5/28/2006

Warner still looks like a good outside bet

Hillary Clinton remains the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. presidential election in 2008. If she doesn't get the nod, my consistent guess has been that Mark Warner, the Virginia Governor who stood down with over 80% approval ratings in a broadly Republican state is the best pick.

Here, My DD publishes a somewhat glowing plug for Mr Warner.

Warner has been tracking a clear second place for several months now. Unlike John Edwards, who stood down as Senator in North Carolina (to avoid getting beaten in 2004), I would expect Warner to be an asset in the South.

There are solid (if only in terms of national name-recognition) and well-funded alternatives: John Kerry and Al Gore immediately spring to mind. Anyone offering good odds that Mark Warner will not get either the President or Vice-President nomination should be taken on.

1 comment:

Matthew said...

I'm not the betting type, but I don't see Warner getting the nomination, even if Clinton drops out for some reason.

The kind of Democrat who can win a gubernatorial race in a state like Virginia is a kind of Democrat who is much too far to the right for the national party.

And I do not see a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes for some time to come--not even Warner.

In building a strategy--and for a nominee if it's not Clinton--Democrats will be looking to the intermountain West, not south. They could get back New Mexico and conceivably take or at least make competitive some combination of Colorado, Nevada, and Montana. But, aside from Florida (which is 'south' only in its own north), the south is likely pretty much out of reach for now.