Reports here and here, from Chile suggest that Michelle Bachelet, the leading candidate for the presidency, is a shoo-in for the second round with her estimated 45% of the first round vote.
The truth is somewhat different. Joaquin Lavin, the right-wing candidate who finished third with about 23% of the vote has endorsed his rival Sebastian Pinera (who scored over 25%, and urged his supporters to back a united right-wing campaign in the second round.
If the Socialist candidate were perceived as promoting actual socialist policies, it seems almost certain that she would be defeated in the second round of voting. However, with the economy generally in good shape thanks to the Left's stable economic policies over the past 15 years, we may see a less than total mobilization of conservative voters.
Don't bet the house either way (yet) on this one!
12/12/2005
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