It's probably a bad idea for parliamentary election campaigns to be held at the same time for the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) and the Palestinian Authority. The opportunity for brinkmanship, provocation, violence, and stirring up of revanchiste passions is not conducive for election results that all participants can live with.
Two incidents reported today are clearly aimed at helping Likud in the Israeli elections, but they seem more likely to have an impact on the Palestinian vote.
First, the BBC reports that a row has erupted between the Israeli and Palestinian authorities over the decision to bar Palestinians living in Jerusalem from voting in the Palestinian election next month (January 15 2006).
The Israeli government's argument is that allowing East Jerusalem's Palestinians to vote would give Hamas power. It is hard to see that preventing some Palestinians from voting will encourage the others to vote for moderate candidates. In fact, the decision allows the Palestinian Authority's ruling party to cancel the election and blame the Israelis.
Second, as if to underscore the notion among Palestinians that Hamas is the real power in the Palestinian Authority, news that Zayid Khalil Moussa, a commander of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades (a leading Hamas terrorist group) has been killed in a shoot-out with Israeli troops in Jenin. One Israeli border guard was wounded.
Both incidents are of course aimed at encouraging Israeli voters to back either Likud or the new Kadima party, in advance of their March 28 2006 showdown.
12/21/2005
Rumours of election fraud in Iraq
With a two-week blackout period between the closing of polls in Iraq and the publication of official election returns, a great deal of speculation is going around, particularly about Shi'ite candidates doing unexpectedly well in Bagdad.
The shortage of external links in this posting on Iraq the Model, is an indication that we're not dealing with much published information.
More updates as I get them. For the record, this is what I wrote before the elections began.
The shortage of external links in this posting on Iraq the Model, is an indication that we're not dealing with much published information.
More updates as I get them. For the record, this is what I wrote before the elections began.
Democrats hold second place in O.C.
The election for the 48th congressional district of the U.S. House of Representatives ended, predictably, as a victory for the Republican candidate, Mr john Campbell [click here for official results].
I previewed the election here.
Despite considerable media attention, Jim Gilchrist, the candidate for tighter immigration controls failed to hold the second placed he held in the first round of voting. Democrat Steve Young is publicly gloating his second place, but the truth is that there was no fright for the Republicans to be had.
Local media comments on the election can be found here, and here.
The special election isn't really a disappointment for the Democrats, but if we take national polls [compiled by RealClear Politics] and compare them to this result, it is clear that claims of a Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives in 2006 are wildly optimistic.
I previewed the election here.
Despite considerable media attention, Jim Gilchrist, the candidate for tighter immigration controls failed to hold the second placed he held in the first round of voting. Democrat Steve Young is publicly gloating his second place, but the truth is that there was no fright for the Republicans to be had.
Local media comments on the election can be found here, and here.
The special election isn't really a disappointment for the Democrats, but if we take national polls [compiled by RealClear Politics] and compare them to this result, it is clear that claims of a Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives in 2006 are wildly optimistic.
12/12/2005
US Supreme Court to consider Texas gerrymandering cases
The U.S. Supreme Court is to review laws concerning the drawing up of congressional districts in the individual states, following complaints about the election of Republican members to the Federal House of Representatives.
Election Law blog carries an analysis on the possible effects of the appointment of two new supreme court justices since the last similar case in 2004.
Election Law blog carries an analysis on the possible effects of the appointment of two new supreme court justices since the last similar case in 2004.
Opinion Poll suggests that Iraqi elections will succeed
To the almost palpable amazement of much of the world's media, Iraqi public opinion (as far as it can be measured) remains doggedly optimistic about the future. People seem to be generally optimistic about their own lives (70%), rather than the general outlook for the country (44%), by support for the elections is high, with even a substantial minority of people in Sunni areas supporting them. It's intriguing to note that these figures are substantially better than for either the U.S. or the British administrations.
My tip: a higher turnout than in the last U.K. or U.S. general elections, to say nothing of the turnout in European constitution referendums!
There are positive political signs as well. Three-quarters of Iraqis express confidence in the national elections being held this week, 70 percent approve of the new constitution, and 70 percent — including most people in Sunni and Shiite areas alike — want Iraq to remain a unified country.
Interest in politics has soared.
Preference for a democratic political structure has advanced, to 57 percent of Iraqis, while support for an Islamic state has lost ground, to 14 percent (the rest, 26 percent, chiefly in Sunni Arab areas, favor a "single strong leader.")
My tip: a higher turnout than in the last U.K. or U.S. general elections, to say nothing of the turnout in European constitution referendums!
President Mubarak names women and Copts as "top-up" members of parliament
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has appointed five women and five Coptic Christians as members of Egypt's parliament after last week's final round of elections (report on earlier round here).
The Egyptian parliament has 454 members, most of whom are elected in stages.
The Egyptian parliament has 454 members, most of whom are elected in stages.
Early tip for Democrat challenger to Hillary Clinton
My early tip for a challenger to Hillary Clinton, outgoing Virginia Governor Mark Warner, has raised $2.5 million in what has been described as a "coming out party." I have commented earlier about the choice of Democratic candidate for the next U.S. presidential election of 2008.
Warner's approval ratings in Virginia ran to 80% and he is widely credited in having facilitated the election of his Democratic successor Tim Kaine. His problems at the moment are the relative low name recognition that Warner has outside the South, the superstar status and likely fundraising power of Senator Hillary Clinton (New York).
At this stage, I see no sign of a strong Republican candidate other than the aging and divisive (among Republicans) Senator John McCain. Right now, I would predict a Democrat win in 2008 if McCain is going to be the Republican nominee, against either Senator Clinton or ex-Governor Warner.
Warner's approval ratings in Virginia ran to 80% and he is widely credited in having facilitated the election of his Democratic successor Tim Kaine. His problems at the moment are the relative low name recognition that Warner has outside the South, the superstar status and likely fundraising power of Senator Hillary Clinton (New York).
At this stage, I see no sign of a strong Republican candidate other than the aging and divisive (among Republicans) Senator John McCain. Right now, I would predict a Democrat win in 2008 if McCain is going to be the Republican nominee, against either Senator Clinton or ex-Governor Warner.
Chile election goes to run-off
Reports here and here, from Chile suggest that Michelle Bachelet, the leading candidate for the presidency, is a shoo-in for the second round with her estimated 45% of the first round vote.
The truth is somewhat different. Joaquin Lavin, the right-wing candidate who finished third with about 23% of the vote has endorsed his rival Sebastian Pinera (who scored over 25%, and urged his supporters to back a united right-wing campaign in the second round.
If the Socialist candidate were perceived as promoting actual socialist policies, it seems almost certain that she would be defeated in the second round of voting. However, with the economy generally in good shape thanks to the Left's stable economic policies over the past 15 years, we may see a less than total mobilization of conservative voters.
Don't bet the house either way (yet) on this one!
The truth is somewhat different. Joaquin Lavin, the right-wing candidate who finished third with about 23% of the vote has endorsed his rival Sebastian Pinera (who scored over 25%, and urged his supporters to back a united right-wing campaign in the second round.
If the Socialist candidate were perceived as promoting actual socialist policies, it seems almost certain that she would be defeated in the second round of voting. However, with the economy generally in good shape thanks to the Left's stable economic policies over the past 15 years, we may see a less than total mobilization of conservative voters.
Don't bet the house either way (yet) on this one!
12/08/2005
Riots at Egyptian polling stations
It's easy to have a non-violent election: just make sure that all the parties agree to lose the next election and/or the one after that.
Balanced News Blog reports on violence at yesterday's final round of voting for the Egyptian parliament. The government's claims that the riots were provoked do not seem to be backed up by foreign reporters (but then this is the crew that showed us the return of Ayatollah Khomeni to Iran in 1979 as the dawn of democracy in that country, and informs us that two car bombs a day in Bagdad is evidence of a massive insurgency).
A shockingly naive view of Islamist politics, but which contains details of government repression in trying to limit Muslim Brotherhood election gains can be found in the New York Times [subscription may be required].
I may be doing the Muslim Brotherhood an injustice (I would be happy to stand corrected). I recall that in October 1992 for instance, it was Islamic volunteer efforts, allied to the Brotherhood, not the government, which organized effective relief efforts (food, water, tents) after the Cairo earthquake. The suspicion remains whether the appetite for democracy by Islamist parties is down to their failure to effect regime change through violence, and if they would allow an election to take place in which a non-Islamic party took their place in power. The historical evidence appears to be non-existent on the latter score.
The Egyptian government should never of course have repressed its citizens for so long that only an Islamist party offers an alternative. The Copts (Egypt's Christian minority) must be looking South at the genocidal warfare in the Sudan and wondering if the same could happen in Egypt.
Balanced News Blog reports on violence at yesterday's final round of voting for the Egyptian parliament. The government's claims that the riots were provoked do not seem to be backed up by foreign reporters (but then this is the crew that showed us the return of Ayatollah Khomeni to Iran in 1979 as the dawn of democracy in that country, and informs us that two car bombs a day in Bagdad is evidence of a massive insurgency).
A shockingly naive view of Islamist politics, but which contains details of government repression in trying to limit Muslim Brotherhood election gains can be found in the New York Times [subscription may be required].
I may be doing the Muslim Brotherhood an injustice (I would be happy to stand corrected). I recall that in October 1992 for instance, it was Islamic volunteer efforts, allied to the Brotherhood, not the government, which organized effective relief efforts (food, water, tents) after the Cairo earthquake. The suspicion remains whether the appetite for democracy by Islamist parties is down to their failure to effect regime change through violence, and if they would allow an election to take place in which a non-Islamic party took their place in power. The historical evidence appears to be non-existent on the latter score.
The Egyptian government should never of course have repressed its citizens for so long that only an Islamist party offers an alternative. The Copts (Egypt's Christian minority) must be looking South at the genocidal warfare in the Sudan and wondering if the same could happen in Egypt.
12/07/2005
Traffic interruption
Apologies for no posting for a couple of days.
My laptop and online connection was commandeered in an emergency.
Business resumes in the morning.
My laptop and online connection was commandeered in an emergency.
Business resumes in the morning.
12/05/2005
Paper trail
Pretty good post on Count Every Vote.
Just to make clear, I don't buy the 2004 "Ohio vote was stolen" line, at least in the sense that I doubt if the Republicans did anything worse than the Democrats did. As for the canard of exit polls: the early returns in 2004 were wrong because they were unrepresentative. Period. Exit polls always will have discrepancies with the counted result because 1) older conservatives generally don't brag about it to pollsters, 2) whoever thinks they're the minority may feel intimidated.
My only quibble with paper voting is the ridiculous "push a pencil through the perforation" system that gave use "hanging chads", "dimple chads" "pregnant chads" and months of wrangling in 2000.
If it's reasonable to expect an illiterate person to sign with an "X", I can't see why putting an "X" in a box won't do on a ballot paper. Many countries put party logos on the ballot paper, which should be enough for someone who can't read.
The only exceptions I can think of are blind people and those who can't hold a pencil. Worst case scenario there is to have proxy voting, but I'm sure there are viable alternatives.
Just to make clear, I don't buy the 2004 "Ohio vote was stolen" line, at least in the sense that I doubt if the Republicans did anything worse than the Democrats did. As for the canard of exit polls: the early returns in 2004 were wrong because they were unrepresentative. Period. Exit polls always will have discrepancies with the counted result because 1) older conservatives generally don't brag about it to pollsters, 2) whoever thinks they're the minority may feel intimidated.
My only quibble with paper voting is the ridiculous "push a pencil through the perforation" system that gave use "hanging chads", "dimple chads" "pregnant chads" and months of wrangling in 2000.
If it's reasonable to expect an illiterate person to sign with an "X", I can't see why putting an "X" in a box won't do on a ballot paper. Many countries put party logos on the ballot paper, which should be enough for someone who can't read.
The only exceptions I can think of are blind people and those who can't hold a pencil. Worst case scenario there is to have proxy voting, but I'm sure there are viable alternatives.
How to register to vote in Canada
Useful information here on how the Canadian elections authority puts together the final list of electors, and how latecomers should register.
Any lessons for certain parts of the U.S. we choose not to mention?
Any lessons for certain parts of the U.S. we choose not to mention?
What those Canadian MPs really did
For all undecided Canadian voters there's a useful web resource: the "How'd they vote?" site.
It's a pretty easy to use tool for anyone interested in following Canadian parliamentary politics. I'd love to see one for the U.S. Supreme Court!
[Hat-tip M.D. Benoit on her Life's Weirder than Fiction blog.]
It's a pretty easy to use tool for anyone interested in following Canadian parliamentary politics. I'd love to see one for the U.S. Supreme Court!
[Hat-tip M.D. Benoit on her Life's Weirder than Fiction blog.]
Palestinian Authority election: a multiple choice test
The Palestinian Authority election will be a multiple test. First there is the logistical problem of running the election. That could turn out to be the least of President Mahmoud Abbas's problems.
According to Israel National News:
[Hat-tip to discarded lies]
The Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections will no doubt influence the Israeli elections two months later. Widespread support for PFLP candidates will do nothing to create a climate of trust with Israeli voters. This is exactly the sort of banana-skin that Ariel Sharon's new party could do with avoiding.
N.B. The Palestinian Authority's website still doesn't carry any news about the legislative elections (which I find worrying). There is however a communiqué commending Javier Solano's endorsement of:
According to Israel National News:
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a veteran component of the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization), will be running in January’s Palestinian Authority election under the banner, “Destroy the Zionist Enterprise.”
At the head of the PFLP’s list for the PA parliament is Ahmed Sa’adat, the organization’s chairman, who ordered the assassination of Israeli minister Rehavam Ze’evi in October 2003. Another prominent figure on the list is Mohammed Alrimawi, who led the hit men who shot Ze’evi.
Sa’adat and Alrimawi are supposed to be serving time in a Jericho prison for that assassination. The PA agreed to imprison the two men under pressure from the United States and Great Britain.
[Hat-tip to discarded lies]
The Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections will no doubt influence the Israeli elections two months later. Widespread support for PFLP candidates will do nothing to create a climate of trust with Israeli voters. This is exactly the sort of banana-skin that Ariel Sharon's new party could do with avoiding.
N.B. The Palestinian Authority's website still doesn't carry any news about the legislative elections (which I find worrying). There is however a communiqué commending Javier Solano's endorsement of:
the Palestinian people's right to end Israeli military occupation "peacefully".
Sharon's new party has momentum
Interesting analysis of the Israeli election by Emanuele Ottolenghi over at Oxblog.
The signing up by Ariel Sharon of Shimon Peres is a coup, and its timing suggests that a well-focussed campaign strategy is revving up nicely. Kadima has a nicely defined political niche (right of centre between Likud and Labour), the two best known living Israeli politicians, and yet can present itself as a "kick them out!" alternative.
However, the one worry for the new party is the length of time until polling day: March 28 2006. A lot can go wrong between now and then and a new party doesn't have the tribal bedrock vote (yet!) to back the party through thick and thin.
Over to Likud...
The signing up by Ariel Sharon of Shimon Peres is a coup, and its timing suggests that a well-focussed campaign strategy is revving up nicely. Kadima has a nicely defined political niche (right of centre between Likud and Labour), the two best known living Israeli politicians, and yet can present itself as a "kick them out!" alternative.
However, the one worry for the new party is the length of time until polling day: March 28 2006. A lot can go wrong between now and then and a new party doesn't have the tribal bedrock vote (yet!) to back the party through thick and thin.
Over to Likud...
Kazakh Presidential election results show lack of choice
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (O.C.S.E.) has welcomed improvements in the organisation of elections in Kazakhstan, which has resulted in the landslide re-election of President Nursultan Nazarbaev with over 90% of votes cast.
The OCSE press statement goes on to criticise the lack of pluralism in the Central Asian Republic:
The B.B.C. reported the story negatively here.
The results were broadly expected, as illustrated by this poll published on Friday by Intermedia.
The problems of taking the polling and election figures at face value are the usual suspicion of electronic voting systems and the degree to which opinion poll respondents consider themselves free to express dissident views. Whatever reservations one may have on this issue, this was no Ukrainian fraud.
The OCSE press statement goes on to criticise the lack of pluralism in the Central Asian Republic:
OSCE Chairman-in-Office Dimitrij Rupel said the findings pointed to a continued need to open up the political life in Kazakhstan, in order to allow meaningful competition among candidates and political parties.
The Slovenian Foreign Minister, who is hosting the OSCE Ministerial Council in Ljubljana, said that the international observers had also acknowledged positive developments where they occurred.
"Sustained efforts are necessary, however, to bring about a situation where OSCE commitments on democratic elections and accountable governance are truly met" he added.
The B.B.C. reported the story negatively here.
Main opposition candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, who secured just 6.64% of the vote according to official results, alleged there had been "multiple violations".
"We will take all legal measures to protest the official results of the voting and will press for this election to be declared invalid," Mr Tuyakbai said on Monday.
"The authoritarian regime of Nazarbayev is taking a totalitarian turn," he said.
The results were broadly expected, as illustrated by this poll published on Friday by Intermedia.
The problems of taking the polling and election figures at face value are the usual suspicion of electronic voting systems and the degree to which opinion poll respondents consider themselves free to express dissident views. Whatever reservations one may have on this issue, this was no Ukrainian fraud.
12/02/2005
Canadian Election Vote Predictor
Hill and Knowlton have set up an election predictor for the Canadian election on 23 January 2006.
[hat tip markrite]
[hat tip markrite]
12/01/2005
Democrats toying with primary timetable
Democratic party activists are pushing to change the order of the US primaries (the demographics of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary don't represent the party's base).
However, as this posting on MyDD shows, the process is not straightforward. For starters the State of New Hampshire has a law that requires it to hold the first full primary of election year.
For what it's worth, I think the parties should decide the order they want to hold their primaries. But there is a danger that the U.S. Democratic Party is "fighting the last war" - again. Howard Dean's failure in 2004 to compete in either Iowa or New Hampshire killed his chances of winning the Democratic nomination. In event, I can see no basis for the belief that he would have got more votes than Senator John Kerry did. And if anything, a Howard Dean candidacy would have guaranteed that all the Republicans who came out to back President George W. Bush's re-election, were prepared to stand in queues for hours to vote.
However, as this posting on MyDD shows, the process is not straightforward. For starters the State of New Hampshire has a law that requires it to hold the first full primary of election year.
For what it's worth, I think the parties should decide the order they want to hold their primaries. But there is a danger that the U.S. Democratic Party is "fighting the last war" - again. Howard Dean's failure in 2004 to compete in either Iowa or New Hampshire killed his chances of winning the Democratic nomination. In event, I can see no basis for the belief that he would have got more votes than Senator John Kerry did. And if anything, a Howard Dean candidacy would have guaranteed that all the Republicans who came out to back President George W. Bush's re-election, were prepared to stand in queues for hours to vote.
Egyptian elections draw to a messy close
Opposition parties in Egypt are complaining about excessive police intimidation today at polling stations, according to a Reuters report.
Another round of voting is expected next Wednesday (7 December) in those seats where no candidate has secured a majority.
Update: Report of fatal shooting here.
Another round of voting is expected next Wednesday (7 December) in those seats where no candidate has secured a majority.
Update: Report of fatal shooting here.
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