Over the week-end, I'm shifting my news feeds from Newsgator to Bloglines. I've found Newsgator to be on the slow side, and I didn't like the way some of its functions worked. Although I don't yet know about Bloglines' special features, it seems to run a lot faster, and anecdotally it seems to update faster too.
Meanwhile, the hit counter tells me that this blog is nearing the 5,000 hits mark (which isn't exactly going to get the Instapundit or Daily Kos quaking in their boots), but hey, I can't do postings during the daytime becuase I'm in an office that has the world's second oldest running Mac (the oldest is upstairs, being used by one of the city boys, I think he gets mine if I get the sack). I also haven't figure how to do subject sections on this blog. Also Brian Micklethwait is plotting to start a podcasting project and he wants me to do the "talking head" stuff on elections.
This weekend, I shall also be looking to improve the blogroll and I am aware that there are typos and broken links.
Finally, Sunday is weekly round-up day.
Update: Just made the 5,000! (23:16)
2/23/2006
The candidate couldn't find 50 voters in his own district
Here's an outrageous example of the amateurish U.S. electoral system in action, from the State of Ohio. Don't expect the Bush haters to jump up and down, because this one involves a grotesque performance by a Democrat candidate's campaign. In fairness, I gather this sort of thing happens to Libertarian and Republican candidates too.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
The story so far: Ohio State Senator Charlie Wilson (not quite the same as a local independent running for office the first time) sent people out to get signatures for his nomination to run for the 6th congressional district of Ohio.
I don't know if he paid people to do this (they do that in the U.S.A., which must seem very weird to any British political activist). If so, he didn't hire the best brains in the business because in one county, they actually gathered more than 70% of the signatures from the wrong district. For British reader, this is like sending people to Chelsea to sign a petition to be elected to Fulham. In fact, State Senator Wilson only needed 50 valid signatures in the Columbiana County, and of the 96 he submitted only 46 were valid. In Scioto County (which I happen to know is pronounced "Siyoda")only 7 out of 24 signatures were valid.
I'm sure it has happened in the U.K. to one of the major political parties, but not without either deliberate fraud (the election agent for a candidate forged the signatures, a practice I've come across a couple of times), or an unusual circumstance like someone died.
Here's a free tip on how to avoid this problem. 1) Buy a copy of the electoral register, costs about $20. 2) Find out from the election office how many signatures needed and from which districts (sometimes the rules insist that you need a few from each of the different areas in the district you're running for election in). Also get three copies of the nomination paper. 3) Gather some friends and supporters and spend a weekend going through the list to identify everyone known in the district, obviously including paid-up members. 4) Call on each of them door-to-door. Turn up with a list of eligible voters at the address and ask everyone there to sign up, there's no good reason why if there's a household with a couple, with a grown up kid or two if you can't get three signed up then. 5) Hand in the three completed nomination forms at the same time, getting a responsible person at the election authority's office to sign a receipt for them (prepare your own, in case they're not ready). If they refuse to give you a receipt, ask if you can be photographed handing the papers in (bet they'll initial your receipt then!). End of story!
Only hire teams of canvassers if they'll sign up for a penalty clause for failing to deliver (I'd say a liability of a couple of million dollars would be fair, and a good incentive for them to do the job right, heck I'd do it now if I was in the U.S.).
I have twice stood as an independent in local elections in the U.K. with no support and managed to get signatures by taking a map, a copy of the voters' register, several pens and the nomination paper. I find that as long as I explain that the voter is merely agreeing that I should be allowed to stand, as opposed to agreeing that they will vote for me, most people are happy to sign up for a non-loon.
2/19/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 19 February
You want dirty politics? Try Harvard's board elections! These guys could teach the Borgias a thing or two.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
John McCain should beat Hillary Clinton for the U.S. presidency in 2008... if he doesn't get destroyed by us bloggers who are mad at his inept and anti-free speech campaign reforms.... if the conservatives don't get him like in 2000... and if his health holds out. He's trying to fix the second problem right now.
Ghastly though! French sociologists find that a French conservative revolution is underway! Pauvre Monsieur Chirac.
New Democratic Republic Congo (recently called "Zaire") constitution approved.
Israeli acting-prime minister calls the Palestinian Authority "de facto terrorists." I call it electioneering.
OK. Now I believe Rick Santorum has a chance of re-election in Pennsylvania (U.S. Senate, this coming November).
Four presidential candidates for Belarus next month.
This could be a campaign not only against free speech, which last time I looked was guaranteed under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. It also is an attempt to interfere in the democratic process, seeing as gambling sites are essential tools for predicting the outcome of elections (I guess the soon-to-be-losers want to keep the spread betters from showing them up). Oh, and it violates the World Trade Organization's rules. China in U.S.A. out?
Silvio Berlusconi hopes to turn the Italian general election into a plebiscite for or against him (according to Le Monde, so they could be wrong).
Failed coup d'état attempt in the Philippines. Of course with presidents winning elections with sometimes less than a quarter of the vote, never mind the electorate, it's actually quite healthy that they don't have more of them.
Endless speculation (ok it just feels that way) about the 2008 U.S. presidential elections. Here and here.
Tokelau says "No" to independence. With only 1,500 people, I imagine that simple things like the cost of having an embassy in New Zealand would have been difficult to manage. Initial report here.
French talk of "primaries" for the 2007 presidential election in France.
Britain's Conservative Party (having sent people to help out John Kerry at the last U.S. presidential election, and having been refused access to George W. Bush last time their leader visited the U.S.A.) wants to mend the rift. Copying social-democratic policies shouldn't work, should it?
Democratic murmurs in Lebanon resume. More here.
Shenanigans in Palestine. First Fatah cancels an election (five years ago). Then they hold an election without even posting the fact on their own government website. Now they change the constitution with outgoing members of the assembly, because they lost. No wonder Hamas looks good!
Meanwhile, jostling to make friends with a former pariah. I wonder what the Hamas definition of a "pragmatist" is?
Nepal's Maoist prove that however nasty my write-up of them last week, they can always make themselves appear more intolerant and wicked. Nepal's king, meanwhile seems determined to play the conciliatory Louis XVI role to the letter. I would not want to be a royal bodyguard!
Royal despotism: political activists killed. Maoist rule: half the population killed or starve. Looks like self-defence to me.
Earth to planet moonbat.
Kadima remains ahead in Israel's election race, despite Ariel Sharon's coma. I can only say this does not bode well for Israel's future.
Cape Verde held elections last week for their president. Report here. Incomplete returns here. Further report here.
Ibrahim Jaafari to stay as Iraq's Prime Minister.
The New York writes: "Why we're rubbish! We can't even link to a roll-call for the Samuel Alito confirmation votes in the Senate." No comment!
In Haiti, it looks as if foreign governments have decided that the second round vote is unnecessary, an extraordinary intervention without precedent.
Coverage here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.
In Japan, the rules of succession for the Emperor restricting eligibility to males is being maintained (for now) as the government says it will wait and see what the latest imperial family pregnancy produces.
2/15/2006
Right idea!
How often do I agree with a Democrat's strategic thinking? Well, not any more!
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
This thoughtful posting about George Allen on MyDD by Scott Shields get two things right.
First it focuses on the next Republican presidential nominee, not the term-limited incumbent George W. Bush. Taking a look at who the Republican activists might want is an altogether better strategy than droning on about someone who is due to retire in a couple of years time. George Allen is not the pollsters favourite, but he is on of the bookies favourites. But pollsters tend to ask the public, and the public don't choose the candidate. Right call MyDD!
Second, Scott suggests taking some political pot-shots at Senator Allen right now, see if he can be defeated in his Virginia U.S. Senate election this November. I'd say they have it right. Virginia is not as rock solid as most Southern states for the GOP, and there's at least the chance of finding something in his voting record to split the Republican base.
My own view is that Allen is automatically a less than ideal candidate by virtue of being a sitting U.S. Senator.
Where's that tidal wave?
U.S. Democrats are cheering themselves up with scraps of evidence to support the dream of sweeping to victory in the House of Representatives (more than the Senate) in the coming November mid-term elections.
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
Let's be clear about it, a tidal wave where something like 30 seats change hands is possible. It happened in 1980, 1986 and 1994. Why the Democrats are clutching at straws for a landslide, is that the electoral map for them is so bad that anything less than a political earthquake in their direction will not be enough.
The result is inflated expectations at precisely the wrong moment. If the Democrats win ten seat in the House, it's a moral victory for the Republicans, but only because of months from the Democrat side telling us about the dozens of seats they're going to win in Texas and Pennsylvania and.. and sounds like the Howard Dean scream.
Here's what Business Week has to say about the Republicans' chances. Basically, if house prices stay buoyant, the feel-good factor will do the job for them.
Remembering how deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher was in opinion polls during the 1980s, and remembering how at election time the unemployment figure always seemed to be dipping and house prices were booming, I can imagine a similar scenario in the U.S.A.. My advice to Democrats would be to keep the expectation levels down. That's what Republicans did brilliantly in 2002 [scroll down to table of before and after the elections]...
2/12/2006
Local taxes and how people vote
This chart shows the breakdown by U.S. state of the local tax burden. Polipundit makes the point that there is a correlation between low taxes and areas where Geroge W. Bush did well in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004.
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Perhaps the most surprising states are Colorado and Wyoming, both in the top 15.
[Hat tip: Polipundit]
Free markets, rule of law
Democracy without free markets is an economic disaster which leads to increasingly populist and secatarian government, with ever more bureaucrats hired to increase the government's "payroll vote", and ever more subsidies to crony businesses and non-productive voters, to boost the "client vote". Before long we have an unreformable mess, where the democratic process is an obstruction to change, instead of a mechanism for preventing the entrenchment of particular interest groups.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
But this is nothing to the problems of a society without the rule of law. Because free markets are inherently bottom-up operations, they don't need to be part of a rotten democratic process: the traders and consumers can engage in vountary exchange, while the politicians claim credit for the fact that people have jobs. But a society without the rule of law combines all the disadvantages of anarchy, with all the disadvantages of the arbitrary state.
Hillary Johnson writes about this here.
It also means, dare I say it, that most of our foreign-policy activism that is aimed overtly at promoting "democratic" reform is wasted effort, in the absence of a foundation of judicial and economic reform. One need only look at the absurdist "democratic" rise of Hamas to see that democracy can't really function properly in a corrupt legal and economic system.
So the neoconservative project doesn't work in Iraq or anywhere else the U.S.A. is pushing it, because the intellectuals concerned have bought into the sixties liberal pap about "democracy" equals "niceness". An earlier generation of U.S. foreign policy experts thought that "Uncle Joe" Stalin was more of a humanitarian than Winston Churchill, and the U.S.A. had more in common with the U.S.S.R. than with the British Empire.
U.S. House of Representatives forecast for November 2006
My DD has the usual "we can win everywhere" forecast. One slight problem with these forecasts: they always miss the local races that one's party loses.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Still it's a valuable record to use as a benchmark. I shall issue my own forecast around April.
In other news from My DD, the opinion polls are starting to show a narrowing of the Democrat lead. The problem this year is that as a mid-term election, the party that organises best and mobilises its core vote usually outperforms the opinion polls. With very few truly competitive races, expect any claims of a landslide to be disappointed.
Between them the two stories read: "We're going to win!" and "Shut up! don't look at the polls. They're Bushitler lies!"
For the record, Election Vote Predictor 2004 (see sidebar) showed the following in May 2004: May 24 Bush win 281-257, and May 25 Kerry win 320-218. These are the earliest figures I could find. The result was George W. Bush 286, John Ferry 251. As these forecasts were made on the basis of aggregating U.S. opinion polls, I see no reason to assume that they're overstating the Republican vote on the day. Far from it.
Thailand to hold referendum on new constitution
Thailand's prime minister is facing major protests from middle-class opposition that blames him for corruption and opening up Thailand to foreign influences. Reuters has the low-down here.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Thaksin Shinawatra has responded by offering changes to the constitution, effectively a plebiscite into his remaining in power. He hopes to delay a vote until April 19, when Thailand holds senatorial elections.
Democrats forged Wikipedia entries
Guess what didn't make the front page of the Washington Post and the New York Times?
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
I guess the fact that the vandalisim was done to Republicans and most of the cover-ups were done by Democrats made the story too confusing for their readers.
Costa Rica, Libertarians' great hope fades
Ask me six years ago where in the world a Libertarian Party had a chance of victory and I would have unhestitatingly answered "Costa Rica". The Movimiento Libertario's leader Otto Guevara, was hitting the front of presidential election polls, coming in first or second. The ML had won a seat in the Costa Rican Senate and was to win six Deputies in the lower chamber.
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Since then, the ML has behaved like a bad parody of the British Conservative Party in the 1990s, without the excuse of the corrupting effects of power. First the "radicals" have been expelled (even if this made any kind of strategic sense, it's a bit of a contradiction for a "libertarian" party). Then the party took government funding, and appears to have got lazy about fundraising and campaigning.
[Hat tip Reason's Hit and Run]
The result is a pathetic score in the recent round of elections, competing against an imploded ruling party.
Meanwhile, the parties actually competing the election are reported on the BBC and in Le Figaro [subscription may be required].
Referendum in Tokelau for independence
Three coral atholls in the Pacific Ocean are holding a referendum over whether to regain independence for the first time since 1889.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo have a combined population of only 1,500 and an electorate of 660. If granted independence they would form the Tokelau Islands, the third smallest independent state in the world, with the Vatican and Monaco the only smaller.
Voting ends on February 15, and is being monitored by four U.N. observers.
2/11/2006
Weekly round up Sunday 12 February
More political stalemate in Iraq: the Shi'ites haven't agreed on a candidate for the premiership.
Le Monde reports on a fascinating proposed alliance between General Michel Aoun (the Christian militia leader) and Hizbollah. The terms include the recognition that Syrian forces must stay out of the Lebanon, a secure border also with Israel, and the possible merger of Hizbollah forces into the Lebanese armed forces. General Aoun hopes to become president.
Silvio Berlusconi is ridiculed by a Daily Telegraph correspondent for "seeing Reds under the bed". Because he sends copies of a book outlining the damage done by Communist and fellow-traveller intellectuals in European countries to party activists? Suppose the allegations made by respected (outside Cuba and North Korea and Massachusetts) historian Stéphane Courtois were true? BTW the book she mentions is not the Black Book of European Communism, but the newer book Du passé faisons table rase!, not available yet in English. The book outlines the deliberate actions of European Communist Parties in infiltrating academic circles and public institutions, something a smug English or American journalism-school graduate cannot begin to fathom, but a reality for hundreds of millions of people.
Democrats flagellating themselves over losing the Judge Alito nomination to the U.S. supreme court. Full campaign strategy (six months late) here.
"Helpful advice" offered no doubt in the spirit of compassion by Roger L. Simon. Meanwhile, this is what I call twisting the knife.
Le Figaro runs an in-depth analysis of Islamist political parties doing well in elections around the world. Any bets that none of this stuff sunk into the brains of the U.S. president George W. Bush's advisers?
Uzbekistan, a friend of the U.S. government in the "war" on "terror", tortures a pro-US free-market advocate on trumped up charges of embezzlement. (As if president Islam Karimov hadn't taken bribes from the U.S. government.)
Memo to the U.S. State Department: nice job sabotaging the credibility of the President's call for democracy throughout the Middle East.
Memo to warbloggers: where are you guys?
The Finnish presidential election, that was supposed to be a shoo-in for the moderate socialist, in fact was very close. Funny how the statist media only realized after the votes had been cast that the conservative had a chance! BBC, Le Figaro does a man on the street interview, Le Monde portrays the reelected president as a pacifist, but pro-NATO, though Mrs Tarja Halonen is not actually in favour of joining NATO.
For "pro-democracy protesters" in Nepal, be wary. They're often Maoists or other Chinese backed Communists. With that in mind latest news:
King authorizes shooting of pro-democracy demonstrators;
French report on the communist threat;
pro-communist French report;
BBC equivocation about communist terrorists, again;
...but not this time!
Daily Telegraph takes the appease Communists line, the problem is that the Maoists are a constant threat, and the political parties turn a blind eye in the hope that when the Maoists take over, they can do a deal. Pretty stupid after the experiences of Czechoslovakia, Poland, the U.S.S.R., China, Cambodia (also a monarchy in similar circumstances in the early 1970s). I guess they're afraid. So what's the Telegraph's excuse?
Fancy that, the king must go!
Troubled election in Haiti, reports in French and English here, here, here, here, here and here.
Second round seems likely.
Doom for California's Democrats, in the short term: they could lose the power to gerrymander districts and therefore power in the State legislature. That said, the reform would reduce the ability of a future Republican assembly majority from cooking the election rules. In the long-run, this could help Democrats: in theory the ethnic minority demographics should be helping them already.
George W. Bush continues to set the agenda for when he leaves office: judges appointed to federal courts (which is of course where the better-qualified Supreme Court nominees for years to come will be found).
... and one of the judges is the first black woman to serve as federal judge in a New England state. You know all those Democrat nominees since 1861 in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut? Nope, none of them were.
Memo to Vanessa Bryant: the racist hate mail starts now, from "liberals" who can't tolerate black women who don't submit to their chosen roles of victim or guilt merchant.
Polish government takes sides in Belarus election campaign. What's the Byelorussian for "Clark County"?
San Mateo (California) wants to go postal. When the fraudulent registrations and multiple voting happens, maybe someone will go postal.
Voting fraud opportunities in New York? Perish the thought!
I'm sorry I didn't cover the Palestinian Authority election in more detail. As I forecast, the side that killed more people won. Will this encourage the Israeli party with the most willingness to fight Hamas to assassinate terrorists in the run-up to elections. You better believe it!
My round up of French and English language coverage is here:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 and 9.
My DD has a monthly forecast of U.S. Senate results for this year. You can find earlier months through the link.
John Kerry's trying to blow his 2008 election chances already. Going to Switzerland in order to give a press conference saying that you want a filibuster because you haven't had time to debate Judge Alito's appointment is dumb, like the guy who thought he only needed to gain New Hampshire to win in 2004, and who "voted for the $87 billion before voting against", and managed the feat of being the only Catholic candidate in U.S. political history to lose the Catholic vote.
US Democrats end January in a shocking state. Let me see: scandals rocking Republicans, administration officials facing charges, not exactly splendid news coming out of Iraq or Afghanistan, budget and trade deficits not brilliant, and a president who alienated many of his supporters with the Harriet Myers nomination to the US Supreme Court and his bloated spending plans. Add to this the (at best) teething problems of Medicare Part D and a congressional race in California coming up where the outgoing Republican resigned in a barrage of criminal charges.
So what do they do?
This
this (Howard Dean is an incompetent buffoon)
this (Not my idea of a winning slogan: "We can only win if the convicted killers and rapists vote for us!" P.S. What happens if some of them vote Republican? Oops!)
this (a Democrat enthusiast assumes the opposite conclusions from figures which show why his party is a near-permanent minority in Congress)
this (Democratic "machine" politics in Pennsylvania, as explained by a Democrat enthusiast)
this (Democrat backs Alito for Supreme Court, and Polipundit has names for the next two Supreme Court judge nominations by president George W. Bush: Janice Rogers Brown or Raoul Cantero)
and these words of wisdom from former Governor Phil Bresenden fan Glenn Reynolds.
In particular I note:
The US Democrats look like they did in early 2004. And we know what happened in November...
BBC Report on the Conservative victory in Portugal (January 22). Even of the left hadn't been split five ways, Anibal Cavaco Silva would have won, given that he had 50.6% of the first round vote, making a run-off unnecessary. He is the first right-wing president of Portugal since the coup of 1974.
More reports here.
Le Monde reports on a fascinating proposed alliance between General Michel Aoun (the Christian militia leader) and Hizbollah. The terms include the recognition that Syrian forces must stay out of the Lebanon, a secure border also with Israel, and the possible merger of Hizbollah forces into the Lebanese armed forces. General Aoun hopes to become president.
Silvio Berlusconi is ridiculed by a Daily Telegraph correspondent for "seeing Reds under the bed". Because he sends copies of a book outlining the damage done by Communist and fellow-traveller intellectuals in European countries to party activists? Suppose the allegations made by respected (outside Cuba and North Korea and Massachusetts) historian Stéphane Courtois were true? BTW the book she mentions is not the Black Book of European Communism, but the newer book Du passé faisons table rase!, not available yet in English. The book outlines the deliberate actions of European Communist Parties in infiltrating academic circles and public institutions, something a smug English or American journalism-school graduate cannot begin to fathom, but a reality for hundreds of millions of people.
Democrats flagellating themselves over losing the Judge Alito nomination to the U.S. supreme court. Full campaign strategy (six months late) here.
"Helpful advice" offered no doubt in the spirit of compassion by Roger L. Simon. Meanwhile, this is what I call twisting the knife.
Le Figaro runs an in-depth analysis of Islamist political parties doing well in elections around the world. Any bets that none of this stuff sunk into the brains of the U.S. president George W. Bush's advisers?
Uzbekistan, a friend of the U.S. government in the "war" on "terror", tortures a pro-US free-market advocate on trumped up charges of embezzlement. (As if president Islam Karimov hadn't taken bribes from the U.S. government.)
Memo to the U.S. State Department: nice job sabotaging the credibility of the President's call for democracy throughout the Middle East.
Memo to warbloggers: where are you guys?
The Finnish presidential election, that was supposed to be a shoo-in for the moderate socialist, in fact was very close. Funny how the statist media only realized after the votes had been cast that the conservative had a chance! BBC, Le Figaro does a man on the street interview, Le Monde portrays the reelected president as a pacifist, but pro-NATO, though Mrs Tarja Halonen is not actually in favour of joining NATO.
For "pro-democracy protesters" in Nepal, be wary. They're often Maoists or other Chinese backed Communists. With that in mind latest news:
King authorizes shooting of pro-democracy demonstrators;
French report on the communist threat;
pro-communist French report;
BBC equivocation about communist terrorists, again;
...but not this time!
Daily Telegraph takes the appease Communists line, the problem is that the Maoists are a constant threat, and the political parties turn a blind eye in the hope that when the Maoists take over, they can do a deal. Pretty stupid after the experiences of Czechoslovakia, Poland, the U.S.S.R., China, Cambodia (also a monarchy in similar circumstances in the early 1970s). I guess they're afraid. So what's the Telegraph's excuse?
Fancy that, the king must go!
Troubled election in Haiti, reports in French and English here, here, here, here, here and here.
Second round seems likely.
Doom for California's Democrats, in the short term: they could lose the power to gerrymander districts and therefore power in the State legislature. That said, the reform would reduce the ability of a future Republican assembly majority from cooking the election rules. In the long-run, this could help Democrats: in theory the ethnic minority demographics should be helping them already.
George W. Bush continues to set the agenda for when he leaves office: judges appointed to federal courts (which is of course where the better-qualified Supreme Court nominees for years to come will be found).
... and one of the judges is the first black woman to serve as federal judge in a New England state. You know all those Democrat nominees since 1861 in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut? Nope, none of them were.
Memo to Vanessa Bryant: the racist hate mail starts now, from "liberals" who can't tolerate black women who don't submit to their chosen roles of victim or guilt merchant.
Polish government takes sides in Belarus election campaign. What's the Byelorussian for "Clark County"?
San Mateo (California) wants to go postal. When the fraudulent registrations and multiple voting happens, maybe someone will go postal.
Voting fraud opportunities in New York? Perish the thought!
I'm sorry I didn't cover the Palestinian Authority election in more detail. As I forecast, the side that killed more people won. Will this encourage the Israeli party with the most willingness to fight Hamas to assassinate terrorists in the run-up to elections. You better believe it!
My round up of French and English language coverage is here:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 and 9.
My DD has a monthly forecast of U.S. Senate results for this year. You can find earlier months through the link.
John Kerry's trying to blow his 2008 election chances already. Going to Switzerland in order to give a press conference saying that you want a filibuster because you haven't had time to debate Judge Alito's appointment is dumb, like the guy who thought he only needed to gain New Hampshire to win in 2004, and who "voted for the $87 billion before voting against", and managed the feat of being the only Catholic candidate in U.S. political history to lose the Catholic vote.
US Democrats end January in a shocking state. Let me see: scandals rocking Republicans, administration officials facing charges, not exactly splendid news coming out of Iraq or Afghanistan, budget and trade deficits not brilliant, and a president who alienated many of his supporters with the Harriet Myers nomination to the US Supreme Court and his bloated spending plans. Add to this the (at best) teething problems of Medicare Part D and a congressional race in California coming up where the outgoing Republican resigned in a barrage of criminal charges.
So what do they do?
This
this (Howard Dean is an incompetent buffoon)
this (Not my idea of a winning slogan: "We can only win if the convicted killers and rapists vote for us!" P.S. What happens if some of them vote Republican? Oops!)
this (a Democrat enthusiast assumes the opposite conclusions from figures which show why his party is a near-permanent minority in Congress)
this (Democratic "machine" politics in Pennsylvania, as explained by a Democrat enthusiast)
this (Democrat backs Alito for Supreme Court, and Polipundit has names for the next two Supreme Court judge nominations by president George W. Bush: Janice Rogers Brown or Raoul Cantero)
and these words of wisdom from former Governor Phil Bresenden fan Glenn Reynolds.
In particular I note:
That said, I think that lefties are over-focused on Bush, and that the GOP likes it that way. Bush's numbers may be down (though they seem to be trending up on Rasmussen at the moment, for reasons that aren't obvious to me; the filibuster talk, perhaps?) -- but it doesn't matter. Bush isn't running again. The next GOP candidate will run on an "I'm not Bush, but you can trust me on security more than the Democrats" platform -- as the elder Bush did in 1988. The Democrats' Bush-hatred just plays into that strategy. If they were smarter, they'd be building up some people of their own, which among other things would involve keeping them out of the fray of Bush-bashing. The only candidate who seems to fit that bill is Mark Warner, but I suspect the Kos/Moveon crowd won't like him.
The US Democrats look like they did in early 2004. And we know what happened in November...
BBC Report on the Conservative victory in Portugal (January 22). Even of the left hadn't been split five ways, Anibal Cavaco Silva would have won, given that he had 50.6% of the first round vote, making a run-off unnecessary. He is the first right-wing president of Portugal since the coup of 1974.
More reports here.
2/01/2006
Coming up: Antoine Clarke's weekly round-up of election news
The problem:
I collect news and blog items about elections several times a day.
My various writing and business committments prevent me from posting on this blog for days on end.
I don't yet understand how to use Furl, and I want to do more than just post a list of URLs without comment, so I don't want to simply post my newsgator feeds as they occur.
My conclusion is to start a weekly round-up of election news.
This adds to whatever I can post in the course of the week, and will consist of the most relevant articles and blog posts I've read in the past few days, with my analysis.
Having just evolved into a Wiggly Worm (according to The Truth Laid Bear ratings), I think this is a better service I can offer. I have just realised that there's a problem with my RSS feed setup, so readers may not have been able to load this site into their news aggregators. I shall be looking to solve this by next week.
I collect news and blog items about elections several times a day.
My various writing and business committments prevent me from posting on this blog for days on end.
I don't yet understand how to use Furl, and I want to do more than just post a list of URLs without comment, so I don't want to simply post my newsgator feeds as they occur.
My conclusion is to start a weekly round-up of election news.
This adds to whatever I can post in the course of the week, and will consist of the most relevant articles and blog posts I've read in the past few days, with my analysis.
Having just evolved into a Wiggly Worm (according to The Truth Laid Bear ratings), I think this is a better service I can offer. I have just realised that there's a problem with my RSS feed setup, so readers may not have been able to load this site into their news aggregators. I shall be looking to solve this by next week.
1/31/2006
Rudy for '08?
Speculation in Time magazine that Rudolf Giuliani is testing the waters for a run for U.S. President. I think he's got the name and the public recognition. Will the Republican base tolerate his liberal views on abortion and guns? If there were a strong Republican governor (Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush) I'd confidently say, Rudy doesn't stand a chance. But against John McCain or some relatively anonymous U.S. Senate colleague? The bookies have Giuliani as second favourite.
The problem for Mr Giuliani is the South, but only for primaries and not if the field is split. I can't see Texas, Florida or Georgia going Democrat because the choice is Mr Giuliani or Mrs Clinton. The prize he dangles is breaking the Democrat stranglehold on the North-East. Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland all look less convincingly Democrat with a Giuliani-Clinton contest. I'd guess California doesn't look so solid either.
Forecast: if the Republicans are going to field a pro-abortion pro-gun control candidate in 2008, Rudy's the only man, and barring health issues, he beats Hillary Clinton or Mark Warner hands-down. So maybe Rudy has do a deal on guns and abortion? Fancy that! Time tells us that Rudy has the acquiescence of Pat Robertson and has opened a law office in Texas.
The Supreme Court as it stands probably helps him. With a conservative majority in place, the concern over a moderate Republican President has to be reduced among the core supporters.
The problem for Mr Giuliani is the South, but only for primaries and not if the field is split. I can't see Texas, Florida or Georgia going Democrat because the choice is Mr Giuliani or Mrs Clinton. The prize he dangles is breaking the Democrat stranglehold on the North-East. Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland all look less convincingly Democrat with a Giuliani-Clinton contest. I'd guess California doesn't look so solid either.
Forecast: if the Republicans are going to field a pro-abortion pro-gun control candidate in 2008, Rudy's the only man, and barring health issues, he beats Hillary Clinton or Mark Warner hands-down. So maybe Rudy has do a deal on guns and abortion? Fancy that! Time tells us that Rudy has the acquiescence of Pat Robertson and has opened a law office in Texas.
The Supreme Court as it stands probably helps him. With a conservative majority in place, the concern over a moderate Republican President has to be reduced among the core supporters.
Alito is in, what were the Democrats playing at?
In the end it was a walkover. First 41 Democrats couldn't be found to support a filibuster (out of 44 and 1 independent) AND they didn't have the sense to avoid a cloture vote.
Thank you again, Senator "I-only-need-to-win-New-Hampshire-to-be-President" John Kerry. I guess in a year's time we should be grateful we won't be hearing about how Senator Kerry actually voted for cloture before voting against it.
Then, 58 Senators voted for Sam Alito, a rather more comfortable score than might have been anticipated, given just how mad and disappointed the liberal base is going to be over this result.
Where did the Democrats blow it?
1) They picked a terrible candidate for U.S. President in 2004. A man George W. Bush could beat in Iowa, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia and New Mexico. A man who nearly lost Oregon, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Minnesota. Who barely won New Hampshire and apparently thought that he didn't need to gain anywhere else (someone must have explained the 10-yearly census to him before polling day).
A better candidate for president and the whole issue would never have arisen.
2) They simultaneously wanted to derail Alito on abortion, but didn't want anti-abortion voters to know about it.
So we had the grotesque performance of Senator Ted Kennedy trying to sound upset about Judge Alito's treatment of women. Unlike the Massachusetts Senator, Mr Alito was not held to be responsible for abandoning a car in a ditch with a woman inside it to drown. The judge's "crime" was to join a student society that didn't allow women members, in about 1973. Which would sound one heck of a more convincing felony if the person making the accusation weren't himself a member of similar clubs and societies. I think they tried to pin some vague suggestion that some of the people attending this club were racists, a bit like that Democratic Senator who once joined the Ku Kux Klan, and I'm awaiting the refusal of other Democratic Senators to share a platform with him.
The bit they might have had something to say for themselves was in the question of presidential powers, at a time when there was a row brewing over the federal government's use of surveillance against U.S. citizens. If it were true that judge Alito would give too much leeway to a President, then I'd say this was something to chisel away at the moderate Republican Senators with. But not after the buffoonery of Senator Kennedy.
3) The cloture debate: at one point Senator Harry Reid was said by the clerk in the U.S. Senate chamber to have voted in favour of closing the debate, before hurriedly being corrected to a "nay" vote. The leader of Democrats in the Senate had said a week ago that there had been sufficient time for Senators to discuss the appointment, but obviously a week later this was no longer true.
So by tonight, Alito will be sworn in, by May he will be interpreting the Constitution, and Democrats will be fighting other Democrats over who is to blame.
Thank you again, Senator "I-only-need-to-win-New-Hampshire-to-be-President" John Kerry. I guess in a year's time we should be grateful we won't be hearing about how Senator Kerry actually voted for cloture before voting against it.
Then, 58 Senators voted for Sam Alito, a rather more comfortable score than might have been anticipated, given just how mad and disappointed the liberal base is going to be over this result.
Where did the Democrats blow it?
1) They picked a terrible candidate for U.S. President in 2004. A man George W. Bush could beat in Iowa, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia and New Mexico. A man who nearly lost Oregon, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Minnesota. Who barely won New Hampshire and apparently thought that he didn't need to gain anywhere else (someone must have explained the 10-yearly census to him before polling day).
A better candidate for president and the whole issue would never have arisen.
2) They simultaneously wanted to derail Alito on abortion, but didn't want anti-abortion voters to know about it.
So we had the grotesque performance of Senator Ted Kennedy trying to sound upset about Judge Alito's treatment of women. Unlike the Massachusetts Senator, Mr Alito was not held to be responsible for abandoning a car in a ditch with a woman inside it to drown. The judge's "crime" was to join a student society that didn't allow women members, in about 1973. Which would sound one heck of a more convincing felony if the person making the accusation weren't himself a member of similar clubs and societies. I think they tried to pin some vague suggestion that some of the people attending this club were racists, a bit like that Democratic Senator who once joined the Ku Kux Klan, and I'm awaiting the refusal of other Democratic Senators to share a platform with him.
The bit they might have had something to say for themselves was in the question of presidential powers, at a time when there was a row brewing over the federal government's use of surveillance against U.S. citizens. If it were true that judge Alito would give too much leeway to a President, then I'd say this was something to chisel away at the moderate Republican Senators with. But not after the buffoonery of Senator Kennedy.
3) The cloture debate: at one point Senator Harry Reid was said by the clerk in the U.S. Senate chamber to have voted in favour of closing the debate, before hurriedly being corrected to a "nay" vote. The leader of Democrats in the Senate had said a week ago that there had been sufficient time for Senators to discuss the appointment, but obviously a week later this was no longer true.
So by tonight, Alito will be sworn in, by May he will be interpreting the Constitution, and Democrats will be fighting other Democrats over who is to blame.
100th posting on Antoine Clarke's Election Watch
This is my one hundredth posting on Antoine Clarke's Election Watch. I'm writing this from Chillicothe, Ohio where I'm spending the week. I was going to do a round-up from the forty or so clipping I've amassed in the past week on Newsgator, but I'll leave that for the next posting.
I also watched my first ever U.S. Senate debate and vote yesterday evening: the cloture vote (a "guillotine vote" in the U.K.) on the debate over nominating Judge Samuel A. Alito as a member of the U.S. Supreme Court (roll call here). I think this is the most important democratic event in 2006, given the power that the U.S. Supreme Court has to overturn the law, and decide on disputed elections. The vote seemed to take ages longer than necessary, over half an hour, probably more than 45 minutes.
Although I probably support many of Mr Alito's views, I can certainly understand the Democratic Party's activist position that they should delay and filibuster all they can. The lines of Dylan Thomas spring to mind:
I would have challenged the quorum, as often as permitted under Senate rules (you get two supporting Senators to walk in and out during the count to confuse matters, I mean come on, do you guys need lessons?). I'd have demanded a recount (for example a Senator keeps saying "aye", "nay" and walks out), asked for the vote to be delayed because a Senator was injured in a car crash in Nevada. Someone should have pressed the Fire Alarm. Activists should have stormed the Chamber, pretending to be anti-abortionists shouting that Mr Alito was going-to "sell-out", someone should have tossed glue into the hair of Senator Dole. Someone should have got a public endorsement for Mr Alito from Al Jazeera.
Instead Senator Kerry made a scaremongering speech that was three months too late and Senator Kennedy made a screech that will be described as "passionate" but which I though was rambling in content. The Reverend Doctor Ian Paisley, would have done it sooo much better. There's something to be said for fire and brimstone preachers: they can make it sound like the Earth is going to open up and swallow us all.
I mean, this is it. The Supreme Court is now lost to liberalism until either John Roberts discovers his feminine side or Clarence Thomas retires and there's a liberal U.S. President. Worst case scenario: it could be decades away. Imagine if a couple more liberals leave the Supreme Court and President Bush packs two more conservatives in? Roe vs. Wade? At least the states can decide and a trip to California, Massachusetts or New York won't be a huge financial constraint. We're talking challenges to any gun control, federal anti-discrimination laws, election laws as we know them, even the Social Security system.
It has taken a while to reach the century mark (I started on July 13 2004), and I intend that the 200th posting will be during 2006.
Most of my readers seem to come my way from searches for "Canadian election polls" or "Palestinian authority election". It's always great to be near the top of a search for such general news stories. I guess it also means that I'm not good at getting into other sites' blogrolls, many people's news aggregators or in the frequently accessed part of "my favourites" tool on browsers.
I also watched my first ever U.S. Senate debate and vote yesterday evening: the cloture vote (a "guillotine vote" in the U.K.) on the debate over nominating Judge Samuel A. Alito as a member of the U.S. Supreme Court (roll call here). I think this is the most important democratic event in 2006, given the power that the U.S. Supreme Court has to overturn the law, and decide on disputed elections. The vote seemed to take ages longer than necessary, over half an hour, probably more than 45 minutes.
Although I probably support many of Mr Alito's views, I can certainly understand the Democratic Party's activist position that they should delay and filibuster all they can. The lines of Dylan Thomas spring to mind:
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
I would have challenged the quorum, as often as permitted under Senate rules (you get two supporting Senators to walk in and out during the count to confuse matters, I mean come on, do you guys need lessons?). I'd have demanded a recount (for example a Senator keeps saying "aye", "nay" and walks out), asked for the vote to be delayed because a Senator was injured in a car crash in Nevada. Someone should have pressed the Fire Alarm. Activists should have stormed the Chamber, pretending to be anti-abortionists shouting that Mr Alito was going-to "sell-out", someone should have tossed glue into the hair of Senator Dole. Someone should have got a public endorsement for Mr Alito from Al Jazeera.
Instead Senator Kerry made a scaremongering speech that was three months too late and Senator Kennedy made a screech that will be described as "passionate" but which I though was rambling in content. The Reverend Doctor Ian Paisley, would have done it sooo much better. There's something to be said for fire and brimstone preachers: they can make it sound like the Earth is going to open up and swallow us all.
I mean, this is it. The Supreme Court is now lost to liberalism until either John Roberts discovers his feminine side or Clarence Thomas retires and there's a liberal U.S. President. Worst case scenario: it could be decades away. Imagine if a couple more liberals leave the Supreme Court and President Bush packs two more conservatives in? Roe vs. Wade? At least the states can decide and a trip to California, Massachusetts or New York won't be a huge financial constraint. We're talking challenges to any gun control, federal anti-discrimination laws, election laws as we know them, even the Social Security system.
It has taken a while to reach the century mark (I started on July 13 2004), and I intend that the 200th posting will be during 2006.
Most of my readers seem to come my way from searches for "Canadian election polls" or "Palestinian authority election". It's always great to be near the top of a search for such general news stories. I guess it also means that I'm not good at getting into other sites' blogrolls, many people's news aggregators or in the frequently accessed part of "my favourites" tool on browsers.
1/24/2006
Canada results: Conservative minority government
Link to results.
Analysis: Conservatives met expected result, 124 seats.
Liberals did a bit better than polls and spread betters forecast, 103 seats.
Especially note the good Liberal result in seats in Quebec, where they won far more seats than Conservatives with fewer votes.
So although this is a hammering for the Liberals, no doubt because of the persistent scandals, the party machine is still in pretty good shape. A change of leader will happen, so now the best favour the Tories could do for the Liberals is clean up Canadian politics for the next five years. the Liberals simply need to support any anti-corruption measures to regain credibility. (But will they?)
Analysis: Conservatives met expected result, 124 seats.
Liberals did a bit better than polls and spread betters forecast, 103 seats.
Especially note the good Liberal result in seats in Quebec, where they won far more seats than Conservatives with fewer votes.
So although this is a hammering for the Liberals, no doubt because of the persistent scandals, the party machine is still in pretty good shape. A change of leader will happen, so now the best favour the Tories could do for the Liberals is clean up Canadian politics for the next five years. the Liberals simply need to support any anti-corruption measures to regain credibility. (But will they?)
1/23/2006
More on the demographics that hit Democrats
Gadfly has more on the way that Democrats voters at U.S. presidential electors don't match up with congressional elections.
It reinforces what I've said before (in passing here) about the importance of gubernatorial elections: the more Governors a party has, the less likely the other party can gerrymander against it.
It reinforces what I've said before (in passing here) about the importance of gubernatorial elections: the more Governors a party has, the less likely the other party can gerrymander against it.
Follow the Canadian election live
You can follow the elections from a Conservative media perspective here, or by audio broadcast here.
Note for Canadian Liberal readers, these could be hilarious if the polls have seriously underestimated your party's performance today!
I regret that I can't recommend a Liberal slanted media source for today's election results. For those repelled by Conservative politics, I suggest this link for general coverage.
142 seems to be the ceiling for Conservative expectations, that's still 13 seats short of an absolute majority. The Liberals are projected to hold fewer than 100 seats, whatever projectio you look at.
BTW, it's illegal for a Canadian to blog during the voting, so expect a lot of traffic on expat sites.
Note for Canadian Liberal readers, these could be hilarious if the polls have seriously underestimated your party's performance today!
I regret that I can't recommend a Liberal slanted media source for today's election results. For those repelled by Conservative politics, I suggest this link for general coverage.
142 seems to be the ceiling for Conservative expectations, that's still 13 seats short of an absolute majority. The Liberals are projected to hold fewer than 100 seats, whatever projectio you look at.
BTW, it's illegal for a Canadian to blog during the voting, so expect a lot of traffic on expat sites.
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