elections in the U.S. over the past three months. My track record in elections is generally good, especially long-range forecasting. I have "called" elections (mostly correctly) in the U.K., France, and the U.S. for the past 17 years.

I shall be uploading some of my material over the coming week and comment on new developments as I go along.

Part of my service will be to publish a campaign status: what the current outcome would be, given what predictable events are between now and election day. At this tentative stage, I put the presidency as marginally Bush, the Senate a Republican hold with an increased majority, the House of Representatives open but marginally Republican, and the Democrats to make no net gains in the governor stakes.

On Monday, I shall report on the importance to the various parties of the different campaigns.

I am also trying to get around the problem of spamming so for the time being please email me at antoine.clarke[at]gmail.com.

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