I've been gathering information and analysis for the November 2004 elections in the U.S. over the past three months. My track record in elections is generally good, especially long-range forecasting. I have "called" elections (mostly correctly) in the U.K., France, and the U.S. for the past 17 years.
I shall be uploading some of my material over the coming week and comment on new developments as I go along.
Part of my service will be to publish a campaign status: what the current outcome would be, given what predictable events are between now and election day. At this tentative stage, I put the presidency as marginally Bush, the Senate a Republican hold with an increased majority, the House of Representatives open but marginally Republican, and the Democrats to make no net gains in the governor stakes.
On Monday, I shall report on the importance to the various parties of the different campaigns.
I am also trying to get around the problem of spamming so for the time being please email me at antoine.clarke[at]gmail.com.
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