One of the problems with opinion polls in elections is that the margins of error are often greater than the majority for either side.
This can be seen most graphically in the Electoral Vote Predictor for last November's U.S. presidential election.
On election day this map shows what the editors of Electoral Vote Predictor believed the result would be.
Apart from getting the overall result wrong by predicting a john Kerry victory, no fewer than five states were won by the opposite party, and the errors were not all to the Democrats. New Jersey was also called an "exactly tied" state. I note Virginia listed as "Barely Bush" when it was won by about 9 percentage points.
The fault is not with the website editors, although they could have disregarded the less credible Zogby polling.
2/08/2005
2/07/2005
In praise of RealClearPolitics.com
Mrs Lynne Cheney, the wife of U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney, is quoted from a recent television interview as being a regular reader of blogs, including RealClearPolitics.com.
Mrs Cheney said of blogs in general: "It is a real democratization of information so that people don't have to rely on one or two sources, they've got multiple sources. And I can tell in about two minutes on a blog whether this is someone whose opinion I value or not."
RealClearPolitics in particular Mrs Cheney said that she "certainly looked at a lot during the campaign."
For the basic mechanics of U.S. elections, I have found that the Green Papers is the most encyclopaedic source. If you want to know what the term limits for the Governor of Virginia are (1 four year term) or what the election cycle of U.S. Senators in Utah is (classes 1 and 3), or which are the six states that have been won by every succesful presidential campaign since 1972 (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee), then the Green Papers is for you.
However, if you want to know what's in the media right now, what the shape of the present political climate is and who's going to win next time, RealClearPolitics is an essential guide.
Not only is the sheer volume of material awesome: the home page alone is almost enough to make me quit blogging. The combination of totally professional opinion poll selection and analysis on the one hand and fearless commentary (on a different page) is a model for the rest of us, including the so-called mainstream.
I don't know what Charlie Cook's politics are, and I suspect that the editors of the Green Papers may have a liberal outlook. Both however have no hesitation in recommending RealClearPolics.com. I suspect that I am not alone in using RealClearPolitics as a portal for non-Republican sites.
The only complaint from me is that the typeface used is not as legible as using Arial would be.
Mrs Cheney said of blogs in general: "It is a real democratization of information so that people don't have to rely on one or two sources, they've got multiple sources. And I can tell in about two minutes on a blog whether this is someone whose opinion I value or not."
RealClearPolitics in particular Mrs Cheney said that she "certainly looked at a lot during the campaign."
For the basic mechanics of U.S. elections, I have found that the Green Papers is the most encyclopaedic source. If you want to know what the term limits for the Governor of Virginia are (1 four year term) or what the election cycle of U.S. Senators in Utah is (classes 1 and 3), or which are the six states that have been won by every succesful presidential campaign since 1972 (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee), then the Green Papers is for you.
However, if you want to know what's in the media right now, what the shape of the present political climate is and who's going to win next time, RealClearPolitics is an essential guide.
Not only is the sheer volume of material awesome: the home page alone is almost enough to make me quit blogging. The combination of totally professional opinion poll selection and analysis on the one hand and fearless commentary (on a different page) is a model for the rest of us, including the so-called mainstream.
I don't know what Charlie Cook's politics are, and I suspect that the editors of the Green Papers may have a liberal outlook. Both however have no hesitation in recommending RealClearPolics.com. I suspect that I am not alone in using RealClearPolitics as a portal for non-Republican sites.
The only complaint from me is that the typeface used is not as legible as using Arial would be.
2/01/2005
On the Defensive
The New York Times is concerned about the "chequebook politics" employed by U.S. Senator Jon Corzine in the race for the Democratic nomination for the New Jersey governor's election in November this year.
In 2005, there are no elections scheduled for either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives, leaving only two gubernatorial elections: New Jersey and Virginia.
With acting governor of New Jersey Richard Codey announcing that he will not stand for a full-term and his predecessor (James E. "Jim" McGreevey)having stood down in controversial circumstances, New Jersey is a relatively good target for a Republican gain.
Meanwhile in Virginia, the state has a one-term of office limit, meaning that Governor Mark Warner (Democrat) cannot stand again. Considering that the previous elected Governor was a Republican and the state's strong Republican showing in statewide elections, and this looks like an even better Republican win prospect.
With 28 Republican governors out of 50, and the tainted election in Washington State still bubbling away quietly, the ambitions for Democrats in 2005 are restricted to holding onto what they have.
In 2005, there are no elections scheduled for either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives, leaving only two gubernatorial elections: New Jersey and Virginia.
With acting governor of New Jersey Richard Codey announcing that he will not stand for a full-term and his predecessor (James E. "Jim" McGreevey)having stood down in controversial circumstances, New Jersey is a relatively good target for a Republican gain.
Meanwhile in Virginia, the state has a one-term of office limit, meaning that Governor Mark Warner (Democrat) cannot stand again. Considering that the previous elected Governor was a Republican and the state's strong Republican showing in statewide elections, and this looks like an even better Republican win prospect.
With 28 Republican governors out of 50, and the tainted election in Washington State still bubbling away quietly, the ambitions for Democrats in 2005 are restricted to holding onto what they have.
12/24/2004
12/23/2004
Lead switches in Washington State
The counting is over.
Christine Gregoire, the Democrat candidate for Governor of Washington State has overturned a 261 vote deficit on polling day (November 2) to win by 130. The score is subject to final confirmation by the Washington Secretary of State's office and of course, the lawyers...
As a former candidate myself in three much smaller scale local elections, I can honestly say that Dino Rossi the Republican candidate must be absolutely gutted.
Having apparently won by 261 votes, Rossi saw his lead whittled to 42 by the combination of a machine recount and what to a British audience can only be described as bizarre election procedures. His lead then grew to 50, before King County's late return changed the outcome.
First, voters who somehow were not included on electoral lists were allowed to vote "provisionally". Bluntly, this is nothing less than an open-door to massive voting fraud or error. As a means of encouraging turn-out it is simply crazy. It encourages people to not bother registering to vote properly and gives election officials an easy excuse for lazyness ("Don't bother with that, Mr Smith, just show up at the polling station on the day and my colleagues will let you vote").
Second, those who filled in ballot papers incorrectly but made a "clear intent" were added. This procedure in isolation is perfectly legitimate, provided of course that the same standards are used in all polling stations. Given the bizarre fluctuations in recount scores from different counties, let's just say I think the process was run by incompetent amateurs or crooks.
Third, postal votes franked on the day of the election were allowed. If the US Post Office is as slack as its British counterpart, then the practice of posting letters with the wrong frank mark (i.e. posted the day after the date marked on the envelope) cannot be ruled out. Even if no fraud occurred, it is imbecilic to have an election held up by the post. There is no excuse for not having a cut-off of votes received before or on polling day.
Fourth, it appears that different standards were applied for accepting votes during the course of the recounts. It can't be fraud! It's too obvious, it must be incompetence.
Fifth, allowing King County to report after the rest of the State is ridiculous. It means that any corrupt practice in that district will automatically succeed in its object. If the King County favoured candidate needs 100 extra votes to win, no problem, they can be found... The truth is that no result where the lead changes once the last county declares a result several days after the others can be accepted without serious concerns for the propriety of the counting process.
Whoever lost this election has more than sufficient grounds for feeling cheated. How did over 500 ballot papers disappear for a month? If Rossi had won, Gregoire would surely want to know.
What really bothers me is the thought that the US government is supervising elections in civil war-torn Iraq in January 2005. How the hell will the Iraqi parties deal with this sort of incompetence?
Christine Gregoire, the Democrat candidate for Governor of Washington State has overturned a 261 vote deficit on polling day (November 2) to win by 130. The score is subject to final confirmation by the Washington Secretary of State's office and of course, the lawyers...
As a former candidate myself in three much smaller scale local elections, I can honestly say that Dino Rossi the Republican candidate must be absolutely gutted.
Having apparently won by 261 votes, Rossi saw his lead whittled to 42 by the combination of a machine recount and what to a British audience can only be described as bizarre election procedures. His lead then grew to 50, before King County's late return changed the outcome.
First, voters who somehow were not included on electoral lists were allowed to vote "provisionally". Bluntly, this is nothing less than an open-door to massive voting fraud or error. As a means of encouraging turn-out it is simply crazy. It encourages people to not bother registering to vote properly and gives election officials an easy excuse for lazyness ("Don't bother with that, Mr Smith, just show up at the polling station on the day and my colleagues will let you vote").
Second, those who filled in ballot papers incorrectly but made a "clear intent" were added. This procedure in isolation is perfectly legitimate, provided of course that the same standards are used in all polling stations. Given the bizarre fluctuations in recount scores from different counties, let's just say I think the process was run by incompetent amateurs or crooks.
Third, postal votes franked on the day of the election were allowed. If the US Post Office is as slack as its British counterpart, then the practice of posting letters with the wrong frank mark (i.e. posted the day after the date marked on the envelope) cannot be ruled out. Even if no fraud occurred, it is imbecilic to have an election held up by the post. There is no excuse for not having a cut-off of votes received before or on polling day.
Fourth, it appears that different standards were applied for accepting votes during the course of the recounts. It can't be fraud! It's too obvious, it must be incompetence.
Fifth, allowing King County to report after the rest of the State is ridiculous. It means that any corrupt practice in that district will automatically succeed in its object. If the King County favoured candidate needs 100 extra votes to win, no problem, they can be found... The truth is that no result where the lead changes once the last county declares a result several days after the others can be accepted without serious concerns for the propriety of the counting process.
Whoever lost this election has more than sufficient grounds for feeling cheated. How did over 500 ballot papers disappear for a month? If Rossi had won, Gregoire would surely want to know.
What really bothers me is the thought that the US government is supervising elections in civil war-torn Iraq in January 2005. How the hell will the Iraqi parties deal with this sort of incompetence?
Kos says shoot Kerry and his team
I am reminded of the poster in the Kingston-upon-Thames offices of a local branch of a British political party in 1987.
Apologies for the relative dearth of postings this week. I'm waiting for news from Olympia, Washington about the gubernatorial race.
The Six Phases of an Election
1. Enthusiasm
2. Disillusionment
3. Panic
4. The Search for the Guilty
5. The Punishment of the Innocent
6. Rewards and Honours for Non-participants
Apologies for the relative dearth of postings this week. I'm waiting for news from Olympia, Washington about the gubernatorial race.
12/18/2004
King County should fix it for Gregoire
With only one county left to report, from 39, the Democrat position in the Washington State Governor election seems unassailable. King County, which polls 3 to 2 for the Democrats against the Republicans is expected to find an extra 500 votes or more. In the previous re-count, 593 extra votes for the Democrat candidate Christine Gregoire were counted, compared with 348 for Dino Rossi, her Republican opponent. Because the result currently stands at at Rossi lead of 42, plus eight net votes added from the other 38 counties of Washington State, it would now be extraordinary if the King County manual recount does not produce a Democrat win, despite Gregoire being behind in both statewide tallies so far.
The conspiracy theorists don't have far to look for evidence that something odd happened between November 2 and December 23 2004. Consider the discrepencies between the standards of different counties. Not one county managed to achieve the same score in the original count, the machine recount and the hand recount. Cowlitz county managed to reduce the scores of both major parties in both recounts, whilst finding one extra Libertarian vote. Given that provisional ballots were being checked for possible inclusion this pattern is completely at odds with the rest of Washington state. Wahkiakum county produced the only figure that makes sense. There the machine recount added one vote to Rossi and the hand recount found one less, suggesting that the original count was good. It is obvious that the standards are either inconsistent from one county to another, or fraud is taking place under the noses of election officials. Reports of several hundred votes "forgotten" in King County suggest either a degree of open fraud that beggars belief, or a degree of incompetence that is simply awesome. Get FedEx in to run the polling stations and handle the delivery of ballot boxes!
For Rossi, defeat in these circumstances seems likely to propel him into a Senatorial campaign in two years time, a campaign he might well win.
The conspiracy theorists don't have far to look for evidence that something odd happened between November 2 and December 23 2004. Consider the discrepencies between the standards of different counties. Not one county managed to achieve the same score in the original count, the machine recount and the hand recount. Cowlitz county managed to reduce the scores of both major parties in both recounts, whilst finding one extra Libertarian vote. Given that provisional ballots were being checked for possible inclusion this pattern is completely at odds with the rest of Washington state. Wahkiakum county produced the only figure that makes sense. There the machine recount added one vote to Rossi and the hand recount found one less, suggesting that the original count was good. It is obvious that the standards are either inconsistent from one county to another, or fraud is taking place under the noses of election officials. Reports of several hundred votes "forgotten" in King County suggest either a degree of open fraud that beggars belief, or a degree of incompetence that is simply awesome. Get FedEx in to run the polling stations and handle the delivery of ballot boxes!
For Rossi, defeat in these circumstances seems likely to propel him into a Senatorial campaign in two years time, a campaign he might well win.
12/16/2004
Back in the Ukraine
According to Michael Fumento on TechCentral Station, Viktor Yushenko's poison was not as deadly as anti-chemicals activists have claimed. Bizarrely, Mr Yushenko may owe his life to the fact that his would-be murderers believed environmentalist propaganda!
The Ukrainian presidential election second round re-run will take place on December 26.
"We don't know of a single person who has ever died of acute dioxin poisoning," says Robert Golden, president of the Maryland-based consulting firm ToxLogic.
It's also terribly rude to say dioxin is not a human carcinogen. The International Agency for Research on Cancer insists it is, and the EPA desperately wants to call it one but its own review panels keep getting in the way.
Yet in addition to the Ranch Hands, we have cancer data from throughout the world concerning workers or townsfolk exposed to dioxin through accidental releases. No type of cancer shows up consistently. As a paper in last December's Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology concluded, "The long-term accumulation of negative, weak, and inconsistent findings suggests that [dioxin] eventually will be recognized as not carcinogenic for humans."
The Ukrainian presidential election second round re-run will take place on December 26.
12/15/2004
Spinning coin...
The Washington State gubernatorial election saga enters its eighth week and there is still no clear outcome. Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed believes he will be able to declare a result by December 23.
On the one hand, Democrats are cheered by news that 561 ballots that were "mistakenly rejected" not once but twice, should be included in the King County total. As King County (including Seattle) accounts for over 35% of the Democrat score and the Democrats there outnumber Republicans by almost 3 to 2, such a change would appear to spell doom for Dino Rossi's chances of holding his lead.
In the original count Rossi beat Christine Gregoire by 261 votes. After a machine recount which also saw many provisional ballots added to the toal, the Republican candidate's lead was cut to a mere 42 out of more than 2.8 million votes cast.
On the other hand my analysis of the corrections occuring in counties that have reported for the second and manual recount suggests that the picture is less rosy for Gregoire.
Across the whole State the average increase in the Democratic vote from the original to the first (machine) recount was 33.1 votes per county. For the 33 counties that have reported at the time of writing, the figure was 6.1 votes per county. So far in the second (hand) recount the number has incread to 6.1 per county, suggesting that the overall score could be 51.8 per county, or 1820 votes across Washington State.
However, the equivalent calculations for the Republican candidate suggest that his vote could increase by 2508 votes across the state, giving Rossi a majority in the region of 700 votes. The Libertarian candidate Ruth Bennett could add about 95 votes to an already impressive total of more than 63,000. Bennett scored more than five times the number of votes gained by Michael Badnarik (the Libertarian presidential candidate) in the State of Washington.
All this of course depends on the notion that the errors and challenges to disputed votes break evenly in the six remaining counties.
The coin is still spinning...
UPDATE: With results published for a 34th county (Skagit), a total of 24 ballots fewer have been counted. This marginally affects the calculations and does not alter the prognosis I have made above. It's still increadibly tight, but Rossi has picked up a thin advantage, with King county to come.
On the one hand, Democrats are cheered by news that 561 ballots that were "mistakenly rejected" not once but twice, should be included in the King County total. As King County (including Seattle) accounts for over 35% of the Democrat score and the Democrats there outnumber Republicans by almost 3 to 2, such a change would appear to spell doom for Dino Rossi's chances of holding his lead.
In the original count Rossi beat Christine Gregoire by 261 votes. After a machine recount which also saw many provisional ballots added to the toal, the Republican candidate's lead was cut to a mere 42 out of more than 2.8 million votes cast.
On the other hand my analysis of the corrections occuring in counties that have reported for the second and manual recount suggests that the picture is less rosy for Gregoire.
Across the whole State the average increase in the Democratic vote from the original to the first (machine) recount was 33.1 votes per county. For the 33 counties that have reported at the time of writing, the figure was 6.1 votes per county. So far in the second (hand) recount the number has incread to 6.1 per county, suggesting that the overall score could be 51.8 per county, or 1820 votes across Washington State.
However, the equivalent calculations for the Republican candidate suggest that his vote could increase by 2508 votes across the state, giving Rossi a majority in the region of 700 votes. The Libertarian candidate Ruth Bennett could add about 95 votes to an already impressive total of more than 63,000. Bennett scored more than five times the number of votes gained by Michael Badnarik (the Libertarian presidential candidate) in the State of Washington.
All this of course depends on the notion that the errors and challenges to disputed votes break evenly in the six remaining counties.
The coin is still spinning...
UPDATE: With results published for a 34th county (Skagit), a total of 24 ballots fewer have been counted. This marginally affects the calculations and does not alter the prognosis I have made above. It's still increadibly tight, but Rossi has picked up a thin advantage, with King county to come.
12/10/2004
Bad for Rossi, Good for Gregoire
The hand recount in Washington State for the gubernatorial election of November 2, is underway, and is showing anomalies between the machine recount and the present check. As expected, the Libertarian candidate has been losing votes. Although the Republican Dino Rossi has (on paper) increased his lead to 43 over Democrat candidate Christine Gregoire, the signs are the King County will find sufficent extra votes to overturn the result. Some Republican activists have actually called on Rossi to concede in protest.
With 10 counties reporting, the discrepancies stand at: Democrat +28 votes, Republican +29 votes, Libertarian -2 votes. King County, which includes the city of Seattle, accounted for over 875,000 votes or over 30% of all votes cast. On current trends a discrepancy of over 800 would be consistent with 500 going to the Democrat candidate, sufficent to win the race for Governor. In the machine recount, King County found 971 extra votes of which 593 went to Gregoire.
Recounts in the US have a habit of boosting the Democrat score, whether in Washington, Ohio or Florida. Depending on one's political allegiance this is either cheating by Republicans who prevent good votes from counting, which is rectified in the recount, or cheating by Democrats who stuff the ballot boxes after the polls have closed. Either way, a bad taste is left by these lapses.
With 10 counties reporting, the discrepancies stand at: Democrat +28 votes, Republican +29 votes, Libertarian -2 votes. King County, which includes the city of Seattle, accounted for over 875,000 votes or over 30% of all votes cast. On current trends a discrepancy of over 800 would be consistent with 500 going to the Democrat candidate, sufficent to win the race for Governor. In the machine recount, King County found 971 extra votes of which 593 went to Gregoire.
Recounts in the US have a habit of boosting the Democrat score, whether in Washington, Ohio or Florida. Depending on one's political allegiance this is either cheating by Republicans who prevent good votes from counting, which is rectified in the recount, or cheating by Democrats who stuff the ballot boxes after the polls have closed. Either way, a bad taste is left by these lapses.
12/08/2004
Was it the Guardian wot won it for Bush?
I just had a discussion about Operation Clark County, that fatuous attempt by the London-based Socialist-leaning Guardian newspaper, to persuade Ohio voters to back John Kerry in the November 2 election. The question being considered was: did the Guardian (nicknamed the Grauniad for its frequent typographical errors and its leftist obsessions) win the presidential election (accidentally) for George Bush? In 1992, the Sun newspaper proclaimed on its front page after the fourth consecutive defeat for the British Labour Party that "It Was the Sun Wot Won It". Did the Guardian's patronizing meddling produce a similar, if unintended effect?
The set-up was as follows. The Guardian calculated (correctly) that Ohio would be a key state in the presidential election. Ian Katz and Oliver Burkeman, the 'geniuses' behind the campaign selected Clark County on the basis that Al Gore had supposedly won that county by a mere 324 votes or 1%. The Guardian also claimed that George W Bush had won Ohio by 4%, but that polls were showing a tight race with a virtual dead heat expected.
The truth was slightly different. Clark County did go for Gore, but only by 0.56%, and Bush won Ohio by 3.51% in 2000. So the background information was slightly wrong to begin with.
Robin Grant of perfect.co.uk, went one better, not only claiming to have set up the campaign but actually collecting local press coverage, including expressions of outrage from Clark County residents. Grant's smug chuckles at the right-wing bloggers look funny now, but not the way that he had intended.
The result of thousands of Guardian readers sending letters to independent voters in Clark County was nothing less than dramatic. The campaign, despite being a "roaring success" was cancelled as soon as letters began to arrive in Ohio.
A typical report of the time reads:
The local paper ran a story with the headline "Butt out Brits, voters say". USA Today describing the Guardian as a "left-leaning newspaper", poured scorn on the campaign, portraying it as at best a publicity stunt.
Both local Republican and Democrat campaigns described the move as self-defeating. The scorecard shows the cost of Operation Clark County to John Kerry's hopes of winning Ohio.
So the Guardian swing was 2.0% from the Democrats to Bush. Clark County was the only Ohio county to switch from a Democrat majority in 2000 to a Republican one in 2004. In fact such a swing only occurred in 5% of the whole country's 3,113 counties according to USA Today. If we imagine what effect Operation Clark County might have had if the Guardian had run it across the whole of the USA we get some startling results.
Kerry would have failed to win the only State to switch his way from 2000, New Hampshire with 4 electoral college votes. Worse still, Michigan (17 votes), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10) would all have fallen to the Republican onslaught if the Guardian effect had been felt in those states. The final outcome would have been a 355 to 183 electoral college massacre for Senator Kerry.
It gets worse.
The Guardian ended up giving out contact details for 14,000 voters out of the 56,000 originally planned for. If these had been sent and they had achieved the same scale of effect then the swing would have been eight per cent more to Bush. So a nationwide Guardian campaign could have given a further eight states totalling 130 electoral college votes for Bush. At 485 to 53, the Democratic Party can only pray that next time round no progressive billionaire pays for such an operation.
The short answer to the original question is 'No', Operation Clark County cannot be credited with finding the 118,775 votes for George Bush that got him re-elected. In the event, the entire voting population of Clark County going for John Kerry would not have been enough. But the margin of victory, which encouraged Senator Kerry to concede gracefully on November 3, might not have been there without the efforts of Guardian readers. I understand that the local Republican campaign office wrote a letter of thanks to the Guardian.
One final question. Did the Guardian pay for the copy of the electoral roll, or do the taxpayers of Clark County have to find an extra $25? I hope Mr Katz pays up. It's the least he can do for the 'impoverished' masses of Ohio.
The set-up was as follows. The Guardian calculated (correctly) that Ohio would be a key state in the presidential election. Ian Katz and Oliver Burkeman, the 'geniuses' behind the campaign selected Clark County on the basis that Al Gore had supposedly won that county by a mere 324 votes or 1%. The Guardian also claimed that George W Bush had won Ohio by 4%, but that polls were showing a tight race with a virtual dead heat expected.
The truth was slightly different. Clark County did go for Gore, but only by 0.56%, and Bush won Ohio by 3.51% in 2000. So the background information was slightly wrong to begin with.
Robin Grant of perfect.co.uk, went one better, not only claiming to have set up the campaign but actually collecting local press coverage, including expressions of outrage from Clark County residents. Grant's smug chuckles at the right-wing bloggers look funny now, but not the way that he had intended.
The result of thousands of Guardian readers sending letters to independent voters in Clark County was nothing less than dramatic. The campaign, despite being a "roaring success" was cancelled as soon as letters began to arrive in Ohio.
A typical report of the time reads:
The Springfield News-Sun also received about a dozen e-mails, starting early in the day, about the Guardian campaign, from places as diverse as New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Alaska and Switzerland, almost all of which expressed some degree of outrage.
The local paper ran a story with the headline "Butt out Brits, voters say". USA Today describing the Guardian as a "left-leaning newspaper", poured scorn on the campaign, portraying it as at best a publicity stunt.
Both local Republican and Democrat campaigns described the move as self-defeating. The scorecard shows the cost of Operation Clark County to John Kerry's hopes of winning Ohio.
| Clark County | 2004 | 2000 | ||
| votes | % | votes | % | |
| Republican | 34,938 | 50.78 | 27,660 | 48.06 |
| Democrat | 34,534 | 48.74 | 27,984 | 48.62 | Others | 331 | n/a | 1,915 | n/a |
| Ohio | 2004 | 2000 | ||
| votes | % | votes | % | |
| Republican | 2,858,727 | 50.82 | 2,351,209 | 49.98 |
| Democrat | 2,739,952 | 48.70 | 2,186,190 | 46.47 |
| Others | 26,952 | n/a | 167,058 | n/a |
| Republican majority or deficit (%) | |||
| 2004 | 2000 | swing | |
| Ohio | +2.12 | +3.51 | 0.7% to Democrat |
| Clark County | +0.56 | -2.04 | 1.3% to Republican |
So the Guardian swing was 2.0% from the Democrats to Bush. Clark County was the only Ohio county to switch from a Democrat majority in 2000 to a Republican one in 2004. In fact such a swing only occurred in 5% of the whole country's 3,113 counties according to USA Today. If we imagine what effect Operation Clark County might have had if the Guardian had run it across the whole of the USA we get some startling results.
Kerry would have failed to win the only State to switch his way from 2000, New Hampshire with 4 electoral college votes. Worse still, Michigan (17 votes), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10) would all have fallen to the Republican onslaught if the Guardian effect had been felt in those states. The final outcome would have been a 355 to 183 electoral college massacre for Senator Kerry.
It gets worse.
The Guardian ended up giving out contact details for 14,000 voters out of the 56,000 originally planned for. If these had been sent and they had achieved the same scale of effect then the swing would have been eight per cent more to Bush. So a nationwide Guardian campaign could have given a further eight states totalling 130 electoral college votes for Bush. At 485 to 53, the Democratic Party can only pray that next time round no progressive billionaire pays for such an operation.
The short answer to the original question is 'No', Operation Clark County cannot be credited with finding the 118,775 votes for George Bush that got him re-elected. In the event, the entire voting population of Clark County going for John Kerry would not have been enough. But the margin of victory, which encouraged Senator Kerry to concede gracefully on November 3, might not have been there without the efforts of Guardian readers. I understand that the local Republican campaign office wrote a letter of thanks to the Guardian.
One final question. Did the Guardian pay for the copy of the electoral roll, or do the taxpayers of Clark County have to find an extra $25? I hope Mr Katz pays up. It's the least he can do for the 'impoverished' masses of Ohio.
12/07/2004
Losers
A federal judge has ruled that a full recount in the state of Ohio should go ahead, following lobbying by David Cobb, the Green Party candidate and Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Party for US President.
To be honest the request makes no sense whatsoever for either candidate.
David Cobb wasn't even on the ballot and received 186 write-in votes, 11,721 less than the next placed candidate (Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party candidate). He only got 72 votes more than Joe Schriner, a local independent. So for the Green candidate the only outcome that could change is that instead of finishing 5th, he could finish 6th.
For Michael Badnarik there is even less sense. As the Libertarian Party candidate, he might be expected to turn down a chance to waste taxpayers' money. Instead he demands a recount. As the LP candidate scored 14,695 votes in Ohio, or 2,725,357 fewer than John Kerry (Democrat), it does not seem plausible that Badnarik thinks he could finish second. On the contrary, the LP only finished 2,717 votes ahead of his nearest rival (Peroutka). So again there is only one plausible change, Badnarik could finish 4th instead of 3rd.
If there was any chance the result might give the minor parties automatic registration on the ballot next time, I could approve of the attempt.
Of course the real reason for the sudden enthusiasm of Libertarians and Greens for a full recount has more to do with the perception that if a recount lead to a Kerry win in Ohio, which overturned the presidential election, then both the Green and Libertarian parties could proclaim that they had achieved a massive impact.
However, unlike Florida in 2000, the gap between the Republican and Democrat candidates is greater than the total number of minor party votes combined (119,775). At 2.12%, the lead President Bush enjoyed over Senator Kerry was more than 230 times greater than that of Florida in 2000.
UPDATE: I found this news release from the Libertarian Party. It claims that the purpose of the recount is to "expose irregularities" in the election process.
More revealing of Michael Badnarik's agenda is the following quote:
So there we have it. Badnarik wants the John Kerry to win the presidency. And he is willing to waste $1.5 million of Ohio's taxpayers' money to try to achieve this aim. No amount of spin can dress this up as a vehicle for advancing Libertarian ideas.
To be honest the request makes no sense whatsoever for either candidate.
David Cobb wasn't even on the ballot and received 186 write-in votes, 11,721 less than the next placed candidate (Michael Peroutka, the Constitution Party candidate). He only got 72 votes more than Joe Schriner, a local independent. So for the Green candidate the only outcome that could change is that instead of finishing 5th, he could finish 6th.
For Michael Badnarik there is even less sense. As the Libertarian Party candidate, he might be expected to turn down a chance to waste taxpayers' money. Instead he demands a recount. As the LP candidate scored 14,695 votes in Ohio, or 2,725,357 fewer than John Kerry (Democrat), it does not seem plausible that Badnarik thinks he could finish second. On the contrary, the LP only finished 2,717 votes ahead of his nearest rival (Peroutka). So again there is only one plausible change, Badnarik could finish 4th instead of 3rd.
If there was any chance the result might give the minor parties automatic registration on the ballot next time, I could approve of the attempt.
Of course the real reason for the sudden enthusiasm of Libertarians and Greens for a full recount has more to do with the perception that if a recount lead to a Kerry win in Ohio, which overturned the presidential election, then both the Green and Libertarian parties could proclaim that they had achieved a massive impact.
However, unlike Florida in 2000, the gap between the Republican and Democrat candidates is greater than the total number of minor party votes combined (119,775). At 2.12%, the lead President Bush enjoyed over Senator Kerry was more than 230 times greater than that of Florida in 2000.
UPDATE: I found this news release from the Libertarian Party. It claims that the purpose of the recount is to "expose irregularities" in the election process.
More revealing of Michael Badnarik's agenda is the following quote:
In addition to other perceived fraud -- or at least irregularities -- in Ohio's presidential election, Badnarik pointed to the "disturbing" fact that exit polls in many states showed Kerry winning the race.
"The phenomenon that is most damaging, in my point of view, is that for 20 years now, the media have been doing exit polls and using that information to project who was going to win that election," he said. "And because people leaving the polling places are typically very candid, the exit polls have historically been within 1 percent of the actual vote totals.
"Now, all of a sudden in this election, the exit polls and the vote totals differ by a significant amount -- and the talking heads on television are looking at it and wondering why the exit polls were wrong in this election. From what I can see, there's no reason to believe the exit polls were wrong, and fairly good reasons to believe that it was the election process that was faulty."
So there we have it. Badnarik wants the John Kerry to win the presidency. And he is willing to waste $1.5 million of Ohio's taxpayers' money to try to achieve this aim. No amount of spin can dress this up as a vehicle for advancing Libertarian ideas.
A little overtime before Christmas
Latest from the Washington State governor election saga.
The hand recount order has been signed and sealed. The political parties are now trying to find volunteers to hang around for up to two weeks staring at piles of paper to a) deter the other side from voiding any of our votes and b) trying to spot void votes allocated to the other side. Details here.
Having done this sort of thing myself I can honestly say that I defy anyone to keep their mind on it for more than two hours, never mind ten days, knowing that the gap of 42 votes is 0.0015% of the total cast. Normally a scrutineer can comfort him or herself with the thought that a single error probably won't make a difference. In my experience we would watch the votes being counted for a couple of minutes, concentrating on small batches to watch for any discrepencies (votes for our candidate in the wrong pile, a stack that should have 50 votes with 51 instead). Added to the fun we can't touch the ballot papers in the UK, but have to attract the attention of the returning officer or a deputy to come over and check our query.
Having worked in banks with note counting machines, and hand counted £35,000 in small bills once, I would be amazed if a hand count failed to reveal more than 42 errors out of 2.8 million. Counting machines are built for speed. Ideally I would use them to double check a hand count. At a guess, the recount and the machines will have done a great job if fewer than 250 votes change hands across the state. Of course many of these errors would cancel each other out: there's no reason to suppose that Rossi votes stick together more than Gregoire's do.
Because the Libertarians may not have a full complement of volunteers for this hand recount, expect some of their votes to be challenged...
The hand recount order has been signed and sealed. The political parties are now trying to find volunteers to hang around for up to two weeks staring at piles of paper to a) deter the other side from voiding any of our votes and b) trying to spot void votes allocated to the other side. Details here.
Having done this sort of thing myself I can honestly say that I defy anyone to keep their mind on it for more than two hours, never mind ten days, knowing that the gap of 42 votes is 0.0015% of the total cast. Normally a scrutineer can comfort him or herself with the thought that a single error probably won't make a difference. In my experience we would watch the votes being counted for a couple of minutes, concentrating on small batches to watch for any discrepencies (votes for our candidate in the wrong pile, a stack that should have 50 votes with 51 instead). Added to the fun we can't touch the ballot papers in the UK, but have to attract the attention of the returning officer or a deputy to come over and check our query.
Having worked in banks with note counting machines, and hand counted £35,000 in small bills once, I would be amazed if a hand count failed to reveal more than 42 errors out of 2.8 million. Counting machines are built for speed. Ideally I would use them to double check a hand count. At a guess, the recount and the machines will have done a great job if fewer than 250 votes change hands across the state. Of course many of these errors would cancel each other out: there's no reason to suppose that Rossi votes stick together more than Gregoire's do.
Because the Libertarians may not have a full complement of volunteers for this hand recount, expect some of their votes to be challenged...
12/06/2004
Cajun musical chairs
Results in Louisiana for the run-offs for the US House of Representatives, have left the Republicans winning a Democrat seat and the Democrats winning a Republican one. [Thanks to RealClearPolitics for the link.]
The elections are unique in the USA because Louisiana has the French electoral system of having no primaries, so all potential candidates stand in a first round of voting on general election day. If no candidate passes 50% of the vote, the top two candidates go to a run-off election the following month. This is the same election system used in successfully France and recently seen in the Ukraine (in less favourable circumstances).
With the final results for the US House of Representatives now in the score is:
N.B. There were two vacant seats going into the 2004 election.
So the Republican Party has made its five gains after all, confirming that 2004 was a disaster for the Democratic Party across the board nationally. If the Washington State governor election re-count confirms a Republican gain there, then the Democrats will end 2004 with fewer presidential electoral college votes than 2000, fewer Senators and House Representatives than 2002 (already a bad year), and fewer Governors than in 2003 (which included the California recall fiasco for the Democrats).
And they probably outspent the Republicans this time, if we include outside supporters. Ouch!
The elections are unique in the USA because Louisiana has the French electoral system of having no primaries, so all potential candidates stand in a first round of voting on general election day. If no candidate passes 50% of the vote, the top two candidates go to a run-off election the following month. This is the same election system used in successfully France and recently seen in the Ukraine (in less favourable circumstances).
With the final results for the US House of Representatives now in the score is:
| Year | Party | ||
| 2004 | Republican 232 | Democrat 202 | Independent 1 |
| 2002 | Republican 227 | Democrat 205 | Independent 1 |
| Change | Republican +5 | Democrat -3 | Independent n/c |
N.B. There were two vacant seats going into the 2004 election.
So the Republican Party has made its five gains after all, confirming that 2004 was a disaster for the Democratic Party across the board nationally. If the Washington State governor election re-count confirms a Republican gain there, then the Democrats will end 2004 with fewer presidential electoral college votes than 2000, fewer Senators and House Representatives than 2002 (already a bad year), and fewer Governors than in 2003 (which included the California recall fiasco for the Democrats).
And they probably outspent the Republicans this time, if we include outside supporters. Ouch!
12/04/2004
Do all voters use public transportation and listen to their iPods after stopping by Starbucks?
The US Democratic Party is gearing up to change its national party chairman, a process that seems to have more significance to the party's members than worrying about who leads the party in the Senate (post-Daschle) or the House of Representatives.
Charlie Cook weighs in with advice for the Democrats, most of which I agree with.
Cook writes:
One bit I don't care for is:
I think the last thing the Democrats need is "dirty fingers". Stories are circulating about Marc Rich, whose wife made a donation to Hillary Clinton's Senate election campaign fund. Somehow Mr Rich got a presidential pardon as one of Bill Clinton's final gestures as President. It seems that Mr Rich may have been involved in the sorts of oil deals with Iran and Iraq that would normally fit a Bond movie super-villain's profile, not an upstanding member of the community famed for his philanthropy. Point taken about the need for an effective fundraiser.
I agree with two out of three of Charlie Cook's final requirements for a new DNC chairman:
If they can find a former Governor of a Southern State who has actually eaten at Wendy's when not on the campaign trail and has an outgoing personality, I'm sure the US electorate wouldn't mind too much if he or she happened to get a scholarship to go to an Ivy League college.
Charlie Cook weighs in with advice for the Democrats, most of which I agree with.
Cook writes:
My friend and colleague, Hotline editor Chuck Todd, points out that with the exception of black radio stations, the Kerry campaign and the Media Fund bought virtually no radio advertising in this campaign, despite the fact that outside of the cities themselves, people drive cars (and even trucks!) and an important way to reach voters is when they are listening to their car radios. It would seem that many Democratic media consultants believe that all voters use public transportation and listen to their iPods after stopping by Starbucks. Democrats would be well-advised to study how the Bush campaign found new ways to communicate with voters, while Team Kerry relied too much on television. Having spent a considerable amount of time in purple states this year, I can say with a good deal of authority that the law of diminishing returns on television advertising was long past exceeded in this campaign.
One bit I don't care for is:
Fourth, the next head of the DNC needs to be someone who knows how to raise money and isn't afraid of getting their fingers dirty doing it.
I think the last thing the Democrats need is "dirty fingers". Stories are circulating about Marc Rich, whose wife made a donation to Hillary Clinton's Senate election campaign fund. Somehow Mr Rich got a presidential pardon as one of Bill Clinton's final gestures as President. It seems that Mr Rich may have been involved in the sorts of oil deals with Iran and Iraq that would normally fit a Bond movie super-villain's profile, not an upstanding member of the community famed for his philanthropy. Point taken about the need for an effective fundraiser.
I agree with two out of three of Charlie Cook's final requirements for a new DNC chairman:
And finally, Democrats must find someone who will adopt the following party bylaws: (1) Don't nominate anyone from the Northeast; (2) Don't nominate anyone with an Ivy League undergraduate degree; and (3) Don't nominate a stiff.
If they can find a former Governor of a Southern State who has actually eaten at Wendy's when not on the campaign trail and has an outgoing personality, I'm sure the US electorate wouldn't mind too much if he or she happened to get a scholarship to go to an Ivy League college.
"Seconds out, round three..."
The Washington gubernatorial election saga reaches a new stage: the second recount. This will be the third count for the election to replace Governor Gary Locke in the State of Washington since November 2 this year, but this time it will be carried out by hand.
Democrat Christine Gregoire's campaign has posted a certified cheque for $755,000 to pay for the recount. Republican Dino Rossi currently holds a lead of 42 votes out of over 2.8 million votes cast.
Daily Kos seems oblivious to this development. But then they're too busy discussing President Bush's share of the Latino votes in Texas last month and whether Democrats are superior beings for using non-Microsoft web browsers.
Democrat Christine Gregoire's campaign has posted a certified cheque for $755,000 to pay for the recount. Republican Dino Rossi currently holds a lead of 42 votes out of over 2.8 million votes cast.
Daily Kos seems oblivious to this development. But then they're too busy discussing President Bush's share of the Latino votes in Texas last month and whether Democrats are superior beings for using non-Microsoft web browsers.
11/30/2004
Shambles in Olympia
The election for Governor of the State of Washington (capital: Olympia) has been certified - for now.
As the Secretary of State for Washington, Sam Reed puts it: another recount is a virtual certainty.
This is just as bad as Florida 2000, a shambles caused by idiotic election procedures made worse by a culture of extraordinary complacency.
Because the presidency is not riding on this election, there is not the same degree of venom or media scrutiny. Yet it is unbelievable that for the same election, different counties can use different criteria for issuing provisional ballots, can define a valid ballot using different standards. It is incredible that someone can post a ballot paper on November 2, the day of the election, and it will be counted whenever the US Post Office deigns to deliver it. It is surely a grotesque opportunity for election fraud to allow people to cast "provisional" votes, who are not on the electoral register and may not even be required to provide proof of address, let alone identity.
US election staff do not strike me as achieving the levels of professional competence of those of their British counterparts that I have dealt with. Even without turnout figures that mean that in Washington State more than two and three quarter million votes have been cast, I would fear for the reliability of the system. Having used note counters in banks as a teller and found them unreliable, I do not put much faith in vote counting machines, even without corruption.
Add all of these factors together, throw in a habit of not waiting for polls to close before announcing results, give losing candidates opportunities to appeal to the courts or to politically biased assemblies and it is easy to see why US democracy looks shabby.
To be fair, there are voices for reform in the electoral process that could improve matters. Sam Reed, the Washington Secretary of State himself has outlined proposals that would have helped in 2004.
Also to be fair, no election process involving millions of ballots could stand the precise scrutiny of modern media and the blogosphere.
God help the Iraqi people if the sort of election process used in the US is adopted in Iraq next January. There would be "absentee ballots" turning up in June, legal challenges lasting for years, and even the most mild-mannered democratic politician would find it hard to accept defeat gracefully.
I wouldn't.
As the Secretary of State for Washington, Sam Reed puts it: another recount is a virtual certainty.
This is just as bad as Florida 2000, a shambles caused by idiotic election procedures made worse by a culture of extraordinary complacency.
Because the presidency is not riding on this election, there is not the same degree of venom or media scrutiny. Yet it is unbelievable that for the same election, different counties can use different criteria for issuing provisional ballots, can define a valid ballot using different standards. It is incredible that someone can post a ballot paper on November 2, the day of the election, and it will be counted whenever the US Post Office deigns to deliver it. It is surely a grotesque opportunity for election fraud to allow people to cast "provisional" votes, who are not on the electoral register and may not even be required to provide proof of address, let alone identity.
US election staff do not strike me as achieving the levels of professional competence of those of their British counterparts that I have dealt with. Even without turnout figures that mean that in Washington State more than two and three quarter million votes have been cast, I would fear for the reliability of the system. Having used note counters in banks as a teller and found them unreliable, I do not put much faith in vote counting machines, even without corruption.
Add all of these factors together, throw in a habit of not waiting for polls to close before announcing results, give losing candidates opportunities to appeal to the courts or to politically biased assemblies and it is easy to see why US democracy looks shabby.
To be fair, there are voices for reform in the electoral process that could improve matters. Sam Reed, the Washington Secretary of State himself has outlined proposals that would have helped in 2004.
Also to be fair, no election process involving millions of ballots could stand the precise scrutiny of modern media and the blogosphere.
God help the Iraqi people if the sort of election process used in the US is adopted in Iraq next January. There would be "absentee ballots" turning up in June, legal challenges lasting for years, and even the most mild-mannered democratic politician would find it hard to accept defeat gracefully.
I wouldn't.
11/27/2004
"Mano a mano" in Washington State
Some information about hand recounts in Washington State for the Governor's race that never seems to end.
Because the Republican majority is 42, if I've understood the regulations correctly, there are basically three options.
1) There is a recount by hand of the entire state, on the basis that the majority is less than 150 votes or 0.25 per cent.
2) The Democrat candidate concedes.
3) The two leading candidates have the option of agreeing a different method (for example selected counties only). If a recount in some counties leads to the result being overturned (i.e. the Democrat candidate takes the lead), then the whole state has to be recounted by hand.
At present the Washington Secretary of State's office (responsible for certifying election returns) believes that a definite result can be announced on December 2.
Because the Republican majority is 42, if I've understood the regulations correctly, there are basically three options.
1) There is a recount by hand of the entire state, on the basis that the majority is less than 150 votes or 0.25 per cent.
2) The Democrat candidate concedes.
3) The two leading candidates have the option of agreeing a different method (for example selected counties only). If a recount in some counties leads to the result being overturned (i.e. the Democrat candidate takes the lead), then the whole state has to be recounted by hand.
At present the Washington Secretary of State's office (responsible for certifying election returns) believes that a definite result can be announced on December 2.
Another brief aside: Ukraine
I don't have any special knowledge about Ukraine, except to speculate that the cleavage between Yushenko and Yanukovych strongholds looks very much like the Western parts that were once part of Poland are voting for the opposition and the Eastern parts that were under Tsarist rule for longer are more pro-Moscow.
However, from Instapundit I found this link to some election statistics, including turnout changes between the two rounds of voting. This is apparently one of the pieces of evidence supporting claims of ballot-rigging.
The turnout rose sometimes considerably on November 21, in regions where Viktor Yanukovych the pro-Moscow candidate gained massive support. In areas supporting the opposition candidate Viktor Yushenko, turnout practically stayed unchanged from the first round of voting on October 31.
However, from Instapundit I found this link to some election statistics, including turnout changes between the two rounds of voting. This is apparently one of the pieces of evidence supporting claims of ballot-rigging.
The turnout rose sometimes considerably on November 21, in regions where Viktor Yanukovych the pro-Moscow candidate gained massive support. In areas supporting the opposition candidate Viktor Yushenko, turnout practically stayed unchanged from the first round of voting on October 31.
11/26/2004
A brief aside: Palestinian Authority elections
The Palestinian Authority election for a new President to replace Yasser Arafat is due to take place on January 9 2005. Marwan Barghouti, described as a leader of the younger Fatah activists has announced his intention to challenge Mahmoud Abbas.
I am unfamiliar with the technical side of these elections so I have been doing some background reading.
For information from official Palestinian sources about the election process follow this link:
Various reports from:
Msnbc, Washington Times, Al Jazeera, and the Jerusalem Post.
For critical views about the likelyhood of elections taking place on schedule and fairly, as well as difficulties registering voters:
Newsday
Little Green Footballs
Global Security
The Australian
I am unfamiliar with the technical side of these elections so I have been doing some background reading.
For information from official Palestinian sources about the election process follow this link:
Various reports from:
Msnbc, Washington Times, Al Jazeera, and the Jerusalem Post.
For critical views about the likelyhood of elections taking place on schedule and fairly, as well as difficulties registering voters:
Newsday
Little Green Footballs
Global Security
The Australian
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