Hillary Clinton remains the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. presidential election in 2008. If she doesn't get the nod, my consistent guess has been that Mark Warner, the Virginia Governor who stood down with over 80% approval ratings in a broadly Republican state is the best pick.
Here, My DD publishes a somewhat glowing plug for Mr Warner.
Warner has been tracking a clear second place for several months now. Unlike John Edwards, who stood down as Senator in North Carolina (to avoid getting beaten in 2004), I would expect Warner to be an asset in the South.
There are solid (if only in terms of national name-recognition) and well-funded alternatives: John Kerry and Al Gore immediately spring to mind. Anyone offering good odds that Mark Warner will not get either the President or Vice-President nomination should be taken on.
5/28/2006
Moment of glory
Ok so it was over a month ago, but I made top billing on Pyjamas Media. And the hit-counter went beserk.
I still think the Democrats won't win either House in Congress this autumn, although the Republicans seem to be helping them as far as humanly possible.
I still think the Democrats won't win either House in Congress this autumn, although the Republicans seem to be helping them as far as humanly possible.
Do the Rights Brothers have it right for George Bush?
You can be sure that there isn't a British rock band that is technically as good as this, nor that has such a pro-Bush, pro-Blair line. The camera work on the video seems better than amateurish too.
The Right Brothers project the U.S.A. more accurately than the MSM (now there's a surprise). It's a safe bet that anyone with brains on the Al Qaeda payroll sees the U.S. economy doing a lot better and the U.S. military as more effective than Reuters or the AP do. It's probably fair to say that among Al Quaeda operatives, stories of U.S. military atrocities and torture (to the extent that they are real) do not come across as a sign of moral weakness.
Interesting times...
The Right Brothers project the U.S.A. more accurately than the MSM (now there's a surprise). It's a safe bet that anyone with brains on the Al Qaeda payroll sees the U.S. economy doing a lot better and the U.S. military as more effective than Reuters or the AP do. It's probably fair to say that among Al Quaeda operatives, stories of U.S. military atrocities and torture (to the extent that they are real) do not come across as a sign of moral weakness.
Interesting times...
5/27/2006
Back in business
I've had a few interruptions lately, but normal service is resuming, as I sift through the 250 odd saved clippings in my Newsgator account.
I'm looking at some upgrades to my Blogger account, as well as whether to have a feed of my selected news stories in the side bar.
The upgrades I'm after include:
1) categories;
2) a custom skin;
3) technorati taglines (maybe using del.icio.us);
4) more outward links;
5) maps and charts;
6) feed of relevant stories;
7) links to my podcasts;
8) various security features.
"Further updates as we receive them."
I'm looking at some upgrades to my Blogger account, as well as whether to have a feed of my selected news stories in the side bar.
The upgrades I'm after include:
1) categories;
2) a custom skin;
3) technorati taglines (maybe using del.icio.us);
4) more outward links;
5) maps and charts;
6) feed of relevant stories;
7) links to my podcasts;
8) various security features.
"Further updates as we receive them."
4/24/2006
Nepal: Communists winning
The King of Nepal has agreed to the primary demand of the united opposition, that includes political parties and the Maoist terrorist who struck today. The restoration of the lower is no doubt calculated to split the parties into those that will be satisfied with moderate demands and those that will will want to turn Nepal into the new Cambodia.
If previous revolutions are any guide, the King should either get the hell out now, or strike very hard against the Maoists. Louis XV or Napoleon would fire grape shot into the crowds and survive, Louis XVI would order his troops not to shoot and watch them get torn to pieces before he eventually was executed in public and his family tortured and killed.
Elections don't work when one side promises to exterminate the losers and the only rational course is to stop the election. It's bad and may not improve for some time.
If previous revolutions are any guide, the King should either get the hell out now, or strike very hard against the Maoists. Louis XV or Napoleon would fire grape shot into the crowds and survive, Louis XVI would order his troops not to shoot and watch them get torn to pieces before he eventually was executed in public and his family tortured and killed.
Elections don't work when one side promises to exterminate the losers and the only rational course is to stop the election. It's bad and may not improve for some time.
4/13/2006
The most feared words in politics: Move On says, "We're here to help"
Move On helped Francine Busby in the California special election for the 50th congressional district, which is in San Diego County.
Guess what? She failed to hit 50% on a low turnout. I'd love to see the scripts they use for tele-canvassing.
I can see the Democrats winning in June, only to lose in November, but there are too many imponderables at the moment to give a serious forecast.
[Hat tip Daily Kos]
Guess what? She failed to hit 50% on a low turnout. I'd love to see the scripts they use for tele-canvassing.
I can see the Democrats winning in June, only to lose in November, but there are too many imponderables at the moment to give a serious forecast.
[Hat tip Daily Kos]
Podcasts and milestones
Exciting week: I've crashed through the 6,000 hits and 4,000 visits yesterday. It seems like only last week I was crowing about 5,000 hits (yes I know, Daily Kos gets that every hour or so).
Brian Micklethwait has uploaded the first two Election Watch podcasts.
Podcast #1.
Podcast #2.
Brian Micklethwait has uploaded the first two Election Watch podcasts.
Podcast #1.
Podcast #2.
Democrats will not win U.S. House of Representatives
I would bet my shirt on this now. It would take a massive terrorist attack, the assassination of Ted Kennedy, George W. Bush (or a close relative) caught in bed with a dead child, the accidental introduction of total gun control by the Republicans in the Senate, or four million illegal immigrants given the vote (and they all vote Democrat in the right districts).
If Francine Busby, despite all the blogging efforts of the pro-Democrat left, couldn't win outright the 50th Congressional District of California - covering San Diego County - her party will not win the 11-15 seats its needs to gain nationally to take back the lower house after six consecutive general election defeats. Daily Kos is unhappy about turnout. So they should be: 36.19% should have been low enough to give the Democrats a chance of an upset victory, clearly not enough angry San Diego voters.
A classic example of failing to manage expectations on the part of MyDD (but then they make Pangloss seem like Cassandra).
In fairness to Mrs Busby, the run-off on June 6 coincides with the Republican primary for the seat's re-election in November.
Confused? In plain English it means that the 13 losing Republican candidates will not be able to campaign to be elected Congressman in June, but they can campaign to be the Republican candidate for Congressman in November. Voters on June 6 will have two votes, one for Congressman today and another for Republican candidate in five months. If that doesn't split the Republican vote, nothing will. Expect the Republican Party's National Committee to try and broker an uncontested primary on June 6. Expect it to fail.
I said it last year (see below), the best chance for the Democrats in 2006 is to pick off the governors. New York, California, Florida and Texas are all up for grabs and all in Republican hands. If the Democrats can capture three of these they should be very satisfied. Forget about the House of Representatives, forget about winning control of the Senate (another fantasy).
Where the Democrats can do real damage is in taking on potential Republican candidates for the presidency. John McCain may be the front-runner, but not decisively so.
If Francine Busby, despite all the blogging efforts of the pro-Democrat left, couldn't win outright the 50th Congressional District of California - covering San Diego County - her party will not win the 11-15 seats its needs to gain nationally to take back the lower house after six consecutive general election defeats. Daily Kos is unhappy about turnout. So they should be: 36.19% should have been low enough to give the Democrats a chance of an upset victory, clearly not enough angry San Diego voters.
A classic example of failing to manage expectations on the part of MyDD (but then they make Pangloss seem like Cassandra).
In fairness to Mrs Busby, the run-off on June 6 coincides with the Republican primary for the seat's re-election in November.
Confused? In plain English it means that the 13 losing Republican candidates will not be able to campaign to be elected Congressman in June, but they can campaign to be the Republican candidate for Congressman in November. Voters on June 6 will have two votes, one for Congressman today and another for Republican candidate in five months. If that doesn't split the Republican vote, nothing will. Expect the Republican Party's National Committee to try and broker an uncontested primary on June 6. Expect it to fail.
I said it last year (see below), the best chance for the Democrats in 2006 is to pick off the governors. New York, California, Florida and Texas are all up for grabs and all in Republican hands. If the Democrats can capture three of these they should be very satisfied. Forget about the House of Representatives, forget about winning control of the Senate (another fantasy).
Where the Democrats can do real damage is in taking on potential Republican candidates for the presidency. John McCain may be the front-runner, but not decisively so.
At this time, I still think it would be wildly optimistic for the Democrats to win control of either chamber in Congress. But if they keep holding their Governorships, and pick away at the Republican lead in the House of Representatives, they may hang on until 2008, when the Republicans will be defending large numbers of Senate seats, and they have as yet no clear cut presidential candidate.
4/10/2006
Solomon Islands throw out the bums
Solomon Islands: from Reuters [world page doesn't have proper permalinks]
HONIARA (Reuters) - Solomon Islands voters ousted half their parliament in the first election since peacekeepers restored law and order in the South Pacific nation three years ago, officials said on Monday, announcing final poll results.
Prime Minister Sir Alan Kemakeza won his seat in last Wednesday's national election but will now have to lobby with winning candidates to form a coalition government ahead of a secret parliamentary ballot for prime minister on April 18.
A government spokesman said many of Kemakeza's elected People's Alliance Party (PAP) candidates have since deserted his party.
"Its difficult to tell how many PAP candidates have been elected as many stood as PAP and have now joined other parties," spokesman Alfred Maesulia told Reuters.
A total of 453 candidates from 13 parties contested 50 seats in an election dominated by government corruption, after several ministers were arrested on corruption charges in the past year.
The Solomon Star newspaper said that, based on the candidates' listings, 18 members of the new parliament are independents.
New parliamentarians will travel to the capital, Honiara, this week, many by boat from far-flung islands, to begin horse-trading to form a new coalition government.
Peru doesn't decide yet
Peruvian tentative results here from the BBC.
One Socialist anti-democrat and the sort of social-democrat who could turn Switzerland into Bolivia in five years, versus a "conservative" woman, whose main selling point is a Socialist woman got elected in Chile recently.
Do you get the feeling I'm not impressed with the breadth of choice on offer?
And there will be a run-off on May 7th.
One Socialist anti-democrat and the sort of social-democrat who could turn Switzerland into Bolivia in five years, versus a "conservative" woman, whose main selling point is a Socialist woman got elected in Chile recently.
Do you get the feeling I'm not impressed with the breadth of choice on offer?
And there will be a run-off on May 7th.
It ain't over till Berlusconi's Mama sings*
First this, this and this ["Clear victory for Prodi according to early polls"]
Then this.
Then this.
And it's not over yet.
Any guesses why I don't rate exit polls? The next time they don't predict the Socialist wins in a tight race, only to underestimate the non-Socialist vote, I'll be interested.
The latest from Reuters [I'll use permalinks when they make them permanent]:
Then this.
Then this.
And it's not over yet.
Any guesses why I don't rate exit polls? The next time they don't predict the Socialist wins in a tight race, only to underestimate the non-Socialist vote, I'll be interested.
The latest from Reuters [I'll use permalinks when they make them permanent]:
ROME (Reuters) - The result of Italy's general election hung in the balance on Monday, as one pollster said partial returns suggested Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi might win a shock majority in both houses of parliament.
A second pollster predicted that center-left challenger Romano Prodi would just hold off Berlusconi, leaving the result of the two-day vote on a knife-edge.
Exit polls at the end of the two-day ballot said Prodi had won the election, taking between 50-54 percent of the vote. But as the count proceeded, Nexus pollsters said the center-right was advancing and could eventually end up the winner.
Center-left leaders reacted with dismay and disbelief as the polls changed direction, revealing a country split in two after five years of Berlusconi government.
4/09/2006
I love Norway
The country was supposed to become poor because it was outside the E.U.. Nope.
The country was supposed to join the E.U.. Nope (three times I think).
Now, the Progress Party is teaching Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard and Hans Hermann Hoppe to its aspiring candidates. That's the sort of progressives I could vote for!
The country was supposed to join the E.U.. Nope (three times I think).
Now, the Progress Party is teaching Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard and Hans Hermann Hoppe to its aspiring candidates. That's the sort of progressives I could vote for!
Bad choices in Hungary
I trained Hungarian politicians in Slovakia back in 1991-1992. I got some insight into the FIDESZ party then. [If I have time someday, I'll put down what happened on the day of the anti-Gorbachev coup-d'état in August 1991.]
Today's election is portrayed as a Socialist/free market alliance versus conservative nationalists.
I really don't have time for a coalition with politicians who were complicit in the Soviet era. However, my guess is that the good guys have lined up with the Socialists, so economically we want them to win.
Expect bad relations with neighbouring countries if FIDESZ wins, especially Romania and Slovakia.
Today's election is portrayed as a Socialist/free market alliance versus conservative nationalists.
I really don't have time for a coalition with politicians who were complicit in the Soviet era. However, my guess is that the good guys have lined up with the Socialists, so economically we want them to win.
Expect bad relations with neighbouring countries if FIDESZ wins, especially Romania and Slovakia.
Other U.S.A. round-up
Matt Stoller's dreaming of a Democrat majority in November over at DD.
French proverb: "Il ne faut pas prendre ses désirs pour des réalités."
Will New Orleans voters kick out their mayor? They should, the guy turned down help to evacuate the city before Hurricane Katrina. I'm not sure if having the exiles vote helps him or not.
OK, My DD predicts a Democrat landslide, and then it reports this.
Electronic voting is not quite worth as much as the paper it is written on, says the former CEO. Trust the government to buy a computer? I don't.
The auditors at the GAO look at military and overseas votes here.
Busy time on the highways between Washington D.C. and New Hampshire and Iowa.
Unless someone can fool youngsters into thinking that Bushitler is up for re-election this, expect them to find something more interesting to do in November.
Michelle Malkin has this on the racist-cops-butted-my-fist-with-their-torsos incident, aka Congresswoman McKinney had another strop. [I think she's a Karl Rove spy, who's job is to undermine Democratic Party press coverage over their excellent policy launch last week. Hope, he's paying you good, lady!]
Heartland Institute Citizen's Guide to Conservative Organisations. If there's a Liberal equivalent, please let me know so I can post it.
Ohio: a congressional election for November has already attracted national Republican campaign spending. This is attack money against a Democrat incumbent. Unless you're bluffing, you don't spend this sort of money this early, unless you think you have a chance of gaining seats.
French proverb: "Il ne faut pas prendre ses désirs pour des réalités."
Will New Orleans voters kick out their mayor? They should, the guy turned down help to evacuate the city before Hurricane Katrina. I'm not sure if having the exiles vote helps him or not.
OK, My DD predicts a Democrat landslide, and then it reports this.
Electronic voting is not quite worth as much as the paper it is written on, says the former CEO. Trust the government to buy a computer? I don't.
The auditors at the GAO look at military and overseas votes here.
Busy time on the highways between Washington D.C. and New Hampshire and Iowa.
Unless someone can fool youngsters into thinking that Bushitler is up for re-election this, expect them to find something more interesting to do in November.
Michelle Malkin has this on the racist-cops-butted-my-fist-with-their-torsos incident, aka Congresswoman McKinney had another strop. [I think she's a Karl Rove spy, who's job is to undermine Democratic Party press coverage over their excellent policy launch last week. Hope, he's paying you good, lady!]
Heartland Institute Citizen's Guide to Conservative Organisations. If there's a Liberal equivalent, please let me know so I can post it.
Ohio: a congressional election for November has already attracted national Republican campaign spending. This is attack money against a Democrat incumbent. Unless you're bluffing, you don't spend this sort of money this early, unless you think you have a chance of gaining seats.
Tom DeLay: Drama Queen
Tom DeLay's decision on the 4th of April to announce that he will not stand for re-election risks giving Democrats in California a fillip days before a crucial vote.
It may have given DeLay plenty of coverage (the news outlets wanted to cover the story in the run-up to a potential Democrat "anti-corruption" victory in San Diego), but it is stupid party politics. Didn't anyone tell the outgoing Leader of the Republicans in the House of Representatives that you make these announcements after the polls have closed, preferably during the holidays when most of the reporters are on skiing resorts or whatever?
Hint: doing what your political opponents want you to do, when they want you to do it, is probably bad.
Good riddance, if this is an example of DeLay's strategy.
It may have given DeLay plenty of coverage (the news outlets wanted to cover the story in the run-up to a potential Democrat "anti-corruption" victory in San Diego), but it is stupid party politics. Didn't anyone tell the outgoing Leader of the Republicans in the House of Representatives that you make these announcements after the polls have closed, preferably during the holidays when most of the reporters are on skiing resorts or whatever?
Hint: doing what your political opponents want you to do, when they want you to do it, is probably bad.
Good riddance, if this is an example of DeLay's strategy.
CA-50 special election news
My final verdict: low turnout, Democrats might squeak 50%. High turnout, wait for the run-off on Tuesday June 6. (And no, I haven't a clue who the top Republican will be.)
With 48 hours to go, the Democrats are talking up their chances of winning the San Diego County election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
I've written about this previously, here and here.
In addition to whipping up enthusiasm, Daily Kos and others have been taking on the Republican candidates, and with some success.
The amount of money raised is unusual, according to Federal Election Commission returns. But I'd say all sides should throw everything at this. If the Democrats can win, they can boast an "anti-corruption crusade" and try to carry this into the November elections. If the Republicans hold on, it will help with the recent jitters. (Frankly I consider Tom DeLay a vastly over-rated party strategist if he thinks standing down within a week of this election is a clever move. The correct decision was to either go last November, or hang on until later this week. Sorry, but for all the money in U.S. elective politics, I'm seriously under-impressed with the strategic thinking, on both sides.)
The money becomes the issue.
With 48 hours to go, the Democrats are talking up their chances of winning the San Diego County election to the U.S. House of Representatives.
I've written about this previously, here and here.
In addition to whipping up enthusiasm, Daily Kos and others have been taking on the Republican candidates, and with some success.
The amount of money raised is unusual, according to Federal Election Commission returns. But I'd say all sides should throw everything at this. If the Democrats can win, they can boast an "anti-corruption crusade" and try to carry this into the November elections. If the Republicans hold on, it will help with the recent jitters. (Frankly I consider Tom DeLay a vastly over-rated party strategist if he thinks standing down within a week of this election is a clever move. The correct decision was to either go last November, or hang on until later this week. Sorry, but for all the money in U.S. elective politics, I'm seriously under-impressed with the strategic thinking, on both sides.)
The money becomes the issue.
Every little helps
With negotiations on-going to form a government in Israel, I guess this is helpful.
Final count [adapted from BBC]:
1. Kadima: 29 seats, "centrist"
2. Labour: 20 seats, centre-left
Possible partners
3. Shas: 12 seats, ultra-Orthodox
4. Pensioners: 7 seats, single-issue
5. Torah Judaism: 6 seats, ultra-Orthodox
6. Meretz: 5 seats, left-wing
Unlikely partners:
7. Israel Beitenu: 11 seats, Russian emigres, far-right
8. Likud: 12 seats, right-wing
9. Arab parties: 9 seats
10. National Union/Religious: 9 seats, far-right, settlers
Majority: 61.
Final count [adapted from BBC]:
1. Kadima: 29 seats, "centrist"
2. Labour: 20 seats, centre-left
Possible partners
3. Shas: 12 seats, ultra-Orthodox
4. Pensioners: 7 seats, single-issue
5. Torah Judaism: 6 seats, ultra-Orthodox
6. Meretz: 5 seats, left-wing
Unlikely partners:
7. Israel Beitenu: 11 seats, Russian emigres, far-right
8. Likud: 12 seats, right-wing
9. Arab parties: 9 seats
10. National Union/Religious: 9 seats, far-right, settlers
Majority: 61.
Zapatero loves Apartheid!
So much for Spanish Socialists being in favour of democracy and against racism: they want to prevent people living in Gibraltar from voting in the U.K.'s European elections on the grounds that they are from Pakistan, Nigeria or India.
Note: the U.K. allows citizens from all Commonwealth countries the right to vote in U.K. elections. Gibraltar is part of the South West England constituency, so the Spanish/E.U. ruling would create an apartheid electoral system based on race in part of the U.K.. I'd love to see how advocating that fits in with anti-racism laws.
Let's hear it now: "Zapatero loves Apartheid!"
Note: the U.K. allows citizens from all Commonwealth countries the right to vote in U.K. elections. Gibraltar is part of the South West England constituency, so the Spanish/E.U. ruling would create an apartheid electoral system based on race in part of the U.K.. I'd love to see how advocating that fits in with anti-racism laws.
Let's hear it now: "Zapatero loves Apartheid!"
Close in Italy: a shame they can't both lose
If the foreign commentators had anything to do with it, Italy's election today and tomorrow would be a shoo-in for the Socialist-Communist-fellow-traveller coalition. Silvio Berlusconi was taken ill during the long campaign and the almost universal view is that he came off worst in all the television debates. In Sicily, he was denounced as an unwitting tool of the Mafia, elsewhere he was described as a crook, a loon and an American stooge.
Berlusconi also upset his opponents when he suggested that Italians aren't big enough "pricks" to vote Socialist.
And yet the man may win.
To the extent that a Berlusconi triumph will put all the people in London, who swallowed the wasp over George W. Bush's re-election in 2004, into a hissy-fit, I'm hoping for the narrowest win possible. But I'm not expecting it.
If Berlusconi wins, it will be because he's had some luck in the last few days.
1) Abdul Rahman. The report in Le Figaro [in French here] rightly call the issue a "blessing" for Mr Berlusconi. The Christian vote may be less than a majority, but it is hard to imagine what Mr Berlusconi could have done to shore up the church-going vote at cheaper cost. What are the leftists supposed to do? Not much it seems.
2) Abortion. These days the abortion-haters and the abortion-lovers are both minorities. But the pro-abortion types either voted left-wing already, or can't be bothered to vote (it's not cool). Net effect, condemning the excesses of abortion pays off for a non-leftist party.
3) Berlusconi=global player vs. Prodi=euro-fixer. I know people who voted against John Major in 1997 because his haircut was rubbish compared with Tony Blair's. The man knows how to dress and how to sit next to the U.S. President without looking out of place. If style loses votes, Mr Romano Prodi is doomed.
4) An attempt to "do a Madrid" was foiled by the Italian security forces. I've seen very little coverage of this incident. But it is hard imagine how it helps the left to be the party Al Quaeda wants to win.
On the other hand, Mr Berlusconi is facing another round of investigations over criminal activities (although nothing serious enough for the British Labour Party to refuse taking money for or worry about connecting with).
His support among business leaders is not as solid as it was. Italian expatriates get to vote for the first time, my guess is they're more likely to be moralistic about corruption and pro-E.U.. Anyway, if its a contest between left-wing ballot-rigging and right-wing ballot-stuffing, my money's on the labour unions.
We know which way the U.S. Democratic left is leaning: weird how they 1) deny that they are fellow-travellers of Communism, 2) support a coalition that includes Communists, at every turn (Italy, before that Cambodia, Chile, Cuba, Spain, Venzuela, Vietnam). Sounds like Gulag-denial to me.
For the record. I do not advocate a vote for Forza Italia, it includes some very unsavoury people. "It's a shame they can't both lose."
Berlusconi also upset his opponents when he suggested that Italians aren't big enough "pricks" to vote Socialist.
And yet the man may win.
To the extent that a Berlusconi triumph will put all the people in London, who swallowed the wasp over George W. Bush's re-election in 2004, into a hissy-fit, I'm hoping for the narrowest win possible. But I'm not expecting it.
If Berlusconi wins, it will be because he's had some luck in the last few days.
1) Abdul Rahman. The report in Le Figaro [in French here] rightly call the issue a "blessing" for Mr Berlusconi. The Christian vote may be less than a majority, but it is hard to imagine what Mr Berlusconi could have done to shore up the church-going vote at cheaper cost. What are the leftists supposed to do? Not much it seems.
2) Abortion. These days the abortion-haters and the abortion-lovers are both minorities. But the pro-abortion types either voted left-wing already, or can't be bothered to vote (it's not cool). Net effect, condemning the excesses of abortion pays off for a non-leftist party.
3) Berlusconi=global player vs. Prodi=euro-fixer. I know people who voted against John Major in 1997 because his haircut was rubbish compared with Tony Blair's. The man knows how to dress and how to sit next to the U.S. President without looking out of place. If style loses votes, Mr Romano Prodi is doomed.
4) An attempt to "do a Madrid" was foiled by the Italian security forces. I've seen very little coverage of this incident. But it is hard imagine how it helps the left to be the party Al Quaeda wants to win.
On the other hand, Mr Berlusconi is facing another round of investigations over criminal activities (although nothing serious enough for the British Labour Party to refuse taking money for or worry about connecting with).
His support among business leaders is not as solid as it was. Italian expatriates get to vote for the first time, my guess is they're more likely to be moralistic about corruption and pro-E.U.. Anyway, if its a contest between left-wing ballot-rigging and right-wing ballot-stuffing, my money's on the labour unions.
We know which way the U.S. Democratic left is leaning: weird how they 1) deny that they are fellow-travellers of Communism, 2) support a coalition that includes Communists, at every turn (Italy, before that Cambodia, Chile, Cuba, Spain, Venzuela, Vietnam). Sounds like Gulag-denial to me.
For the record. I do not advocate a vote for Forza Italia, it includes some very unsavoury people. "It's a shame they can't both lose."
Big week
Elections today in Hungary and Peru.
Monday: two days of voting in Italy end.
Tuesday: special election in San Diego, California for the 50th Congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
All of these elections are forecast to be close, with the Californian election a race for Democrat Party candidate Francine Busby to get the 50% of the total vote in order to avoid a run-off against the highest-scoring of 14 Republican contenders, where she would normally be expected to lose.
And last week we had the first election in Kuwait that allowed women voters.
Action posted today from Norway, the U.S.A., Israel, Gibraltar, the U.K., Japan and Singapore. Afghanistan gets a mention.
And today is Liberation Day in Iraq.
Monday: two days of voting in Italy end.
Tuesday: special election in San Diego, California for the 50th Congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
All of these elections are forecast to be close, with the Californian election a race for Democrat Party candidate Francine Busby to get the 50% of the total vote in order to avoid a run-off against the highest-scoring of 14 Republican contenders, where she would normally be expected to lose.
And last week we had the first election in Kuwait that allowed women voters.
Action posted today from Norway, the U.S.A., Israel, Gibraltar, the U.K., Japan and Singapore. Afghanistan gets a mention.
And today is Liberation Day in Iraq.
4/04/2006
Sickness and health
I've had to slow down on the postings for the past few days, what with the Chris Tame funeral, my going down with gastric 'flu and the domestic upheavals involved.
However, tonight I shall be visiting Brian Micklethwait where we shall experiment with poscasting. Being absolute newbies I have no idea if, how long, or even on which site the result will appear.
I intend to cover last week's Israeli elections and next Tuesday's special election in California's 50th congressional district (San Diego county).
UPDATE. The recording went well. We covered Israel and Thailand but didn't touch on California's election. We're working on keeping the format tight so that podcasts don't last longer than 15-20 minutes. Though the more I think about it probably 5-10 minutes is better.
However, tonight I shall be visiting Brian Micklethwait where we shall experiment with poscasting. Being absolute newbies I have no idea if, how long, or even on which site the result will appear.
I intend to cover last week's Israeli elections and next Tuesday's special election in California's 50th congressional district (San Diego county).
UPDATE. The recording went well. We covered Israel and Thailand but didn't touch on California's election. We're working on keeping the format tight so that podcasts don't last longer than 15-20 minutes. Though the more I think about it probably 5-10 minutes is better.
3/30/2006
These guys lose money when they're wrong
Tradesports is a gambling website. I've never placed a bet there, but I often look them up when assessing who's going to win an election. Unlike pollsters, the bookies lose when they get their spread betting odds wrong.
As of tonight, here's what they have to say about the Senate elections in November. Of the 33 Senate seats up for election, 25 are safe for the incumbent party. If we assume the Democrats hold all their narrow leads, win all their narrow leads, and take the ones where the Republicans have a reasonable but not overwhelming lead, and they get Vermont (independent), we get the following result.
Democrats 50
Republicans 50
So the Republicans would hold on by the Vice-President's casting vote. This isn't going to happen. For a start, I expect some of the races currently rated as safe to become closer. The bookies think the overall chances of the Republicans holding on are over 75%.
For the House of Representatives there is only a global bet on offer: here the Republicans are trading at about 56.5%.
For the governors' elections we find four Democrat gains and four close calls, all Republican held. If they all went Democrat we get:
Democrats 30
Republicans 20
Now that's more interesting. Same reservations as for Senators, of course.
I haven't yet made my mind up about these election races.
As of tonight, here's what they have to say about the Senate elections in November. Of the 33 Senate seats up for election, 25 are safe for the incumbent party. If we assume the Democrats hold all their narrow leads, win all their narrow leads, and take the ones where the Republicans have a reasonable but not overwhelming lead, and they get Vermont (independent), we get the following result.
Democrats 50
Republicans 50
So the Republicans would hold on by the Vice-President's casting vote. This isn't going to happen. For a start, I expect some of the races currently rated as safe to become closer. The bookies think the overall chances of the Republicans holding on are over 75%.
For the House of Representatives there is only a global bet on offer: here the Republicans are trading at about 56.5%.
For the governors' elections we find four Democrat gains and four close calls, all Republican held. If they all went Democrat we get:
Democrats 30
Republicans 20
Now that's more interesting. Same reservations as for Senators, of course.
I haven't yet made my mind up about these election races.
Get down to San Diego!
I wrote about the Congressional Election in the 50 district of California here some time ago.
I think this is exactly the sort of election the Democrats have to take seriously.
It may be that the Republicans will hold this seat, but the least you can say is that Francine Busby is giving them a tough time. Only caveat, Governor Schwarzenegger's poll scores seem to have picked up a little.
Instead of dreaming about indicting yesterday's opponents or boasting of implausible electoral successes more than 200 days from now, if I were in the U.S., I'd be on the battle bus to San Diego, whichever side I was on.
Here's the message I'd be putting out if I was working the Democratic National Committee:
Unusually for a two-round election, in California the leading candidates of all the parties in the first round go through to the second round, instead of the more commonly used method of taking the top two candidates only.
So far, so good for Republicans. The problem lies in the announcement this week that Republican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham has resigned his seat in Congress following his guilty plea on charges of bribery, tax evasion, mail fraud and wire fraud. He was first elected to Congress in 1990 and was serving his eighth term as a member of the House of Representatives. The Congressional seat in question is the 50th district of California, which covers the County of San Diego.
As these elections returns show from 2004, there is a sizeable Democratic vote in San Diego. If one in five Republican voters stays at home in disgust with "Duke's" ethical performance, the Democrats have a chance of picking up a seat they would otherwise not really compete for. In 2004, the presidential election would tend to have encouraged Republicans to come out and vote, whilst the comparative safety of California as a Democrat stronghold (in presidential elections at least) might have made some of their voters complacent.
Normally, I'd say that a campaign push by the Governor or even the President would be useful. However, apart from helping with fundraisers, neither Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger nor President George W. Bush would necessarily be a positive influence on this election. The recent presidential effort in Virginia for instance did raise a lot of money but failed to change the outcome. In fact, even hosting lavish fundraisers might cause a problem, given the circumstances in which this election has been provoked.
I think this is exactly the sort of election the Democrats have to take seriously.
It may be that the Republicans will hold this seat, but the least you can say is that Francine Busby is giving them a tough time. Only caveat, Governor Schwarzenegger's poll scores seem to have picked up a little.
Instead of dreaming about indicting yesterday's opponents or boasting of implausible electoral successes more than 200 days from now, if I were in the U.S., I'd be on the battle bus to San Diego, whichever side I was on.
Here's the message I'd be putting out if I was working the Democratic National Committee:
At this time, I still think it would be wildly optimistic for the Democrats to win control of either chamber in Congress. But if they keep holding their Governorships, and pick away at the Republican lead in the House of Representatives, they may hang on until 2008, when the Republicans will be defending large numbers of Senate seats, and they have as yet no clear cut presidential candidate.
The case for North Korea or have you seen those voting machines work?
First, I want you to imagine the worst experience you've ever had with computers.
Maybe:
- your bankcard got swallowed because the keypad on the cash machine had a dodgy button, which repeated the number "5" twice when you pressed it once;
- you rang to pay a bill and the transaction failed because the guys on the other end's computer system was down;
- your internet connection broke down for a month;
- you sat at work for hours waiting to find out if the work you were doing was destroyed when someone messed around with a server;
- your identity was stolen, or the police thought you were the dangerous child killer that jumped bail.
Then, consider this report about British government websites. I could have picked any number of this, but this one was the first one I saw today.
Is it really surprising that this and this happen?
All the election law you'll ever need:
1. Print a piece of paper. List the candidates in alphabetical order. Give voters a pencil and ask them to mark a "X" next to the candidate they want. Sort them by hand in front of scrutineers from all the parties. Count first by hand. Bundle papers into batches of 50. Two people check each batch to see that no votes in the wrong pile. Then run through a machine like banks use for counting banknotes. If there's a discrepancy re-check twice. Automatic recount if a candidate reuests it when the gap is narrow (to win, for a place, or to hold a deposit or secure automatic registration next time).
2. Don't start counting until all polling stations have closed. That means Alaska in the USA, too bad for New Hampshire. Don't allow exit polling if the results are going to be broadcast before all polling stations close. Again that means Alaska in the USA, too bad for whichever party thinks it got the women's vote out on the East coast. Don't allow postal ballots after polling day, unless there's a postal strike. Some post offices are lazy about enforcing wrongly dated franked envelopes, or they smudge. Tough.
3. Don't allow anyone to vote outside their voting area, expect by post. Don't allow anyone to register after the election has been called (say at least a month before the vote). Don't change the voting qualification, or the allocation of electoral college votes, or the location of polling stations (barring natural catastrophe)less than a year before an election.
That's it. Any fraud will be easier to spot, and the public will have better grounds for trusting the mechanics of the election.
Maybe:
- your bankcard got swallowed because the keypad on the cash machine had a dodgy button, which repeated the number "5" twice when you pressed it once;
- you rang to pay a bill and the transaction failed because the guys on the other end's computer system was down;
- your internet connection broke down for a month;
- you sat at work for hours waiting to find out if the work you were doing was destroyed when someone messed around with a server;
- your identity was stolen, or the police thought you were the dangerous child killer that jumped bail.
Then, consider this report about British government websites. I could have picked any number of this, but this one was the first one I saw today.
Is it really surprising that this and this happen?
All the election law you'll ever need:
1. Print a piece of paper. List the candidates in alphabetical order. Give voters a pencil and ask them to mark a "X" next to the candidate they want. Sort them by hand in front of scrutineers from all the parties. Count first by hand. Bundle papers into batches of 50. Two people check each batch to see that no votes in the wrong pile. Then run through a machine like banks use for counting banknotes. If there's a discrepancy re-check twice. Automatic recount if a candidate reuests it when the gap is narrow (to win, for a place, or to hold a deposit or secure automatic registration next time).
2. Don't start counting until all polling stations have closed. That means Alaska in the USA, too bad for New Hampshire. Don't allow exit polling if the results are going to be broadcast before all polling stations close. Again that means Alaska in the USA, too bad for whichever party thinks it got the women's vote out on the East coast. Don't allow postal ballots after polling day, unless there's a postal strike. Some post offices are lazy about enforcing wrongly dated franked envelopes, or they smudge. Tough.
3. Don't allow anyone to vote outside their voting area, expect by post. Don't allow anyone to register after the election has been called (say at least a month before the vote). Don't change the voting qualification, or the allocation of electoral college votes, or the location of polling stations (barring natural catastrophe)less than a year before an election.
That's it. Any fraud will be easier to spot, and the public will have better grounds for trusting the mechanics of the election.
Italian election: Berlusconi says no multiculturalism, Pope says no secularism
I'm not sure if these ploys will work. If I was trying to get out the secular anti-theocratic vote, I'd want these two press reports (in French).
In brief, Berlusconi having attacked Socialism and Communism as twin mass-murdering ideologies has lumped in multiculturalism as destroying the fabric of Italian society. There are two problems with this argument if it is true. 1) the people who understand are against you already. 2) if it's true, why are you giving another 200,000 passports to illegal immigrants?
As for the Pope, given the realistic choice of Islamic theocracy and secularism, one gets the feeling that he prefers the former. Can't see how that helps Christian democratic politicians.
On a more cheerful note, Berlusconi is frightening currency traders with his rants against the euro.
In brief, Berlusconi having attacked Socialism and Communism as twin mass-murdering ideologies has lumped in multiculturalism as destroying the fabric of Italian society. There are two problems with this argument if it is true. 1) the people who understand are against you already. 2) if it's true, why are you giving another 200,000 passports to illegal immigrants?
As for the Pope, given the realistic choice of Islamic theocracy and secularism, one gets the feeling that he prefers the former. Can't see how that helps Christian democratic politicians.
On a more cheerful note, Berlusconi is frightening currency traders with his rants against the euro.
My mid-term election forecast: no change of control in Congress
A lot can happen between now and polling day, November 7 (222 days away).
If nothing major happened on the international scene to harm the U.S. President's standing even more than it is now, I forecast the following:
House of Representatives: no change of control
Senate: no change of control
Because Democrats persist in talking up their chances, and here, the expected no change is going to look like a huge victory for Republicans. It's all about managing expectations.
The Illinois 6th Congressional District is a case in point. The recent primary election saw the Democratic Party's establishment candidate win with 44% support against a fringe of unfancied chancers. Even diehard Democrats are worried that against a well-funded Republican campaign, it will be harder for their woman to get through. Over at Daily Kos, there are no worries.
Meanwhile, almost unnoticed, what I would have thought was a completely lost cause for Republicans apparently isn't: Arnold Schwarzenegger is at least competitive if not ahead in the Governor's race in California. If Democrats can't win back California, they don't seem too likely to hold onto Iowa, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
With this kind of bad publicity always liable to pop up at the wrong moment, opinion polls that seem incapable of getting a proper population sample, any Democrat poll lead of under ten percent nationally can be routinely ignored at this stage, as can any poll referring to the President, for reasons I've gone into here.
This Daily Kos report from Nebraska and this one (Congressional Quarterly) from Michigan speak volumes about how individual campaigns are going to be turned on local candidates and money.
If nothing major happened on the international scene to harm the U.S. President's standing even more than it is now, I forecast the following:
House of Representatives: no change of control
Senate: no change of control
Because Democrats persist in talking up their chances, and here, the expected no change is going to look like a huge victory for Republicans. It's all about managing expectations.
The Illinois 6th Congressional District is a case in point. The recent primary election saw the Democratic Party's establishment candidate win with 44% support against a fringe of unfancied chancers. Even diehard Democrats are worried that against a well-funded Republican campaign, it will be harder for their woman to get through. Over at Daily Kos, there are no worries.
Meanwhile, almost unnoticed, what I would have thought was a completely lost cause for Republicans apparently isn't: Arnold Schwarzenegger is at least competitive if not ahead in the Governor's race in California. If Democrats can't win back California, they don't seem too likely to hold onto Iowa, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
With this kind of bad publicity always liable to pop up at the wrong moment, opinion polls that seem incapable of getting a proper population sample, any Democrat poll lead of under ten percent nationally can be routinely ignored at this stage, as can any poll referring to the President, for reasons I've gone into here.
This Daily Kos report from Nebraska and this one (Congressional Quarterly) from Michigan speak volumes about how individual campaigns are going to be turned on local candidates and money.
3/28/2006
Kadima, Likud not so good
Exit polls average here.
This BBC page listing the Israeli political parties is useful.
The breakthrough has come from the Russian secular party:
Current projection:
Kadima 29-31
Labor 19-22
Big mover Israel at Home 12-14
Likud 10-12
This BBC page listing the Israeli political parties is useful.
The breakthrough has come from the Russian secular party:
Israel Beitenu (Israel is Our Home) has a constituency among the overwhelmingly secular, largely unassimilated and generally hawkish Russian-speaking population.
It used to operate as part of the National Union, but split over the latter's brief role in one of Mr Sharon's coalitions and has decided to contest these elections separately.
Its programme differs from that of the National Union in that it has been prepared since 2005 to consider the transfer of parts of Israel with large Arab populations to the Palestinian Authority in return for Israeli annexation of large parts of the occupied territories.
It has concentrated in the election campaign on consolidating its Russian-speaking constituency.
Current projection:
Kadima 29-31
Labor 19-22
Big mover Israel at Home 12-14
Likud 10-12
Israeli election: live broadcast and forecast
The Jerusalem Post has video broadcasts today of the election.
The main action will start at 8pm local time (6pm GMT or 1pm EST). With Europe having moved to Summer Daylight Saving Time this week, you may need to check an hour earlier.
Forecast: low turnout expected so the best organized political party wins. I therefore expect Kadima to do slightly worse than expected and Likud to do better. Labour is tricky, because the candidate will alienate many traditional middle-class voters, on the other hand a trade-union backed candidate could do well in a low turnout.
If Kadima gets 37 seats, that's a good result.
If Likud gets more than 14, that's a good result.
If Labour gets more than 20, that's a good result.
That leaves 49 for the other parties. The Green Leaf Party, campaigning for cannabis legalisation, could win a seat.
The main action will start at 8pm local time (6pm GMT or 1pm EST). With Europe having moved to Summer Daylight Saving Time this week, you may need to check an hour earlier.
Forecast: low turnout expected so the best organized political party wins. I therefore expect Kadima to do slightly worse than expected and Likud to do better. Labour is tricky, because the candidate will alienate many traditional middle-class voters, on the other hand a trade-union backed candidate could do well in a low turnout.
If Kadima gets 37 seats, that's a good result.
If Likud gets more than 14, that's a good result.
If Labour gets more than 20, that's a good result.
That leaves 49 for the other parties. The Green Leaf Party, campaigning for cannabis legalisation, could win a seat.
3/27/2006
Easy guess for Paris
OK, so it wasn't the greatest bit of political divining ever: all her opponents pulled out so XVIIth arrondissement mayor Françoise de Panafieu will take on Socialist Bernard Delanoë, in 2007 or 2008, depending on whether the election law changes in time.
My guess is she loses.
My guess is she loses.
Israeli election: my background assessment
The Israeli moderates won't rule out killing the Palestinian Prime Minister designate: Hamas's Ismael Haniya.
What would the "extremists" do, let him live?
I get the feeling that the Kadima is moderate is lazy reporting. They've got people from both Labour and Likud therefore they're in the middle. The truth is that Kadima seems to offer a unilateral settlement to the Palestinian question. Palestinians are basically going to be stuck behind a wall which excludes them from territories that they want back and Kadima is simply going to ignore them. This report in Le Figaro gives details.
As far as I can see this is the same policy that was being denounced six months ago by the European press as "extremist".
Here's a report from the Times that seems to back me up. The Palestinians are going to go ape.
The Guardian has a thorough report, by Linda Grant that includes a heartfelt summary of the Kadima programme:
The opinion polls are meaningless. We're talking the most stupid form of proportional representation ever designed for a country. You basically get half the votes and a quarter of the seats.
Kadima may "win" and end up with half the seats needed to form a majority in the Knesset. See what I mean?
What would the "extremists" do, let him live?
I get the feeling that the Kadima is moderate is lazy reporting. They've got people from both Labour and Likud therefore they're in the middle. The truth is that Kadima seems to offer a unilateral settlement to the Palestinian question. Palestinians are basically going to be stuck behind a wall which excludes them from territories that they want back and Kadima is simply going to ignore them. This report in Le Figaro gives details.
As far as I can see this is the same policy that was being denounced six months ago by the European press as "extremist".
Here's a report from the Times that seems to back me up. The Palestinians are going to go ape.
The Guardian has a thorough report, by Linda Grant that includes a heartfelt summary of the Kadima programme:
"I don't give a shit what the Palestinians don't want. I don't think anything will ever be acceptable to them and I received that message with the results of the last Palestinian elections [in which Hamas were elected]."
Kadima supporter, former Labour
The opinion polls are meaningless. We're talking the most stupid form of proportional representation ever designed for a country. You basically get half the votes and a quarter of the seats.
Kadima may "win" and end up with half the seats needed to form a majority in the Knesset. See what I mean?
UNICEF takes sides in Mexico's election
I've been waiting for someone to react to this disgraceful attempt by UNICEF to interfere in Mexico's presidential elections on July 2 this year.
Here's the UNICEF slogan:
If UNICEF's model for education was not collectivist, it would still be a disgrace. But the global agency effectively wants all private schools abolished, all children to be forced to attend state run indoctrination centres, and parents to have as little choice as possible (forget about home-schooling).
UNICEF is blatantly pushing a socialist agenda in Mexico, the only plausible aim being to swing voters into backing the more socialist candidates. Who pays for this?
Here's the UNICEF slogan:
If your candidate doesn't know how to improve education, elect another candidate. Cast a vote for education!
If UNICEF's model for education was not collectivist, it would still be a disgrace. But the global agency effectively wants all private schools abolished, all children to be forced to attend state run indoctrination centres, and parents to have as little choice as possible (forget about home-schooling).
UNICEF is blatantly pushing a socialist agenda in Mexico, the only plausible aim being to swing voters into backing the more socialist candidates. Who pays for this?
3/26/2006
Election news around the world
Uzbeckistan's opposition leader faces jail for his success. The U.S.A. - allegedly - wants democracy in the region. So the U.S. is backing - tyranny. Confusing message, someone?
Thailand's prime minister calls a snap election. He is the target of a concerted street protest campaign to remove him. Luckily for Liverpool Football Club, Thakin Shinawatra didn't get to become the majority shareholder in the club last year.
Sivino Berlusconi thinks sitting next to George W. Bush will make him look good in the Italian elections. Not sure about this for several reasons. There is historically a strong pro-American vote in Italy, so maybe this could appeal to non-political Italians. If there are any.
The U.S. Republicans start to catch up the massive Democrat fundraising efforts of 2005. Later figures confirm this trend.
Ban on professional canvassers collecting signatures for election candidates. Looks like an attempt to do me out of a career! ;-)
South Dakota passes an abortion ban, designed to test the Supreme Court.
Fraud reform in the U.S.A. It's a partisan issue, which means the people solving the problem are the people causing it. Not a pretty sight.
Thailand's prime minister calls a snap election. He is the target of a concerted street protest campaign to remove him. Luckily for Liverpool Football Club, Thakin Shinawatra didn't get to become the majority shareholder in the club last year.
Sivino Berlusconi thinks sitting next to George W. Bush will make him look good in the Italian elections. Not sure about this for several reasons. There is historically a strong pro-American vote in Italy, so maybe this could appeal to non-political Italians. If there are any.
The U.S. Republicans start to catch up the massive Democrat fundraising efforts of 2005. Later figures confirm this trend.
Ban on professional canvassers collecting signatures for election candidates. Looks like an attempt to do me out of a career! ;-)
South Dakota passes an abortion ban, designed to test the Supreme Court.
Fraud reform in the U.S.A. It's a partisan issue, which means the people solving the problem are the people causing it. Not a pretty sight.
US Democrat comments, rants and intelligent thoughts on the elections this year
This is a monster of a long post from MyDD [Heh, who's talking!] about demographics. The more I read it, the less confident I felt about the Democrats. It seems to me that the dissatisfaction with the President is emotive, but not likely to carry over to his Republican successor.
Hillary Clinton has problems from the left and the right, it seems.
Incoherent with indignation about the South Dakota law outlawing abortion. It's called moving into your enemy's 'killing ground'. I don't advise it.
Eschaton is a really poor Democrat-leaning site for intelligent analysis. The only chance of something good is when they stumble on something like this, and miss the point completely. States (and cities) with massive abortion rates and high taxes (and crime) are not going to see their voting populations grow. Which is why it's smart long-term politics to oppose abortion, high taxes and support vigorous anti-crime measures. (Whether these are the right thing to do is another matter is another point.) Roll the clock forward thirty years and the Democrats as we know them today will no longer exist, unless they change.
At last some sense from MyDD. The governor races. And they twig that winning back California would be "the big prize." You bet it would be. However, if you want an indication of the paucity of Democrat talent: no mention of Florida. Jeb Bush is standing down (restricted by term limits) but the state is not seriously in play.
HELLO! Earth to planet MyDD. You're not going to fight Geroge W. Bush again!
There's nothing like a Democrat blowing off steam to the effect that his own party's candidates are "idiots" to provide the opposition with ammunition.
Kos has some info about evolving media techniques. He reckons the Republicans are ahead of the game. That certainly fits with other analysts like Charlie Cook. However, I think it has more to do with having a less wishful thinking approach to politics. The GOP doesn't assume that churchgoers will vote for them, in the way that Democrats assume that Latinos will vote for them. And they don't publically insult those who act different from their prejudices. If I were a Black American, and I'd studied history and electoral politics, I might not be a Republican, but I sure wouldn't allow a party that boasts a former Ku Klux Klan officer in the U.S. Senate tell me I belong to them.
New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District: if the Democrats can't win here, they won't win back the House of Representatives.
Obsessing about the guy they lost to last time, again.
February forecast from MyDD.
My DD has a revelation: opinion polls overstate Democrat support. They might not be winning the House of Representatives after all this November.
Hillary Clinton has problems from the left and the right, it seems.
Incoherent with indignation about the South Dakota law outlawing abortion. It's called moving into your enemy's 'killing ground'. I don't advise it.
Eschaton is a really poor Democrat-leaning site for intelligent analysis. The only chance of something good is when they stumble on something like this, and miss the point completely. States (and cities) with massive abortion rates and high taxes (and crime) are not going to see their voting populations grow. Which is why it's smart long-term politics to oppose abortion, high taxes and support vigorous anti-crime measures. (Whether these are the right thing to do is another matter is another point.) Roll the clock forward thirty years and the Democrats as we know them today will no longer exist, unless they change.
At last some sense from MyDD. The governor races. And they twig that winning back California would be "the big prize." You bet it would be. However, if you want an indication of the paucity of Democrat talent: no mention of Florida. Jeb Bush is standing down (restricted by term limits) but the state is not seriously in play.
HELLO! Earth to planet MyDD. You're not going to fight Geroge W. Bush again!
There's nothing like a Democrat blowing off steam to the effect that his own party's candidates are "idiots" to provide the opposition with ammunition.
Kos has some info about evolving media techniques. He reckons the Republicans are ahead of the game. That certainly fits with other analysts like Charlie Cook. However, I think it has more to do with having a less wishful thinking approach to politics. The GOP doesn't assume that churchgoers will vote for them, in the way that Democrats assume that Latinos will vote for them. And they don't publically insult those who act different from their prejudices. If I were a Black American, and I'd studied history and electoral politics, I might not be a Republican, but I sure wouldn't allow a party that boasts a former Ku Klux Klan officer in the U.S. Senate tell me I belong to them.
New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District: if the Democrats can't win here, they won't win back the House of Representatives.
Obsessing about the guy they lost to last time, again.
February forecast from MyDD.
My DD has a revelation: opinion polls overstate Democrat support. They might not be winning the House of Representatives after all this November.
3/24/2006
Service interruption
I'm having hardware/software problems right now, so the posting is erratic at the moment.
Chris Tame, a long-standing comrade has just died. Here's the Technorati buzz. Here's what I wrote, and here's the Independent obituary.
He opposed Libertarians contesting elections, especially in the British context, taking the view that they would waste time on personality clashes, trim their views in the search for votes, and they wouldn't get many anyhow.
Chris Tame, a long-standing comrade has just died. Here's the Technorati buzz. Here's what I wrote, and here's the Independent obituary.
He opposed Libertarians contesting elections, especially in the British context, taking the view that they would waste time on personality clashes, trim their views in the search for votes, and they wouldn't get many anyhow.
3/22/2006
World round-up
China: Where does the Vatican find them? After the wonderfully named Cardinal Sin of the Philippines, Cardinal Zen has been sent by Pope Benedict XVI to spread the good word in Hong Kong. The Communist régime is not amused. How un-zen!
Democratic Republic of Congo (ex-Zaire): From the BBC:
Egypt: Condoleeza Rice offers support to Egyptian liberals as a signal to President Mubarrak to allow more opposition.
Italy: Drag-queen candidate Vladimir Luxuria blames "homophobia" for lack of support. The fact that the Times reports her as: "Signora Luxuria is standing for the Refounded Communists." So let me see, she's an apologist for the slaughter of over 100 million people, but she thinks she has an image problem?
Kazakhstan: Currently most attention is focussing on outbreak of avian influenza. However this report of skullduggery and opposition agitation are worth keeping an eye on.
Nigeria: Nigerians seem to like term limits. Seems like an improvement on president for life, or "until the junta decides to change."
Philippines: Speaking of Cardinal Sin (see Cardinal Zen above), another throw-back to exciting times, an attempted coup d'état against president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. More in English here and here. State of emergency declared here. More in French here. State of emergency called off.
Democratic Republic of Congo (ex-Zaire): From the BBC:
The date of the Democratic Republic of Congo's first multi-party elections for more than 40 years has been postponed until June - a two-month delay.
President Joseph Kabila still needs to give his approval to the date.
The electoral commission says the first round of voting will be on 18 June and a second round if needed would take place after the end of June.
Egypt: Condoleeza Rice offers support to Egyptian liberals as a signal to President Mubarrak to allow more opposition.
Italy: Drag-queen candidate Vladimir Luxuria blames "homophobia" for lack of support. The fact that the Times reports her as: "Signora Luxuria is standing for the Refounded Communists." So let me see, she's an apologist for the slaughter of over 100 million people, but she thinks she has an image problem?
Kazakhstan: Currently most attention is focussing on outbreak of avian influenza. However this report of skullduggery and opposition agitation are worth keeping an eye on.
Nigeria: Nigerians seem to like term limits. Seems like an improvement on president for life, or "until the junta decides to change."
Philippines: Speaking of Cardinal Sin (see Cardinal Zen above), another throw-back to exciting times, an attempted coup d'état against president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. More in English here and here. State of emergency declared here. More in French here. State of emergency called off.
3/14/2006
Iain Dale
I've added Iain Dale to my sidebar.
I admit that I did so more because of his involvement in one of my favorite London bookshops Politico's, which has gone digital.
I'm less Tory than Guido Fawkes or Iain, so I guess I'll have to start linking to other political sites in the U.K..
I admit that I did so more because of his involvement in one of my favorite London bookshops Politico's, which has gone digital.
I'm less Tory than Guido Fawkes or Iain, so I guess I'll have to start linking to other political sites in the U.K..
My guess right now: fighting the wrong enemy
My guess as to how things will pan out in the U.S. mid-term election this November, has been expressed almost verbatim by John Hinderaker on Power Line.
The main reason I'm not getting excited by opinion polls right now is that they reflect the popularity of George W. Bush. But someone needs to let the Democrats know that he's not their opponent and never will be again. They've lost every election they're going to lose to him. They will never beat him again in an election. I think the expression is "Move On." The war against Bush is over. They're a bit like old British army generals in 1914, who couldn't quite get used to the notion that they were supposed to be fighting Germans this time, not Russians or the French.
But I wouldn't be shocked if the Republicans didn't lose any seats at all. Republican candidates generally outperform polls, for a variety of reasons, and they have one ace in the hole: they get to run against Democrats. I don't detect any great ground swell in the electorate for a return to Democratic rule.
The main reason I'm not getting excited by opinion polls right now is that they reflect the popularity of George W. Bush. But someone needs to let the Democrats know that he's not their opponent and never will be again. They've lost every election they're going to lose to him. They will never beat him again in an election. I think the expression is "Move On." The war against Bush is over. They're a bit like old British army generals in 1914, who couldn't quite get used to the notion that they were supposed to be fighting Germans this time, not Russians or the French.
"Jews made Hamas win!"
Moderation
A political party that breaks away from Likud and promises to pull out of parts of the West Bank is moderate, right?
Well, not straightforwardly. Ehud Olmert, Kadima's acting leader has apprently authorized the expansion of a settlement in the West Bank, is pushing ahead with the "security wall", and has publicly suggested assassinating Ismael Haniya, the new Palestinian premier. If Ariel Sharon wakes up from his coma, I find the notion of the man who drove tanks across Egypt, was involved in the massacre of Palestinians in the Lebanon in 1982, and who's staged visit to the Temple on the Rock in Jerusalem in was the provocation for the second Intifada as a "moderate" as somewhat bizarre.
So if Mr Levi opposes the security barrier, doesn't agree with assassinating the Palestinian prime minister, agrees to the pull out of some settlements, but thinks the Israeli Labour Party are rotten economic managers, so he votes Likud, that makes him an extremist compared with Mr Olmert?
Moonbats
Here's a fine piece of Middle-East analysis: the Jews made Hamas win to force them to either compromise or cause the collapse of the Palestinian Authority when the U.S.A. and the E.U. stopped subsidizing the P.A..
If Hamas really believed this, they'd disband and stop playing the Jewish stooges.
[Hat tip: Al Jazeera-News]
A political party that breaks away from Likud and promises to pull out of parts of the West Bank is moderate, right?
Well, not straightforwardly. Ehud Olmert, Kadima's acting leader has apprently authorized the expansion of a settlement in the West Bank, is pushing ahead with the "security wall", and has publicly suggested assassinating Ismael Haniya, the new Palestinian premier. If Ariel Sharon wakes up from his coma, I find the notion of the man who drove tanks across Egypt, was involved in the massacre of Palestinians in the Lebanon in 1982, and who's staged visit to the Temple on the Rock in Jerusalem in was the provocation for the second Intifada as a "moderate" as somewhat bizarre.
So if Mr Levi opposes the security barrier, doesn't agree with assassinating the Palestinian prime minister, agrees to the pull out of some settlements, but thinks the Israeli Labour Party are rotten economic managers, so he votes Likud, that makes him an extremist compared with Mr Olmert?
Moonbats
Here's a fine piece of Middle-East analysis: the Jews made Hamas win to force them to either compromise or cause the collapse of the Palestinian Authority when the U.S.A. and the E.U. stopped subsidizing the P.A..
If Hamas really believed this, they'd disband and stop playing the Jewish stooges.
[Hat tip: Al Jazeera-News]
3/13/2006
Sinn Fein campaigning with the Rev Dr Ian Paisley?
I can't work out who runs the site below and the permalinks are poor, so I've cut and pasted a day's postings. If the information is true, the EU referendum campaign in Northern Ireland could be very amusing. Basically only the Ulster Unionists and maybe the SDLP would be in favour. All the parties linked to paramilitaries would be against. Any chance the European Commission could come and canvass door-to-door? :-)
One way of bridging the sectarian divide. And some people can't see any good coming of a referendum!
Check out also the reference to "Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast." Were these the people the IRA offered to shoot?
From Wikipedia:
One way of bridging the sectarian divide. And some people can't see any good coming of a referendum!
March 13th, 2006
Sinn Fein offers ‘British spy bug’ for sale (Reuters)
Reuters - The Irish Republican party Sinn Fein has put up for auction on the Internet what it says is a bugging device used by Britain to spy on one of its offices.
Ex-policeman standing for Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein has selected a former police officer to stand in the next Westminster elections, it emerged tonight.
Sinn Fein in Number 10 discussion
The Sinn Fein leadership attends a meeting in Downing Street amid speculation over an imminent IRA statement.
Sinn Fein member out of election
A Sinn Fein member who was in a Belfast bar on the night father-of-two Robert McCartney was murdered will not contest the local government elections, it emerged tonight.
Posted in Fein | No Comments »
March 13th, 2006
Homes of Sinn Fein members attacked - McLaughlin
The home of Gerry Adams and others belonging to Sinn Fein members in west Belfast were targeted in ball bearing attacks, the party claimed today.
Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein is Ireland’s fastest-growing political movement. Irish Republicans work for lasting peace and justice in Ireland with sustainable social and economic development, genuine democracy, participation, equality and justice for all. … Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams MP, Vice President Pat Doherty MP and party supporters accompany Sinn Féin’s …
Sinn Fein expels top member, says he spied
BELFAST, Northern Ireland — Sinn Fein expelled a prominent party member Friday and accused him of spying for Britain, a strange twist in a scandal that wrecked Northern Ireland’s power-sharing administration.
Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast.
Sinn Fein launches referendum campaign
Sinn Fein launches it capaign against the proposed EU constitution and sets out 13 clear resons why it is not in the interests of the people of Ireland
Check out also the reference to "Sinn Fein reinstates suspended members
Sinn Fein has reinstated five of the 12 party members who were suspended in the wake of the Robert McCartney murder in Belfast." Were these the people the IRA offered to shoot?
From Wikipedia:
On March 8 the IRA issued an unprecedented statement saying that they had made an offer to McCartney's family to shoot the members involved in the murder. The family made it clear that they wanted the people concerned prosecuted, not physically harmed.
2/28/2006
Polling numbers
George W Bush's approval ratings are analysed here.
For a light-hearted view of U.S. opinion polls outside election time try texasrainmaker.
For a light-hearted view of U.S. opinion polls outside election time try texasrainmaker.
2/26/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 26 February
I've met Pierre Lellouche (who's name ironically translates as "the shifty Peter" or "cross-eyed Pete"!), I reckon he's probably a good candidate. However, I gather the primaries for the Paris mayoral elections are likely to go to Françoise de Panafieu, a good aristocratic name! She's the former mayor of the arrondissement in Paris I lived in during 2001, the XVIIème. It seemed well run. Maybe she's the one to take on Bertrand Delanöe.
Meanwhile, London's Mayor is in Holocaust denial mode: at least he denies that making Nazi jibes to a Jewish reporter is antisemitic. Ken Livingstone got all those votes for being a nice politically correct anti-establishment type. It turns out he has the same political opinions as Colonel Blimp.
The bit of the puppet show where all sides start hitting the election official. I can think of more countries than Haiti where this story deserves to happen.
No mention of Justice Souter's home being targeted by campaigners (the source is the New York Times), but it's an interesting report nonetheless about the backlash across the U.S.A. about "eminent domain" the practice of nationalizing land under the pretext (not always real) of an overriding public interest, such as building a dam, an airport, or a friend's property development.
Uganda's election was predictable. Voting was on tribal lines.
The official line is that "there was no intimidation or cheating, and anyway the opposition are terrorists who deserve it," (or words to that effect). Apart from this. And this. The problem being that I doubt if either side would have been squeaky clean if they had the upper hand. And who can blame them! You lose the election and you're liable to get killed and tens of thousands of your people could be driven out of the country or massacred. Who wouldn't stuff ballot boxes with those stakes? You'd almost have to have a criminal lack of responsibility for your own people to not make sure of victory by all means available.
Officials results here.
I've said it before:
Syria's stooge in the Lebanon accuses French President Jacques Chirac of trying to cause his overthrow [in French]. If they take out contracts on each other, it's a win-win.
I never realised that Chirac had such support in "the Arab street".
Jonathan Singer on MyDD tries to get the point across to his readers that the U.S. Supreme Court is in danger of becoming an entrenched Conservative institution for the next decade or so. He's right to be worried. The ages of the existing Supreme Court justices are such that the next two most likely to retire are both liberals.
As one bitter American conservative told me recently about the U.S. President: "[George W.] Bush may be a shit on spending and welfare reform, but if he puts three conservatives on the Supreme Court, he'll have done alright."
Well what do you know?
Venezuela's Socialist leader, who tried to take power in a coup d'état before winning elections with physical intimidation, wants to abolish term limits. As Hugo Chavez is already rigging votes, he doesn't need to abolish elections.
Meanwhile, London's Mayor is in Holocaust denial mode: at least he denies that making Nazi jibes to a Jewish reporter is antisemitic. Ken Livingstone got all those votes for being a nice politically correct anti-establishment type. It turns out he has the same political opinions as Colonel Blimp.
The bit of the puppet show where all sides start hitting the election official. I can think of more countries than Haiti where this story deserves to happen.
No mention of Justice Souter's home being targeted by campaigners (the source is the New York Times), but it's an interesting report nonetheless about the backlash across the U.S.A. about "eminent domain" the practice of nationalizing land under the pretext (not always real) of an overriding public interest, such as building a dam, an airport, or a friend's property development.
Uganda's election was predictable. Voting was on tribal lines.
The official line is that "there was no intimidation or cheating, and anyway the opposition are terrorists who deserve it," (or words to that effect). Apart from this. And this. The problem being that I doubt if either side would have been squeaky clean if they had the upper hand. And who can blame them! You lose the election and you're liable to get killed and tens of thousands of your people could be driven out of the country or massacred. Who wouldn't stuff ballot boxes with those stakes? You'd almost have to have a criminal lack of responsibility for your own people to not make sure of victory by all means available.
Officials results here.
I've said it before:
Syria's stooge in the Lebanon accuses French President Jacques Chirac of trying to cause his overthrow [in French]. If they take out contracts on each other, it's a win-win.
I never realised that Chirac had such support in "the Arab street".
Jonathan Singer on MyDD tries to get the point across to his readers that the U.S. Supreme Court is in danger of becoming an entrenched Conservative institution for the next decade or so. He's right to be worried. The ages of the existing Supreme Court justices are such that the next two most likely to retire are both liberals.
As one bitter American conservative told me recently about the U.S. President: "[George W.] Bush may be a shit on spending and welfare reform, but if he puts three conservatives on the Supreme Court, he'll have done alright."
Well what do you know?
Venezuela's Socialist leader, who tried to take power in a coup d'état before winning elections with physical intimidation, wants to abolish term limits. As Hugo Chavez is already rigging votes, he doesn't need to abolish elections.
2/25/2006
A little disruption as Election Watch nears 5k hits
Over the week-end, I'm shifting my news feeds from Newsgator to Bloglines. I've found Newsgator to be on the slow side, and I didn't like the way some of its functions worked. Although I don't yet know about Bloglines' special features, it seems to run a lot faster, and anecdotally it seems to update faster too.
Meanwhile, the hit counter tells me that this blog is nearing the 5,000 hits mark (which isn't exactly going to get the Instapundit or Daily Kos quaking in their boots), but hey, I can't do postings during the daytime becuase I'm in an office that has the world's second oldest running Mac (the oldest is upstairs, being used by one of the city boys, I think he gets mine if I get the sack). I also haven't figure how to do subject sections on this blog. Also Brian Micklethwait is plotting to start a podcasting project and he wants me to do the "talking head" stuff on elections.
This weekend, I shall also be looking to improve the blogroll and I am aware that there are typos and broken links.
Finally, Sunday is weekly round-up day.
Update: Just made the 5,000! (23:16)
Meanwhile, the hit counter tells me that this blog is nearing the 5,000 hits mark (which isn't exactly going to get the Instapundit or Daily Kos quaking in their boots), but hey, I can't do postings during the daytime becuase I'm in an office that has the world's second oldest running Mac (the oldest is upstairs, being used by one of the city boys, I think he gets mine if I get the sack). I also haven't figure how to do subject sections on this blog. Also Brian Micklethwait is plotting to start a podcasting project and he wants me to do the "talking head" stuff on elections.
This weekend, I shall also be looking to improve the blogroll and I am aware that there are typos and broken links.
Finally, Sunday is weekly round-up day.
Update: Just made the 5,000! (23:16)
2/23/2006
The candidate couldn't find 50 voters in his own district
Here's an outrageous example of the amateurish U.S. electoral system in action, from the State of Ohio. Don't expect the Bush haters to jump up and down, because this one involves a grotesque performance by a Democrat candidate's campaign. In fairness, I gather this sort of thing happens to Libertarian and Republican candidates too.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
2/19/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 19 February
You want dirty politics? Try Harvard's board elections! These guys could teach the Borgias a thing or two.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
2/15/2006
Right idea!
How often do I agree with a Democrat's strategic thinking? Well, not any more!
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
Where's that tidal wave?
U.S. Democrats are cheering themselves up with scraps of evidence to support the dream of sweeping to victory in the House of Representatives (more than the Senate) in the coming November mid-term elections.
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
2/12/2006
Local taxes and how people vote
This chart shows the breakdown by U.S. state of the local tax burden. Polipundit makes the point that there is a correlation between low taxes and areas where Geroge W. Bush did well in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004.
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Free markets, rule of law
Democracy without free markets is an economic disaster which leads to increasingly populist and secatarian government, with ever more bureaucrats hired to increase the government's "payroll vote", and ever more subsidies to crony businesses and non-productive voters, to boost the "client vote". Before long we have an unreformable mess, where the democratic process is an obstruction to change, instead of a mechanism for preventing the entrenchment of particular interest groups.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
It also means, dare I say it, that most of our foreign-policy activism that is aimed overtly at promoting "democratic" reform is wasted effort, in the absence of a foundation of judicial and economic reform. One need only look at the absurdist "democratic" rise of Hamas to see that democracy can't really function properly in a corrupt legal and economic system.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
U.S. House of Representatives forecast for November 2006
My DD has the usual "we can win everywhere" forecast. One slight problem with these forecasts: they always miss the local races that one's party loses.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Thailand to hold referendum on new constitution
Thailand's prime minister is facing major protests from middle-class opposition that blames him for corruption and opening up Thailand to foreign influences. Reuters has the low-down here.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Democrats forged Wikipedia entries
Guess what didn't make the front page of the Washington Post and the New York Times?
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
Costa Rica, Libertarians' great hope fades
Ask me six years ago where in the world a Libertarian Party had a chance of victory and I would have unhestitatingly answered "Costa Rica". The Movimiento Libertario's leader Otto Guevara, was hitting the front of presidential election polls, coming in first or second. The ML had won a seat in the Costa Rican Senate and was to win six Deputies in the lower chamber.
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Referendum in Tokelau for independence
Three coral atholls in the Pacific Ocean are holding a referendum over whether to regain independence for the first time since 1889.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
2/11/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 12 February
More political stalemate in Iraq: the Shi'ites haven't agreed on a candidate for the premiership.
Le Monde reports on a fascinating proposed alliance between General Michel Aoun (the Christian militia leader) and Hizbollah. The terms include the recognition that Syrian forces must stay out of the Lebanon, a secure border also with Israel, and the possible merger of Hizbollah forces into the Lebanese armed forces. General Aoun hopes to become president.
Silvio Berlusconi is ridiculed by a Daily Telegraph correspondent for "seeing Reds under the bed". Because he sends copies of a book outlining the damage done by Communist and fellow-traveller intellectuals in European countries to party activists? Suppose the allegations made by respected (outside Cuba and North Korea and Massachusetts) historian Stéphane Courtois were true? BTW the book she mentions is not the Black Book of European Communism, but the newer book Du passé faisons table rase!, not available yet in English. The book outlines the deliberate actions of European Communist Parties in infiltrating academic circles and public institutions, something a smug English or American journalism-school graduate cannot begin to fathom, but a reality for hundreds of millions of people.
Democrats flagellating themselves over losing the Judge Alito nomination to the U.S. supreme court. Full campaign strategy (six months late) here.
"Helpful advice" offered no doubt in the spirit of compassion by Roger L. Simon. Meanwhile, this is what I call twisting the knife.
Le Figaro runs an in-depth analysis of Islamist political parties doing well in elections around the world. Any bets that none of this stuff sunk into the brains of the U.S. president George W. Bush's advisers?
Uzbekistan, a friend of the U.S. government in the "war" on "terror", tortures a pro-US free-market advocate on trumped up charges of embezzlement. (As if president Islam Karimov hadn't taken bribes from the U.S. government.)
Memo to the U.S. State Department: nice job sabotaging the credibility of the President's call for democracy throughout the Middle East.
Memo to warbloggers: where are you guys?
The Finnish presidential election, that was supposed to be a shoo-in for the moderate socialist, in fact was very close. Funny how the statist media only realized after the votes had been cast that the conservative had a chance! BBC, Le Figaro does a man on the street interview, Le Monde portrays the reelected president as a pacifist, but pro-NATO, though Mrs Tarja Halonen is not actually in favour of joining NATO.
For "pro-democracy protesters" in Nepal, be wary. They're often Maoists or other Chinese backed Communists. With that in mind latest news:
King authorizes shooting of pro-democracy demonstrators;
French report on the communist threat;
pro-communist French report;
BBC equivocation about communist terrorists, again;
...but not this time!
Daily Telegraph takes the appease Communists line, the problem is that the Maoists are a constant threat, and the political parties turn a blind eye in the hope that when the Maoists take over, they can do a deal. Pretty stupid after the experiences of Czechoslovakia, Poland, the U.S.S.R., China, Cambodia (also a monarchy in similar circumstances in the early 1970s). I guess they're afraid. So what's the Telegraph's excuse?
Fancy that, the king must go!
Troubled election in Haiti, reports in French and English here, here, here, here, here and here.
Second round seems likely.
Doom for California's Democrats, in the short term: they could lose the power to gerrymander districts and therefore power in the State legislature. That said, the reform would reduce the ability of a future Republican assembly majority from cooking the election rules. In the long-run, this could help Democrats: in theory the ethnic minority demographics should be helping them already.
George W. Bush continues to set the agenda for when he leaves office: judges appointed to federal courts (which is of course where the better-qualified Supreme Court nominees for years to come will be found).
... and one of the judges is the first black woman to serve as federal judge in a New England state. You know all those Democrat nominees since 1861 in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut? Nope, none of them were.
Memo to Vanessa Bryant: the racist hate mail starts now, from "liberals" who can't tolerate black women who don't submit to their chosen roles of victim or guilt merchant.
Polish government takes sides in Belarus election campaign. What's the Byelorussian for "Clark County"?
San Mateo (California) wants to go postal. When the fraudulent registrations and multiple voting happens, maybe someone will go postal.
Voting fraud opportunities in New York? Perish the thought!
I'm sorry I didn't cover the Palestinian Authority election in more detail. As I forecast, the side that killed more people won. Will this encourage the Israeli party with the most willingness to fight Hamas to assassinate terrorists in the run-up to elections. You better believe it!
My round up of French and English language coverage is here:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 and 9.
My DD has a monthly forecast of U.S. Senate results for this year. You can find earlier months through the link.
John Kerry's trying to blow his 2008 election chances already. Going to Switzerland in order to give a press conference saying that you want a filibuster because you haven't had time to debate Judge Alito's appointment is dumb, like the guy who thought he only needed to gain New Hampshire to win in 2004, and who "voted for the $87 billion before voting against", and managed the feat of being the only Catholic candidate in U.S. political history to lose the Catholic vote.
US Democrats end January in a shocking state. Let me see: scandals rocking Republicans, administration officials facing charges, not exactly splendid news coming out of Iraq or Afghanistan, budget and trade deficits not brilliant, and a president who alienated many of his supporters with the Harriet Myers nomination to the US Supreme Court and his bloated spending plans. Add to this the (at best) teething problems of Medicare Part D and a congressional race in California coming up where the outgoing Republican resigned in a barrage of criminal charges.
So what do they do?
This
this (Howard Dean is an incompetent buffoon)
this (Not my idea of a winning slogan: "We can only win if the convicted killers and rapists vote for us!" P.S. What happens if some of them vote Republican? Oops!)
this (a Democrat enthusiast assumes the opposite conclusions from figures which show why his party is a near-permanent minority in Congress)
this (Democratic "machine" politics in Pennsylvania, as explained by a Democrat enthusiast)
this (Democrat backs Alito for Supreme Court, and Polipundit has names for the next two Supreme Court judge nominations by president George W. Bush: Janice Rogers Brown or Raoul Cantero)
and these words of wisdom from former Governor Phil Bresenden fan Glenn Reynolds.
In particular I note:
The US Democrats look like they did in early 2004. And we know what happened in November...
BBC Report on the Conservative victory in Portugal (January 22). Even of the left hadn't been split five ways, Anibal Cavaco Silva would have won, given that he had 50.6% of the first round vote, making a run-off unnecessary. He is the first right-wing president of Portugal since the coup of 1974.
More reports here.
Le Monde reports on a fascinating proposed alliance between General Michel Aoun (the Christian militia leader) and Hizbollah. The terms include the recognition that Syrian forces must stay out of the Lebanon, a secure border also with Israel, and the possible merger of Hizbollah forces into the Lebanese armed forces. General Aoun hopes to become president.
Silvio Berlusconi is ridiculed by a Daily Telegraph correspondent for "seeing Reds under the bed". Because he sends copies of a book outlining the damage done by Communist and fellow-traveller intellectuals in European countries to party activists? Suppose the allegations made by respected (outside Cuba and North Korea and Massachusetts) historian Stéphane Courtois were true? BTW the book she mentions is not the Black Book of European Communism, but the newer book Du passé faisons table rase!, not available yet in English. The book outlines the deliberate actions of European Communist Parties in infiltrating academic circles and public institutions, something a smug English or American journalism-school graduate cannot begin to fathom, but a reality for hundreds of millions of people.
Democrats flagellating themselves over losing the Judge Alito nomination to the U.S. supreme court. Full campaign strategy (six months late) here.
"Helpful advice" offered no doubt in the spirit of compassion by Roger L. Simon. Meanwhile, this is what I call twisting the knife.
Le Figaro runs an in-depth analysis of Islamist political parties doing well in elections around the world. Any bets that none of this stuff sunk into the brains of the U.S. president George W. Bush's advisers?
Uzbekistan, a friend of the U.S. government in the "war" on "terror", tortures a pro-US free-market advocate on trumped up charges of embezzlement. (As if president Islam Karimov hadn't taken bribes from the U.S. government.)
Memo to the U.S. State Department: nice job sabotaging the credibility of the President's call for democracy throughout the Middle East.
Memo to warbloggers: where are you guys?
The Finnish presidential election, that was supposed to be a shoo-in for the moderate socialist, in fact was very close. Funny how the statist media only realized after the votes had been cast that the conservative had a chance! BBC, Le Figaro does a man on the street interview, Le Monde portrays the reelected president as a pacifist, but pro-NATO, though Mrs Tarja Halonen is not actually in favour of joining NATO.
For "pro-democracy protesters" in Nepal, be wary. They're often Maoists or other Chinese backed Communists. With that in mind latest news:
King authorizes shooting of pro-democracy demonstrators;
French report on the communist threat;
pro-communist French report;
BBC equivocation about communist terrorists, again;
...but not this time!
Daily Telegraph takes the appease Communists line, the problem is that the Maoists are a constant threat, and the political parties turn a blind eye in the hope that when the Maoists take over, they can do a deal. Pretty stupid after the experiences of Czechoslovakia, Poland, the U.S.S.R., China, Cambodia (also a monarchy in similar circumstances in the early 1970s). I guess they're afraid. So what's the Telegraph's excuse?
Fancy that, the king must go!
Troubled election in Haiti, reports in French and English here, here, here, here, here and here.
Second round seems likely.
Doom for California's Democrats, in the short term: they could lose the power to gerrymander districts and therefore power in the State legislature. That said, the reform would reduce the ability of a future Republican assembly majority from cooking the election rules. In the long-run, this could help Democrats: in theory the ethnic minority demographics should be helping them already.
George W. Bush continues to set the agenda for when he leaves office: judges appointed to federal courts (which is of course where the better-qualified Supreme Court nominees for years to come will be found).
... and one of the judges is the first black woman to serve as federal judge in a New England state. You know all those Democrat nominees since 1861 in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut? Nope, none of them were.
Memo to Vanessa Bryant: the racist hate mail starts now, from "liberals" who can't tolerate black women who don't submit to their chosen roles of victim or guilt merchant.
Polish government takes sides in Belarus election campaign. What's the Byelorussian for "Clark County"?
San Mateo (California) wants to go postal. When the fraudulent registrations and multiple voting happens, maybe someone will go postal.
Voting fraud opportunities in New York? Perish the thought!
I'm sorry I didn't cover the Palestinian Authority election in more detail. As I forecast, the side that killed more people won. Will this encourage the Israeli party with the most willingness to fight Hamas to assassinate terrorists in the run-up to elections. You better believe it!
My round up of French and English language coverage is here:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 and 9.
My DD has a monthly forecast of U.S. Senate results for this year. You can find earlier months through the link.
John Kerry's trying to blow his 2008 election chances already. Going to Switzerland in order to give a press conference saying that you want a filibuster because you haven't had time to debate Judge Alito's appointment is dumb, like the guy who thought he only needed to gain New Hampshire to win in 2004, and who "voted for the $87 billion before voting against", and managed the feat of being the only Catholic candidate in U.S. political history to lose the Catholic vote.
US Democrats end January in a shocking state. Let me see: scandals rocking Republicans, administration officials facing charges, not exactly splendid news coming out of Iraq or Afghanistan, budget and trade deficits not brilliant, and a president who alienated many of his supporters with the Harriet Myers nomination to the US Supreme Court and his bloated spending plans. Add to this the (at best) teething problems of Medicare Part D and a congressional race in California coming up where the outgoing Republican resigned in a barrage of criminal charges.
So what do they do?
This
this (Howard Dean is an incompetent buffoon)
this (Not my idea of a winning slogan: "We can only win if the convicted killers and rapists vote for us!" P.S. What happens if some of them vote Republican? Oops!)
this (a Democrat enthusiast assumes the opposite conclusions from figures which show why his party is a near-permanent minority in Congress)
this (Democratic "machine" politics in Pennsylvania, as explained by a Democrat enthusiast)
this (Democrat backs Alito for Supreme Court, and Polipundit has names for the next two Supreme Court judge nominations by president George W. Bush: Janice Rogers Brown or Raoul Cantero)
and these words of wisdom from former Governor Phil Bresenden fan Glenn Reynolds.
In particular I note:
That said, I think that lefties are over-focused on Bush, and that the GOP likes it that way. Bush's numbers may be down (though they seem to be trending up on Rasmussen at the moment, for reasons that aren't obvious to me; the filibuster talk, perhaps?) -- but it doesn't matter. Bush isn't running again. The next GOP candidate will run on an "I'm not Bush, but you can trust me on security more than the Democrats" platform -- as the elder Bush did in 1988. The Democrats' Bush-hatred just plays into that strategy. If they were smarter, they'd be building up some people of their own, which among other things would involve keeping them out of the fray of Bush-bashing. The only candidate who seems to fit that bill is Mark Warner, but I suspect the Kos/Moveon crowd won't like him.
The US Democrats look like they did in early 2004. And we know what happened in November...
BBC Report on the Conservative victory in Portugal (January 22). Even of the left hadn't been split five ways, Anibal Cavaco Silva would have won, given that he had 50.6% of the first round vote, making a run-off unnecessary. He is the first right-wing president of Portugal since the coup of 1974.
More reports here.
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