Link to results.
Analysis: Conservatives met expected result, 124 seats.
Liberals did a bit better than polls and spread betters forecast, 103 seats.
Especially note the good Liberal result in seats in Quebec, where they won far more seats than Conservatives with fewer votes.
So although this is a hammering for the Liberals, no doubt because of the persistent scandals, the party machine is still in pretty good shape. A change of leader will happen, so now the best favour the Tories could do for the Liberals is clean up Canadian politics for the next five years. the Liberals simply need to support any anti-corruption measures to regain credibility. (But will they?)
1/23/2006
More on the demographics that hit Democrats
Gadfly has more on the way that Democrats voters at U.S. presidential electors don't match up with congressional elections.
It reinforces what I've said before (in passing here) about the importance of gubernatorial elections: the more Governors a party has, the less likely the other party can gerrymander against it.
It reinforces what I've said before (in passing here) about the importance of gubernatorial elections: the more Governors a party has, the less likely the other party can gerrymander against it.
Follow the Canadian election live
You can follow the elections from a Conservative media perspective here, or by audio broadcast here.
Note for Canadian Liberal readers, these could be hilarious if the polls have seriously underestimated your party's performance today!
I regret that I can't recommend a Liberal slanted media source for today's election results. For those repelled by Conservative politics, I suggest this link for general coverage.
142 seems to be the ceiling for Conservative expectations, that's still 13 seats short of an absolute majority. The Liberals are projected to hold fewer than 100 seats, whatever projectio you look at.
BTW, it's illegal for a Canadian to blog during the voting, so expect a lot of traffic on expat sites.
Note for Canadian Liberal readers, these could be hilarious if the polls have seriously underestimated your party's performance today!
I regret that I can't recommend a Liberal slanted media source for today's election results. For those repelled by Conservative politics, I suggest this link for general coverage.
142 seems to be the ceiling for Conservative expectations, that's still 13 seats short of an absolute majority. The Liberals are projected to hold fewer than 100 seats, whatever projectio you look at.
BTW, it's illegal for a Canadian to blog during the voting, so expect a lot of traffic on expat sites.
1/22/2006
Canadian roundup on eve of poll
The round-up:
Polipundit has a running daily commentary on the Canadian election.
Did the blogosphere have an effect in Canada this time?
My guess is it must have done. The majority of my traffic for the last month has come from Canada, and hundreds of people finding this site from a search along the lines of "latest-Canadian-election-polls" (though not usually with those strings).
If the official media loses it grip, this must help the non-conformist opposition, in this case the Conservatives. So whilst I wouldn't bet on the number of seats, it's a safe bet that the Tories are bound to show a significant percentage gain.
Forecast: Conservatives largest party, but short of a majority. No way for a Liberal win unless they've fixed it.
Polipundit has a running daily commentary on the Canadian election.
Did the blogosphere have an effect in Canada this time?
My guess is it must have done. The majority of my traffic for the last month has come from Canada, and hundreds of people finding this site from a search along the lines of "latest-Canadian-election-polls" (though not usually with those strings).
If the official media loses it grip, this must help the non-conformist opposition, in this case the Conservatives. So whilst I wouldn't bet on the number of seats, it's a safe bet that the Tories are bound to show a significant percentage gain.
Forecast: Conservatives largest party, but short of a majority. No way for a Liberal win unless they've fixed it.
Backlog of interesting links (2 of 2)
Once again apologies for the interruption in posting, and the haphazard subjects on this posting:
Three links [1, 2, 3]about the Iraqi election results (finally). Now they get to negotiate who forms the government.
Democrat blogger panicking over George Allen leading in the very early polling for the U.S. Senate in Virginia. Worth noting that Tradesports (see sidebar) have Senator Allen as a leading potential candidate for the Republicans at the 2008 presidential election.
Le Figaro's take on the start of Mexico's election campaign.
This could be an important blog posting. Or it could be yet another bit of U.S. Democrat wishful thinking for the 2008 presidential elections. Either way, I'm bookmarking this analysis, based on the normall excellent Charlie Cook (see sidebar).
What happens when terrorists win the election? We could soon find out in the Palestinian Authority.
The American Enterprise Institute (whose excellent Election Watch is on the blogroll) has a project analysing redistricting and the court cases about them.
More on those voting machines...
Mexico's election: lead changes.
A Democrat blogger asks the world if his faction should try to oust Senator Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primaries. The cheque from Karl Rove is in the post.
Palestinian muscle: Le Monde reports on terrorist action designed to swing Palestinian votes.
The U.S.A.'s Federal Elections Commission (a pretty poor operation in my view) is promising podcasts soon. How about sorting out voter registration, polling station closing times, exit polls, media reporting results while votes are still being counted, frauds of every kind in the counting process, and a sensible system for settling disputed results? Also, how about sorting out the absurd election spending regulations and attempts to gag bloggers? Obviously not sexy enough or beyond the competence of the F.E.C..
Problems with voting machines, yet again in California.
Egyptian government releases members of the Muslim Brotherhood after the recent elections, in which the Islamist party gained an impressive number of seats in the parliament.
News from Pennsylvania's gubernatorial election in the U.S.A..
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas promises to resign if he doesn't get a mandate from the assembly elections.
Spanish court orders re-trial of Basque terrorist suspect. This affects the legality of the Basque political parties, so it's worth following.
News from Ohio's U.S. Senate primaries.
Three months ahead of elections in Peru, evidence that Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) may be re-emerging, according to Le Monde.
Ehud Olmet takes over as leader of Israel's Kadima party, as Ariel Sharon remains in a coma.
Democrats delay vote for Judge Samuel Alito, for a week. This could turn out to be the most important election in the U.S. for a decade, so although it won't work, I don't blame them.
First African female president is sworn in after winning in Liberia.
Three links [1, 2, 3]about the Iraqi election results (finally). Now they get to negotiate who forms the government.
Democrat blogger panicking over George Allen leading in the very early polling for the U.S. Senate in Virginia. Worth noting that Tradesports (see sidebar) have Senator Allen as a leading potential candidate for the Republicans at the 2008 presidential election.
Le Figaro's take on the start of Mexico's election campaign.
This could be an important blog posting. Or it could be yet another bit of U.S. Democrat wishful thinking for the 2008 presidential elections. Either way, I'm bookmarking this analysis, based on the normall excellent Charlie Cook (see sidebar).
What happens when terrorists win the election? We could soon find out in the Palestinian Authority.
The American Enterprise Institute (whose excellent Election Watch is on the blogroll) has a project analysing redistricting and the court cases about them.
More on those voting machines...
Mexico's election: lead changes.
A Democrat blogger asks the world if his faction should try to oust Senator Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primaries. The cheque from Karl Rove is in the post.
Palestinian muscle: Le Monde reports on terrorist action designed to swing Palestinian votes.
The U.S.A.'s Federal Elections Commission (a pretty poor operation in my view) is promising podcasts soon. How about sorting out voter registration, polling station closing times, exit polls, media reporting results while votes are still being counted, frauds of every kind in the counting process, and a sensible system for settling disputed results? Also, how about sorting out the absurd election spending regulations and attempts to gag bloggers? Obviously not sexy enough or beyond the competence of the F.E.C..
Problems with voting machines, yet again in California.
Egyptian government releases members of the Muslim Brotherhood after the recent elections, in which the Islamist party gained an impressive number of seats in the parliament.
News from Pennsylvania's gubernatorial election in the U.S.A..
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas promises to resign if he doesn't get a mandate from the assembly elections.
Spanish court orders re-trial of Basque terrorist suspect. This affects the legality of the Basque political parties, so it's worth following.
News from Ohio's U.S. Senate primaries.
Three months ahead of elections in Peru, evidence that Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) may be re-emerging, according to Le Monde.
Ehud Olmet takes over as leader of Israel's Kadima party, as Ariel Sharon remains in a coma.
Democrats delay vote for Judge Samuel Alito, for a week. This could turn out to be the most important election in the U.S. for a decade, so although it won't work, I don't blame them.
First African female president is sworn in after winning in Liberia.
Bias
I oppose vote rigging and I oppose electoral systems that make it easy.
The U.S. Democratic Party activists who slashed tyres in Milwaukee were no less criminals than if they'd shot up a polling station at peak time, or planted blazing crosses in front of the homes of their opponents.
Next time a Democrat moans about "vote rigging" in Ohio in 2004, or Florida in 2000, or any other place where they just didn't get enough votes to win, remember this case.
And yes, I would run this story if it were Republicans that escaped justice on a technicality...
[hat-tip to Instapundit]
The U.S. Democratic Party activists who slashed tyres in Milwaukee were no less criminals than if they'd shot up a polling station at peak time, or planted blazing crosses in front of the homes of their opponents.
Next time a Democrat moans about "vote rigging" in Ohio in 2004, or Florida in 2000, or any other place where they just didn't get enough votes to win, remember this case.
And yes, I would run this story if it were Republicans that escaped justice on a technicality...
[hat-tip to Instapundit]
1/20/2006
Backlog of interesting links (1 of 2)
Just once in a while, I go through my Newsgator clippings and decide that some of the stories are worth publishing anyway, so here goes:
When Le Monde says the Iraqi elections have come off without too many irregularities, you know they couldn't find any!
A Democrat rightly forecast the Bachelet victory in Chile's presidential election run-off.
Election law reform in the U.S. state of Georgia.
A complacent - and no doubt Democratic Party supporting - report opposing election law reform in that shambles Washington state.
A thoughtful piece about election law reform. I've views on this elsewhere on this blog.
Why Hillary Clinton shouldn't run for U.S. President, according to a Democrat fan writing in Time magazine.
When Le Monde says the Iraqi elections have come off without too many irregularities, you know they couldn't find any!
A Democrat rightly forecast the Bachelet victory in Chile's presidential election run-off.
Election law reform in the U.S. state of Georgia.
A complacent - and no doubt Democratic Party supporting - report opposing election law reform in that shambles Washington state.
A thoughtful piece about election law reform. I've views on this elsewhere on this blog.
Why Hillary Clinton shouldn't run for U.S. President, according to a Democrat fan writing in Time magazine.
1/19/2006
Democracy Watch give "F" grade to Canada's Liberals
If the Liberals avoid defeat in Canada's general election next Monday (January 23), it will be an extraordinary comeback. The public bickering among opponents to Stephen Harper's Conservatives is a bad sign for Liberals and suggests that they are conducting what I guess we can call their pre-post-mortem.
The news [via Canada TV] that Democracy Watch has awarded a "B" for overall integrity and accountability to the front-running Tories in the election polls, compared with an "F" to the ironically named "Liberal" government, is a summary of why the election result deserves to be a change of régime.
Remember, Democracy Watch scored the parties on what they said they would do if elected. So anyone with an "F" for promises...
The news [via Canada TV] that Democracy Watch has awarded a "B" for overall integrity and accountability to the front-running Tories in the election polls, compared with an "F" to the ironically named "Liberal" government, is a summary of why the election result deserves to be a change of régime.
Remember, Democracy Watch scored the parties on what they said they would do if elected. So anyone with an "F" for promises...
12/21/2005
Electioneering in Israel and Palestine
It's probably a bad idea for parliamentary election campaigns to be held at the same time for the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) and the Palestinian Authority. The opportunity for brinkmanship, provocation, violence, and stirring up of revanchiste passions is not conducive for election results that all participants can live with.
Two incidents reported today are clearly aimed at helping Likud in the Israeli elections, but they seem more likely to have an impact on the Palestinian vote.
First, the BBC reports that a row has erupted between the Israeli and Palestinian authorities over the decision to bar Palestinians living in Jerusalem from voting in the Palestinian election next month (January 15 2006).
The Israeli government's argument is that allowing East Jerusalem's Palestinians to vote would give Hamas power. It is hard to see that preventing some Palestinians from voting will encourage the others to vote for moderate candidates. In fact, the decision allows the Palestinian Authority's ruling party to cancel the election and blame the Israelis.
Second, as if to underscore the notion among Palestinians that Hamas is the real power in the Palestinian Authority, news that Zayid Khalil Moussa, a commander of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades (a leading Hamas terrorist group) has been killed in a shoot-out with Israeli troops in Jenin. One Israeli border guard was wounded.
Both incidents are of course aimed at encouraging Israeli voters to back either Likud or the new Kadima party, in advance of their March 28 2006 showdown.
Two incidents reported today are clearly aimed at helping Likud in the Israeli elections, but they seem more likely to have an impact on the Palestinian vote.
First, the BBC reports that a row has erupted between the Israeli and Palestinian authorities over the decision to bar Palestinians living in Jerusalem from voting in the Palestinian election next month (January 15 2006).
The Israeli government's argument is that allowing East Jerusalem's Palestinians to vote would give Hamas power. It is hard to see that preventing some Palestinians from voting will encourage the others to vote for moderate candidates. In fact, the decision allows the Palestinian Authority's ruling party to cancel the election and blame the Israelis.
Second, as if to underscore the notion among Palestinians that Hamas is the real power in the Palestinian Authority, news that Zayid Khalil Moussa, a commander of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades (a leading Hamas terrorist group) has been killed in a shoot-out with Israeli troops in Jenin. One Israeli border guard was wounded.
Both incidents are of course aimed at encouraging Israeli voters to back either Likud or the new Kadima party, in advance of their March 28 2006 showdown.
Rumours of election fraud in Iraq
With a two-week blackout period between the closing of polls in Iraq and the publication of official election returns, a great deal of speculation is going around, particularly about Shi'ite candidates doing unexpectedly well in Bagdad.
The shortage of external links in this posting on Iraq the Model, is an indication that we're not dealing with much published information.
More updates as I get them. For the record, this is what I wrote before the elections began.
The shortage of external links in this posting on Iraq the Model, is an indication that we're not dealing with much published information.
More updates as I get them. For the record, this is what I wrote before the elections began.
Democrats hold second place in O.C.
The election for the 48th congressional district of the U.S. House of Representatives ended, predictably, as a victory for the Republican candidate, Mr john Campbell [click here for official results].
I previewed the election here.
Despite considerable media attention, Jim Gilchrist, the candidate for tighter immigration controls failed to hold the second placed he held in the first round of voting. Democrat Steve Young is publicly gloating his second place, but the truth is that there was no fright for the Republicans to be had.
Local media comments on the election can be found here, and here.
The special election isn't really a disappointment for the Democrats, but if we take national polls [compiled by RealClear Politics] and compare them to this result, it is clear that claims of a Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives in 2006 are wildly optimistic.
I previewed the election here.
Despite considerable media attention, Jim Gilchrist, the candidate for tighter immigration controls failed to hold the second placed he held in the first round of voting. Democrat Steve Young is publicly gloating his second place, but the truth is that there was no fright for the Republicans to be had.
Local media comments on the election can be found here, and here.
The special election isn't really a disappointment for the Democrats, but if we take national polls [compiled by RealClear Politics] and compare them to this result, it is clear that claims of a Democrat takeover of the House of Representatives in 2006 are wildly optimistic.
12/12/2005
US Supreme Court to consider Texas gerrymandering cases
The U.S. Supreme Court is to review laws concerning the drawing up of congressional districts in the individual states, following complaints about the election of Republican members to the Federal House of Representatives.
Election Law blog carries an analysis on the possible effects of the appointment of two new supreme court justices since the last similar case in 2004.
Election Law blog carries an analysis on the possible effects of the appointment of two new supreme court justices since the last similar case in 2004.
Opinion Poll suggests that Iraqi elections will succeed
To the almost palpable amazement of much of the world's media, Iraqi public opinion (as far as it can be measured) remains doggedly optimistic about the future. People seem to be generally optimistic about their own lives (70%), rather than the general outlook for the country (44%), by support for the elections is high, with even a substantial minority of people in Sunni areas supporting them. It's intriguing to note that these figures are substantially better than for either the U.S. or the British administrations.
My tip: a higher turnout than in the last U.K. or U.S. general elections, to say nothing of the turnout in European constitution referendums!
There are positive political signs as well. Three-quarters of Iraqis express confidence in the national elections being held this week, 70 percent approve of the new constitution, and 70 percent — including most people in Sunni and Shiite areas alike — want Iraq to remain a unified country.
Interest in politics has soared.
Preference for a democratic political structure has advanced, to 57 percent of Iraqis, while support for an Islamic state has lost ground, to 14 percent (the rest, 26 percent, chiefly in Sunni Arab areas, favor a "single strong leader.")
My tip: a higher turnout than in the last U.K. or U.S. general elections, to say nothing of the turnout in European constitution referendums!
President Mubarak names women and Copts as "top-up" members of parliament
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has appointed five women and five Coptic Christians as members of Egypt's parliament after last week's final round of elections (report on earlier round here).
The Egyptian parliament has 454 members, most of whom are elected in stages.
The Egyptian parliament has 454 members, most of whom are elected in stages.
Early tip for Democrat challenger to Hillary Clinton
My early tip for a challenger to Hillary Clinton, outgoing Virginia Governor Mark Warner, has raised $2.5 million in what has been described as a "coming out party." I have commented earlier about the choice of Democratic candidate for the next U.S. presidential election of 2008.
Warner's approval ratings in Virginia ran to 80% and he is widely credited in having facilitated the election of his Democratic successor Tim Kaine. His problems at the moment are the relative low name recognition that Warner has outside the South, the superstar status and likely fundraising power of Senator Hillary Clinton (New York).
At this stage, I see no sign of a strong Republican candidate other than the aging and divisive (among Republicans) Senator John McCain. Right now, I would predict a Democrat win in 2008 if McCain is going to be the Republican nominee, against either Senator Clinton or ex-Governor Warner.
Warner's approval ratings in Virginia ran to 80% and he is widely credited in having facilitated the election of his Democratic successor Tim Kaine. His problems at the moment are the relative low name recognition that Warner has outside the South, the superstar status and likely fundraising power of Senator Hillary Clinton (New York).
At this stage, I see no sign of a strong Republican candidate other than the aging and divisive (among Republicans) Senator John McCain. Right now, I would predict a Democrat win in 2008 if McCain is going to be the Republican nominee, against either Senator Clinton or ex-Governor Warner.
Chile election goes to run-off
Reports here and here, from Chile suggest that Michelle Bachelet, the leading candidate for the presidency, is a shoo-in for the second round with her estimated 45% of the first round vote.
The truth is somewhat different. Joaquin Lavin, the right-wing candidate who finished third with about 23% of the vote has endorsed his rival Sebastian Pinera (who scored over 25%, and urged his supporters to back a united right-wing campaign in the second round.
If the Socialist candidate were perceived as promoting actual socialist policies, it seems almost certain that she would be defeated in the second round of voting. However, with the economy generally in good shape thanks to the Left's stable economic policies over the past 15 years, we may see a less than total mobilization of conservative voters.
Don't bet the house either way (yet) on this one!
The truth is somewhat different. Joaquin Lavin, the right-wing candidate who finished third with about 23% of the vote has endorsed his rival Sebastian Pinera (who scored over 25%, and urged his supporters to back a united right-wing campaign in the second round.
If the Socialist candidate were perceived as promoting actual socialist policies, it seems almost certain that she would be defeated in the second round of voting. However, with the economy generally in good shape thanks to the Left's stable economic policies over the past 15 years, we may see a less than total mobilization of conservative voters.
Don't bet the house either way (yet) on this one!
12/08/2005
Riots at Egyptian polling stations
It's easy to have a non-violent election: just make sure that all the parties agree to lose the next election and/or the one after that.
Balanced News Blog reports on violence at yesterday's final round of voting for the Egyptian parliament. The government's claims that the riots were provoked do not seem to be backed up by foreign reporters (but then this is the crew that showed us the return of Ayatollah Khomeni to Iran in 1979 as the dawn of democracy in that country, and informs us that two car bombs a day in Bagdad is evidence of a massive insurgency).
A shockingly naive view of Islamist politics, but which contains details of government repression in trying to limit Muslim Brotherhood election gains can be found in the New York Times [subscription may be required].
I may be doing the Muslim Brotherhood an injustice (I would be happy to stand corrected). I recall that in October 1992 for instance, it was Islamic volunteer efforts, allied to the Brotherhood, not the government, which organized effective relief efforts (food, water, tents) after the Cairo earthquake. The suspicion remains whether the appetite for democracy by Islamist parties is down to their failure to effect regime change through violence, and if they would allow an election to take place in which a non-Islamic party took their place in power. The historical evidence appears to be non-existent on the latter score.
The Egyptian government should never of course have repressed its citizens for so long that only an Islamist party offers an alternative. The Copts (Egypt's Christian minority) must be looking South at the genocidal warfare in the Sudan and wondering if the same could happen in Egypt.
Balanced News Blog reports on violence at yesterday's final round of voting for the Egyptian parliament. The government's claims that the riots were provoked do not seem to be backed up by foreign reporters (but then this is the crew that showed us the return of Ayatollah Khomeni to Iran in 1979 as the dawn of democracy in that country, and informs us that two car bombs a day in Bagdad is evidence of a massive insurgency).
A shockingly naive view of Islamist politics, but which contains details of government repression in trying to limit Muslim Brotherhood election gains can be found in the New York Times [subscription may be required].
I may be doing the Muslim Brotherhood an injustice (I would be happy to stand corrected). I recall that in October 1992 for instance, it was Islamic volunteer efforts, allied to the Brotherhood, not the government, which organized effective relief efforts (food, water, tents) after the Cairo earthquake. The suspicion remains whether the appetite for democracy by Islamist parties is down to their failure to effect regime change through violence, and if they would allow an election to take place in which a non-Islamic party took their place in power. The historical evidence appears to be non-existent on the latter score.
The Egyptian government should never of course have repressed its citizens for so long that only an Islamist party offers an alternative. The Copts (Egypt's Christian minority) must be looking South at the genocidal warfare in the Sudan and wondering if the same could happen in Egypt.
12/07/2005
Traffic interruption
Apologies for no posting for a couple of days.
My laptop and online connection was commandeered in an emergency.
Business resumes in the morning.
My laptop and online connection was commandeered in an emergency.
Business resumes in the morning.
12/05/2005
Paper trail
Pretty good post on Count Every Vote.
Just to make clear, I don't buy the 2004 "Ohio vote was stolen" line, at least in the sense that I doubt if the Republicans did anything worse than the Democrats did. As for the canard of exit polls: the early returns in 2004 were wrong because they were unrepresentative. Period. Exit polls always will have discrepancies with the counted result because 1) older conservatives generally don't brag about it to pollsters, 2) whoever thinks they're the minority may feel intimidated.
My only quibble with paper voting is the ridiculous "push a pencil through the perforation" system that gave use "hanging chads", "dimple chads" "pregnant chads" and months of wrangling in 2000.
If it's reasonable to expect an illiterate person to sign with an "X", I can't see why putting an "X" in a box won't do on a ballot paper. Many countries put party logos on the ballot paper, which should be enough for someone who can't read.
The only exceptions I can think of are blind people and those who can't hold a pencil. Worst case scenario there is to have proxy voting, but I'm sure there are viable alternatives.
Just to make clear, I don't buy the 2004 "Ohio vote was stolen" line, at least in the sense that I doubt if the Republicans did anything worse than the Democrats did. As for the canard of exit polls: the early returns in 2004 were wrong because they were unrepresentative. Period. Exit polls always will have discrepancies with the counted result because 1) older conservatives generally don't brag about it to pollsters, 2) whoever thinks they're the minority may feel intimidated.
My only quibble with paper voting is the ridiculous "push a pencil through the perforation" system that gave use "hanging chads", "dimple chads" "pregnant chads" and months of wrangling in 2000.
If it's reasonable to expect an illiterate person to sign with an "X", I can't see why putting an "X" in a box won't do on a ballot paper. Many countries put party logos on the ballot paper, which should be enough for someone who can't read.
The only exceptions I can think of are blind people and those who can't hold a pencil. Worst case scenario there is to have proxy voting, but I'm sure there are viable alternatives.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
